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Air Canada rouge, a leisure airline

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Old May 5, 2014, 8:21 pm
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Last edit by: Arcanum
Flights operated by Air Canada rouge

NOTE: Rouge Wifi information can be found here
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-c...l#post28448087

Dates in brackets indicate planned start of rouge service (either as a new route or replacing mainline service). ML placed before a date indicates the date that service is reverting to mainline.

All Airbus A319/A321 service is in the new Premium Rouge configuration with 2x2J seats. All other routes are Boeing 767-300ER aircraft in a 24J/258Y layout.

Airport codes in blue indicate that these routes are Boeing 767-300ER aircraft for all services.
Airport codes in red indicate that these routes are split between Boeing 767-300ER and Airbus services.
Airport codes in black indicate that these routes are Airbus aircraft for all services.

Routes are organized based on the established rouge bases of YYZ, YUL, YYC, and YVR

*Seasonal Summer Service

YYZ
Canada
YQT YQY YXX YLW YYG (02MAY-OCT) YDF YQB YQM (01MAY19) YFC (01JUL19)

USA
MCO TPA LAS FLL HNL SRQ RSW SAN PHX MIA PSP (14DEC16)

Mexico
CUN PVR SJD

Caribbean
KIN NAS LIR GND MBJ AZS CCC CUR HUX PUJ POP SKB SJO SXM LRM HOG SNU UVF VRA BGI (07JAN) POS (21DEC16)

Europe
ATH BCN EDI VCE MAN LIS PRG BUD GLA LGW

Central and South America
LIM BOG PTY

YUL
USA
LAS MCO FLL PBI TPA MIA

Mexico
CUN MEX PVR (18NOV16)

Caribbean
ZSA CCC HOG PUJ SNU PLS POP PAP NAS (17JAN) PTP

Europe
FCO ATH BCN NCE VCE

Central and South America
SJO (22DEC16)

Africa
CMN

YYC
Canada
YHZ* YHM (2016)

USA
LAS PHX (winter only - PHX AC Express in summer)

YVR
USA
LAS HNL OGG PHX PSP KOA SAN (02JUN)

Mexico
CUN PVR

Asia
KIX

Europe
DUB LGA KEF


What to Do If Your Flight Has Been Rouged According to the AC Rep "Air Canada Altitude": call AC Reservations, cancel and get a refund.
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Air Canada rouge, a leisure airline

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Old Oct 27, 2014, 2:49 pm
  #3871  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
I'd imagine forward bookings on YYZHNL are in the toilet.
Delayed route commencement, early seasonal pull down (at best). Just 4 months after the route is announced.
This thing is a goner, IMO.
Its a 10 hour flight. Most people go south for a week... Too long to go for a week.

That said they never loaded it year round in the system at any point. Perhaps it was always meant to be seasonal.
LittleYHZ is offline  
Old Oct 27, 2014, 2:54 pm
  #3872  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Originally Posted by winnipegrev
I think YVR-LAS is being reduced to 1x/day from 2 sometime in 2015 as well. Not sure if YYZ-HNL is really a cancellation or just being made seasonal.

As for year round YYZ-HNL, I guess it doesn't make much sense to be operating a long low yield route like that in peak summer temperatures when they can instead operate a turn to western Europe in addition to e.g. a MCO round-trip utilizing the same aircraft.
YVR LAS was originally 1X a day seasonally increased to 2X a day. It makes sense it would fall back in the summer.

Rouge is also aircraft tight... Its only getting 25 319s by the end of winter instead of 30 when the schedule was planned... At the Q2 results this was because they'd not been successful in getting the 10 larger narrow body aircraft they needed to keep things running and get rid of the first tranche of EMB 190s... It was my takeaway from that that the EMBs are going the 319s will stay where they are and keep things going, and rouge will have to make due with less narrow bodies. At the same time they cancelled the 2016 retirement of 2 67s to transfer them to rouge...

I've suspected since the beginning though that YYZ HNL would be a one off wonder. If the volume was there Transat would already be on it...
LittleYHZ is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2014, 7:16 am
  #3873  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
That said they never loaded it year round in the system at any point. Perhaps it was always meant to be seasonal.
I've since learned this is the case.
Plans changed or the original PR announcing year round service was incorrect. It is seasonal.

I'm curious to see how (if?) YYZHNL plays out next year. I still believe the service will be canned or schedule changed to Sat/Sun mid-morning westbound.
On these long sectors, Rouge's cost edge diminishes as fuel becomes a larger component of the overall cost.
The fact it is seasonal gives us great insight into the route performance. If meeting targets, it will come back as is. If not, they can change or drop without many future bookings being affected.
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Old Oct 28, 2014, 7:50 am
  #3874  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
I've since learned this is the case.
Plans changed or the original PR announcing year round service was incorrect. It is seasonal.

I'm curious to see how (if?) YYZHNL plays out next year. I still believe the service will be canned or schedule changed to Sat/Sun mid-morning westbound.
On these long sectors, Rouge's cost edge diminishes as fuel becomes a larger component of the overall cost.
The fact it is seasonal gives us great insight into the route performance. If meeting targets, it will come back as is. If not, they can change or drop without many future bookings being affected.
Exactly. The other wild card on this, and well every route right now is the drop in fuel prices...

If fuel stays where it is, or goes lower, its going to mean many routes which were marginal are now profitable... And while the dollar is about 2 cents below AC's target - fuel is well below (they forecast 90 cents its about 75/6 CAD right now(its 64 US) where they forecast... Which would be fully realized on most international routes (not this one... Bc it originates in Ontario...) And continues to trend down...

And while I might be wrong, I think a penny on fuel is worth more than a penny on the dollar purely because of the way the business is structured.
LittleYHZ is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 4:56 am
  #3875  
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Ontario, Canada
Programs: Westjet Platinum, Fairmont Platinum RIP, Accor Gold, Marriott Lifetime Silver, HH Diamond
Posts: 1,296
Rouge to Japan!!

Just noticed this from Airfare Watchdog email this morning:

"Save on flights to Osaka with special intro deals from Air Canada rouge. Nonstop service begins May 1 from Vancouver."

You gotta be nuts to endure economy minus for this long of a flight!!

http://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/...%3A%3A141888_a
Arthurrs is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 6:35 am
  #3876  
Formerly known as tireman77
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,531
Originally Posted by Arthurrs
You gotta be nuts to endure economy minus for this long of a flight!!
You've obviously never flown Nationair....
PLeblond is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 6:44 am
  #3877  
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Originally Posted by tireman77
You've obviously never flown Nationair....
So Nationair>Air Canada Rouge.......
Q Shoe Guy is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 6:48 am
  #3878  
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Join Date: Sep 2003
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Posts: 10,658
The industrious folks of Kansai (OSAKA/KYOTO/KOBE) are also known for their thriftiness, that said I don't believe this "new" service will be well received.
Q Shoe Guy is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 6:51 am
  #3879  
Formerly known as tireman77
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,531
Originally Posted by Q Shoe Guy
So Nationair>Air Canada Rouge.......
Anyone who has flown Nationair would easily take Rouge...big time.

Wow, those DC-8s were really tightly packed.
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Old Oct 29, 2014, 7:09 am
  #3880  
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tireman77, I find it an insult that you are comparing the discount subsidiary of the nations flag carrier to a defunct and many would say dangerous carrier flying DC8-62 ! I am old enough to remember them, although where I lived we had PWA/Transair/Nordair to sun destinations !

"The safety of the airline was often called into question but the President, Robert Obadia, vehemently denied the accusations. Eventually, it would be discovered that the airline often flew aircraft that were unairworthy, and that Transport Canada knew this, but did nothing about it, "losing" a Safety Review that cast the airline in a negative light.[citation needed] It was later found that the aircraft that crashed in Saudi Arabia was un-airworthy for several days prior to the crash, and that staff had altered documentation in order for the flight to depart on July 11, 1991"
Q Shoe Guy is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 7:25 am
  #3881  
Formerly known as tireman77
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 5,531
Originally Posted by Q Shoe Guy
tireman77, I find it an insult that you are comparing the discount subsidiary of the nations flag carrier to a defunct and many would say dangerous carrier flying DC8-62 ! I am old enough to remember them, although where I lived we had PWA/Transair/Nordair to sun destinations !

"The safety of the airline was often called into question but the President, Robert Obadia, vehemently denied the accusations. Eventually, it would be discovered that the airline often flew aircraft that were unairworthy, and that Transport Canada knew this, but did nothing about it, "losing" a Safety Review that cast the airline in a negative light.[citation needed] It was later found that the aircraft that crashed in Saudi Arabia was un-airworthy for several days prior to the crash, and that staff had altered documentation in order for the flight to depart on July 11, 1991"
I think you are misunderstanding my statements. If you look back, I have been defending the idea of Rouge out here. I understand it and agree to why they have brought it in.

I find TS et. al. to be less than 'safe', in my opinion. If I have a choice between a charter type discount carrier flying old planes bought after being operated by 3rd world carriers, or Rouge..for me the choice is easy.

I flew Nationair when I was a "child" and didn't know better. I believe AC was operating DC-8s back then too.
PLeblond is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 8:04 am
  #3882  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by Q Shoe Guy
The industrious folks of Kansai (OSAKA/KYOTO/KOBE) are also known for their thriftiness, that said I don't believe this "new" service will be well received.
What type of product/service would you recommend for a region unwilling to pay viable longhaul mainline fares?
CloudsBelow is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 8:08 am
  #3883  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
And while the dollar is about 2 cents below AC's target
I thought AC’s CAD/USD target is ~0.97?
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
- fuel is well below (they forecast 90 cents its about 75/6 CAD right now(its 64 US) where they forecast... Which would be fully realized on most international routes (not this one... Bc it originates in Ontario...) And continues to trend down...
Do you know AC's fuel hedge position?
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
And while I might be wrong, I think a penny on fuel is worth more than a penny on the dollar purely because of the way the business is structured.
Hope you're right but I personally feel the current CAD+Fuel prices will have a negative bottom-line impact to AC. We'll hear next week
CloudsBelow is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 8:50 am
  #3884  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
I thought AC’s CAD/USD target is ~0.97?

Do you know AC's fuel hedge position?

Hope you're right but I personally feel the current CAD+Fuel prices will have a negative bottom-line impact to AC. We'll hear next week
.92 was the target which the Q2 forecast was based on for dollars.

Historically has been about 30%

Fuel is down a lot more than the CAD. Fuel is their largest expense. Prices are 15 cents below what they forecast. Their forecast was 90 cents CAD for fuel. Its trading at 64 US this week... which is low 70s CAD. Hedge will hold them up, But its my understanding that every penny is worth 35 million. Vs every penny of CAD decrease below target costs 30 million on an annualized basis.

The chance that they'll be low is low, If they were not going to meet their forecasts for the quarter by an amount which was material they would have to issue a warning/updated forecast which would already have happened.

Most of the fuel decrease has been in the past 2months... Though even august was below target. Highly likely is All of the above on the July/August/September conspired to keep them on target, vs being over it or under it. Which will put them up year over, year, and on plan. But may disappoint a market which was waiting for a huge blockbuster surprise on the positive size.
LittleYHZ is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2014, 8:55 am
  #3885  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
I thought AC’s CAD/USD target is ~0.97?

Do you know AC's fuel hedge position?

Hope you're right but I personally feel the current CAD+Fuel prices will have a negative bottom-line impact to AC. We'll hear next week
Also something else to consider:

AC and airlines need to buy USD because of fuel. Air Canada doesn't need to buy the relative quantity of USD that Westjet/Transat would need to buy, especially the later. With USA POS up 32% year on year, Air Canada brings in a significant amount of sales in the currency which mitigates its impact.

A decrease in fuel prices exceeding the slide in the currency should leave all three ahead at the end of the day at least temporarily as fairs have yet to adjust.

For Air Canada it will mean if it needs to discount some of its newer routes to get them to build up, it can without loosing buckets of money. Same goes for WJ and Transat. Though I don't think Panama needs any discounting. Try buying a ticket for December... Its slim pickings.
LittleYHZ is offline  


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