Ehhh, I don't have enough data, yours included, to really think otherwise. The unique opportunity of being a low-eqd plat pro like I am is to know where the platpro/plat line is. Which is why I am bothering posting my stats here lately. I don't know where the CK/exec plat lines are or the exec plat/platpro lines are, maybe on these lists the top couple are anywhere from relatively low-EQD exec plats all the way to CKs on each flight. All I know, is that on my flights this summer, the platpro/plat line is something like 20th out of 35 most of the time. (3 out of 12 at best if one of the airports isn't an AA hub. And the number of F seats open are somewhere between 0 and 1). Thus, if a Plat or a Gold here asks the question, what is my chances of clearing an upgrade on a domestic weekday daytime flight between two mid to major airports, my answer is simply that there is no chance in heaven nor hell that that upgrade clears.