That wasn't directed to me right? I overshot the 1K level in May :).

Of course not. :) Maybe you should start a new “how big” thread.:D

I think UA didn't run the promo because:

a) their revenue is up this year from previous years (per Tilton recently).

Does anyone really think UA was offering it before out of the goodness of their hearts? No. It got them additional revenue from the fees & the people doing extra trips, especially when they were in bankruptcy.

b) they didn't want everyone to 'count on it' each year.

c) they're using it as a test to see what type of dif it really does make.

My $$ are on Option A.

Given that the roll-out of the new C/F won't really take effect until later in '08 I don't see them not offering the promo because they're trying to 'thin out' the ranks (and remember, not all who go for it are going for 1K). And as far as I know SWUs & CR1s don't impact the balance sheet like miles do.

I needed the DEQM this year because my travel was down, not because I was 'counting on' the promo.

I'm in a bit of a better position than some because I do have 1P for Life being a MM. And until now I didn't look to other airlines to fly. But because of this it does have me considering it; again, not out of sour grapes but simply because of the reasons I stated in my post a few pages ago. Had they offered it I would have continued w/ my blind loyalty & not even thought of checking out the competition.

Of course the advantage of UA not running the promo is that I've saved a few thousand $$ I would have spent taking advantage of it, doing LHR MRs to get to 1K again (and ironically enough, using the SWUs to do the MRs to get to 1K again - and so the hamster goes ;) ). If I can't get to 1K, no need to fly them at all for remainder of the year.

If by chance UA does need the $$ after all I wouldn't be surprised if they did something at the end of the year saying sign up now & kick off '08 w/ DEQM for the first 2 months to continue your status or get to it faster.

Of course I also have a dif dilemma. Since UA isn't going to run DEQM, do I trade my SWUs on CC now or do I hold on to them & use them in Jan before they expire, should I decide to stick w/ UA. Something to think about.

Cheers.

I didn't mean to imply that there weren't bonus EQM programs on other airlines, just that reacting that strongly to UA discontinuing their program doesn't make sense unless there are better options out there.

Other airlines have different elite qualification levels and different benefits. It makes perfect sense to take that into account (along with such trivial details as cost and schedule convenience ;) ) when deciding where to book your travel. And maybe the effective "increase" in qualification levels at UA due to the lack of a DEQM promo is enough to change the equation for some people. But it seems that would be a relatively small crowd overall, i.e. the people who fall into the "didn't quite make it" mileage bands and who are willing to pay to make up the difference.

A much bigger factor for me will be whether I'm ever able to upgrade internationally (particularly being able to confirm in advance) once the new F/C cabins are in place. That's one of the most important factors in my equation.

Of course, E+ seating doesn't hurt either. :)

I for one expect that I'll be doing some Intl biz travel in Jan, so I am holding onto my SWUs until I know for sure that I won't want them myself. Call me selfish if you want to, but I earned 'em last year, I definitely want to use 'em if I can! :)

OK, if you are correct what happens to demand as the economy continues to weaken? Every day the news gets worse and I have to believe this is going to impact business travel and big ticket leisure travel.

I doubt they canned DEQM just to 'thin out' the ranks, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was a consideration. After all, UA has an interest in keeping the perceived value of 1K status pretty high, and if there's too much competition for the (increasingly limited) seats in the premium cabins, those SWU's won't be worth nearly as much. I'm sure it's a balancing act, and all the little changes can eventually add up to something meaningful even if the DEQM promo itself isn't responsible for that many additional 1K's.

My money would be on a completely different kind of promo, maybe along the lines of bonuses for flying more this November & December than for the same period last year. With a registration fee, of course. :)

If the FT reaction to the loss of the DEQM promo is any indication (which it may or may not be), UA may choose to "mix it up" in the future so as not to get us all spoiled on particular promos. It's much more of a gray area comparing one promo to another than canceling one like DEQM altogether.

A note of interest: I was just upgrading a ticket via the 1-K desk and asked about the double EQM. The agent said they had heard that there would be a double EQM promotion and that the email would come out between the middle and end of October. Who knows, maybe they will just target current 1Ks. Goes to show that "It ain't over 'til...." Meanwhile I'm not planning on it -- if DEQM happens I can use it to get to 125K if I decide it is worth it.

That wouldn't really work, given that last year the DEQM promo had a lot of people flying in Nov/Dec. Would be hard to fly more and now that the program isn't happening, some people (such as myself) won't be booking flights. And even if the DEQM did happen based on flying more, it's still harder to do more flights than done in previous if you were doing a lot of MRs in that 6-week period. Also, it's hard to do reverse incentives.

I don't think they'll do anything unless their revenue really drops in Q4 for some reason. If it does, then they'll come up w/ something.

A few years back it was sign up & flights through end of Feb counted retroactive to get you to 1K again. Another time they did double-mileage for flights in Jan after the first one (think that was international only), and then there was the famous 5x bonus program (that they tried to change midway) through. But again those programs were when they were in the midst of bankruptcy. That's also the time when they tried raising the fares required for SWUs to H & there was such an outcry (and subsequent drop in ressies is my guess) that they back-tracked & made them available on the lesser fares & the Sweet Spots were even good on S fares.

I don't expect any promos really, unless revenue drops.

Cheers.

I think this guy simply hadn't read the memo... If a promo is offered, it won't be in 2007.

It wouldn't really work for people who took advantage of last year's DEQM, but if they're looking to spread around the incentives year to year, it might be effective.

Not sure what this means -- you'd still be encouraging people to travel more on United. You'd just be targeting a different group than last year.

In any case, the "increase your travel" idea was just an example. I'm sure there are plenty of other things they could do, like promos for certain cities, routes, or fare classes -- whatever makes sense based on capacities, fares, etc.

That is the crux of the equation. How many times has UA had to turn down a paying C (or F) customer because they had confirmed too many SWUs? I would imagine that it is very small as IM tends to be quite conservative. Outside of this goof, the cost to UA of giving IK perks is pretty small. For 1P, the only real cost is the back-billing (if it occurs) from other *A carriers for use of their lounges when UA *G pax travel internationally. The rest of the stuff is pretty small except going from GM to 2P and getting E+ -- UA has a price on that ($349).

My bet is that they will have the offer to buy a small number of EQMs for those that are within 5K of a level -- last year, it was 10 cents per EQM. Given the above, that would be pure profit for UA.

Interestingly, the T&Cs do not specifically exclude gov't fares... you'd think they would, but they don't. Maybe just an oversight... but who knows. Since this offer is combinable, I'd recommend those on gov't fares to sign up anyway. :)

Seems to me UAL is still beating the bushes to fill the seats.
THis week I've received the "United Bay Area E-Fares" email offering:

San Francisco (SFO) London (LHR) $272
Washington, D.C. (IAD) Amsterdam (AMS) $252
Washington, D.C. (IAD) Brussels (BRU) $306
Washington, D.C. (IAD) Paris (CDG) $313
Washington, D.C. (IAD) Zurich (ZRH) $298

So it's clear that there are unfilled seats and now with oil prices spiking fuel prices will be trending upward.

So, is no DEQM "official" yet? :confused: