You have a valid point, but look at the other side of the issue here. If UA did this every year then people could just fly 50K in the last two months and qualify for UA... if people can bank on that they might consider flying other carriers earlier in the year. I totally agree in Sharon's case DEQM would have been a good idea, but I think UA is looking at it from another angle...

There's really no way to tell unless we get specific info from United on the # of 1Ks/1Ps both for this year and next year. Barring that minor miracle, it's going to be a whole lot of speculation based on people's upgrade success rates starting 3/1/2008 :). And even then it's tainted data if you make the reasonable assumption that the average FTer is better about ensuring an upgrade than the average 1P/1K.

FWIW and IMHO, at least as configured last year, would a 3P/2P really pony up $499 to be Prem. Ex.? I think DEQM was really about lower tier getting to 1K. I don't think that there is a huge world of difference between the lower and the mid tier. Some difference, albeit I know, but not the huge difference between 1K and Prem Ex. I take this as a way to cull the 1K ranks In addition, I don't think that this makes life any better for the folks that are non 1K elites. As always, YMMV. Safe travels!!^:)

Now that the nail is in this coffin I hope UA kills 3P next. Or if they insist on keeping it add a second line for elites at airports that only have one, like say....SNA:p (yes I know self centered blah blah)

All the speculated calculations are interesting in terms of how much revenue UA could squeeze out of running this promotion and how much it will lose by choosing not to. Alas, there are no actual numbers to work with, thus no way to conclusively say.

To further add to the speculation stew, the past few years that this promotion had been offered, planes were not running full and UA certainly was on shaky financial ground. So perhaps, the financial climate for this carrier has indeed changed. There simply is no need for such promotion. I would conjecture however that the impact of these kind of promotion with regards to dilution of status is not nearly as significant enough as we all tend to assume them to have. If capacity continues to shrink, and upgrades remain competitively cut-throat, the 'feeling' of dilution will remain with or without DEQM this year.

maybe they will send us all an email jan 1 announcing the NEW DEQM bonus. DEQM's on all FULL FARE flights in jan and feb with half the eqms counted towards qualifying 2007 for 2008 status. Kinda like a fastrac for people that just missed. Now there's a twist:)

I don't have any data, just a hunch and a hope. :-) I only have trouble upgrading when I fly hub-to-hub. When I fly SEA to IAD, ORD, or SFO I never have been denied an upgrade. *knocking on wood*

Well, between that and the possible offer of buying up to your next level of elite status which was made available last year ... or was I dreaming about something like that?

Or 40K on Q-UPs (not even counting Visa EQM).

I disagree. I believe there were plenty of GMs and 2Ps who moved up to 2P, 1P and even 1K status using the DEQM promos in the past.

In fact, I'm looking forward to more upgrades clearing as a 1P with the 1K and 1P ranks not being so inflated. I think this will also make it slightly easier for 2Ps to get their upgrades to clear, too.

To be honest, I am surprised UA pulled the plug this year (I really thought they would pull the plug next year for the 2009 membership year). I agree demand will be high for premium cabin seats, but only on the newly configured aircraft, which won't be fully upgraded on the widebody fleet until the end of 2009 or 2010. It seemed a little early to pull the plug for 2008.

Nah. Maybe when the price was $99, or even $199, but once UA started selling E+ access, the DEQM program didn't make much sense for GM who can do math. To go from 2p to 1p would only earn you an extra 37k miles, might be worth $499 to some but maybe not if mileage run(s) were also required.

It is flawed because it fails to consider supply and demand.

Supply will fall as the cabins are redone and the product is at least acceptible (until now neither UA or AA business class was really competitive the last few years).

Demand will rise as regulars from the USA who normally flew foreign carriers (*A, OW) will give the home team a shot with the new product. Some may even pay C but more likely discounted C or upgrade from full-Y.

Ergo, fewer seats left for freebie upgrades like SWU and miles which don't bring in cash.

Domestically, planes are already packed so no need to stimulate demand.

All UA loses is a small amount easy cash from the DEQM, but will be offset by value of SWUs that aren't awarded and then used to take up space that might be sold or given to someone paying a higher fare.

Taking away DEQM isn't going to cause a revolt like the SWU revolt a few years ago :D Even DL got away with eliminating its never-expiring FF miles. Times have changed.

As a matter of curiousity, this is the first time I have read any of this thread. I have never needed the DEQM to make 1K (have already requalified for 2008) so it just didn't grab me.

However, now having read through some of the posts, I tend to agree that dropoff in 1K qualification for those that might have needed the DEQM and now won't make it will not have a significant impact on the ranks of 1Ks or the dilution of upgrade chances. I just don't think there are that many, but then, there is really no way of knowing.

I also think your upgrade chances are more defined by where you are flying from and the routes you fly.

I didn't use the DEQM to qualify for 1K this year, and I shouldn't need it for this year, but if it were around I would be more likely fly UA metal. At this point I have about 40K BIS travel to purchase for the rest of the year.
UA...LH...SQ...CA....AC Same EQM for all, now I will purchase based on schedule and value. DEQM added some value to buying on UA. Now that is out of the mix.

People who have both the ability and the desire to "do math" the right way are few and far between. Witness the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage industry as one recent (and very apropos) example. Many businesses thrive on the fact that most people can't or simply don't "do math."

Seems like this move would play nicely into a UA strategy of limiting outstanding SWU inventory so as to extract more revenue from gate upsells for unsold premium seats... Not that I'm arguing such a strategy exists, but it would make sense... UA can't possibly think new seats will generate a huge spike in premium cabin revenue without massive improvements in soft product. Suppressing 1K membership levels would at least shift focus, somewhat, to upsells... both on the high-value international routes and on domestic routes where 1Ks routinely deploy CR-1s and 500-milers.

You werent dreaming, they did offer a buy up to next level of elite status early this year (Feb 2007). I think it was targetted though :confused:

Others may have more info re this.

I would have liked to see the DEQM offer (but run a little earlier - hehe :), so I could have benefited - too late for me now).