I don't think UA will officially announce they're not doing it, but since the date when it's been announced as happening has passed our 'guess' is that it's 'official'.

Cheers.

WEll if UA was planning to do it....... they should have promoted it by now.. We should have asked this Question at the SFO do last month.... :eek:

I think fare sales at this time of year are pretty normal - it's just not a high travel season except for right around Thanksgiving and Christmas/winter break. You could find the same fares at the same time last year with the DEQM promo.

Why United should have a DEQM program for 2007
 

After reading all the posts I thought about other reasons for having a DEQM:

1. There's an emotional relationship between UA FFs who know and use this program and UAL.

Not having one in 2007 means a break in this connection ranging from mild disappointment all the way to "I'm looking elsewhere". The prime example of this type of damage is when Apple lowered prices and dropped models of their iPhone within ~60 days of launch and this is to their loyal fans.

United should examine this aspect of loyalty and not totally believe the Data warehouse query analysis used by marketing.

2. On the subject of loyalty and thinning out the 1K ranks.

This makes no sense from a marketing and loyalty viewpoint for several reasons. United's prime goals after (revenue, growth, margins,...) must be loyalty. Otherwise, everyone will be flying on the lowest-cost carriers.

United should be increasing the ranks if for no other reason than competition: each 1K's travel dollar means one less for the competition.

United's new customer relations director has stated increasing the 1k experience.

United should have the largest number of 1Ks among all the airlines.

3. As far as the new C class seating with less C seats.

This sounds right from one aspect but I agree with other posters that this is way too soon and could be controlled (say, no upgrades released til xx hours before).

But, just having an upgraded C seat isn't enough. all the competition has to do is ratchet up the stakes and now it's just catch-up product to the others. In fact, it would be easy to do this (6 entrees to choose from, a wine cellar on board, a designated-chef to do the main course, movie selections other than the recent 10 or so, wifi surfing, voip, etc). For me, wifi/voip beats lie-flat esp for morning flights.

Counting on revenue with an upgraded product - lessons are VW's Phaeton and Mercedes' Maybach - build it and they may not come running.

If they want increased revenue with an upgraded product there are dozens of ways to do this without thinning the ranks.

4. Another reason for not killing the DEQM program.

we've come to expect this - year over year. And yes it's United's decision BUT as consumers we have come to depend on this as a sign of loyalty and appreciation from United. Much as 0 APR (cars), no payments til 2010 (furniture), etc it has become part of United marketing.

Since United hasn't officially stated why it continued the program (we speculate about cash and loads) and its benefits to United - I offer the following:

make the 2007 DEQM a better program than before. Benefits:
1. Stronger loyalty for all members
2. Stronger, larger 1K base
3. Message to American, BA, SQ,...: My 1K force is bigger than yours
4. Eliminate all straying from the United member force.

And this leads to my last major reason:

5. Among the CEOs in silicon valley I hear about, they're concerned about a possible recession. And one of the things they are doing is to increase the cash holdings, and increasing the cash flow. We haven't seen the end of the sub-prime issues (it's another 2 years for the sub-primers who signed up just before the issue went big).

To this end, I suggest that United hedge their bets and maximize cash flow by introducing a DEQM program for 2007.

Brand loyalty should be the most important initiative for United.

As for my own personal DEQM usage, I haved used DEQM to get premier status for my wife (I haven't needed it to break 1K miles). And yes, IAD has been difficult to get upgrades (1 in 6) and yes, transpacific and latin american upgrades are difficult to get. But not getting one doesn't invalidate all the benefits I get from being 1K.

Not sure if this is representative of the general population of 1ks but in my office with about 12 people running all over the world, I'm the only one who's on FT and uses the DEQM program. All of the 1K and 2Ks don't use either and even the 1P who are close and could be 1K with DEQM don't sign up for the DEQM program.


Thanks for reading this.

If you look carefully at the e-mail or website, you'll see that United has taken to always quoting fares "each way;" plus, the taxes and fees on some of those routes are HUGE.

I think you'll find when you compute the all-in, roundtrip price on those fares that the "savings" are not so impressive after all.

Thank God I've already squeaked out 1K.....
 

It really isnt looking very good for the program. Although UA has in the past initated new programs when they take something away- ie- give you few more weeks to qualify, etc....

You have a good analysis of the challenges facing United. With a possible economic slowdown, airline pricing and loyalty will become more elastic, but United is trying to reduce the number of its elites and therby decrease loyalty to itself.:rolleyes:

The introduction of the new business class is supposed to attract more high fare customers, but United's product already lags behind the new offerings of EK, SQ, and BA. Although this new marketing plan of United may look good as designed by some MBA exec on paper, the final result of this may be less revenue and lower profits due to driving away its elites and their purchases. What United should do is market itself as a more premium airline that offers an excellent value for its product and earn the business of elite travellers.

Good point -- perhaps they'll offer some alternative to DEQM; I wouldn't be surprised if a substitute offer ALSO involved paying a fee.

(I also wouldn't be surprised if this was already speculated on somewhere earlier in this thread. ;) )

I'm not so sure your example of Apple is a good one. From my perspective, it's exactly the opposite of the point you're trying to make. In this case, the current iPhone owners are upset that they had to obtain their phone the hard way (full price) but now Apple is letting other people obtain the same phone at a lesser cost ... sort of a "that's unfair" feeling amongst the current owners. At UA, many Elites who earned their status the "hard way" (BIS miles or segments) have expressed a similar feeling about others obtaining the same status with less effort and/or cost. Apple was hurt (PR-wise amongst current owners)because it made it easier for people to obtain the product, not because it made it more difficult (ala "No DEQM").
So in other words, I think your example portrays a reason *not* to have the DEQM, rather than having it, as I believe you were trying to convey.

I agree that travel dollars are important to UA. However, there are more and more posts here on FT each day from folks who were ready to spend $500.00 on the DEQM, but are now instead scrambling to spend a few thousand in MR's before the end of the year to keep that status. It's possible that UA may come out of this with more $$$ in the long run and perhaps only a minimal drop in Elites.

I agree with you here. The upgraded product won't necessarily mean that more people will come running with cash in hand. What's unclear is whether or not this was part of the reason for not having the DEQM this year. United hasn't made their reasoning public ... so it's all speculation. As many have opined here on FT, the lack of a DEQM promo won't necessarily tranlate to a substantial drop of Elites ... therefore your point here may in fact be moot.

Which is exactly why (some feel) UA *shouldn't* have it this year. A "promo" is supposed to be something that's occasional ... offerered when needed by the company. Earlier in this thread, someone made what I think is an excellent point .... (was it you, Lucky?) ... If the DEQM promo becomes a permanent annual offering, and people are able to count on it, then 1K becomes a status that can be obtained by flying 50K in the last part of year. 1K becomes .5K. As was further suggested, that leaves the first part of the year open to achieve status on other airlines, because you know you can get UA elite status later in the year. The whole thing could backfire on UA.


Assuming that it is true that most 1Ks achieve their status without the DEQM, then the lack of it won't have much of an effect on UA. And regarding cash flow (as I suggested earlier), it's possible that UA will raise more cash because of those who are now considering spending a few thousand dollars in MRs because of the lack of the DEQM promo.

Thanks for posting your thoughts. If nothing else, this shows the wide variance of opinions on the subject. I wish there was a way to know exactly what UA's reasoning was. We'll probably never know.

That is 100% true.
But in these days where every single airline seat sells, there is not need to do anything to pamper loyalty and to offer goodies to the elites.
Of course there is also no real need to improve the product, so UA seriously thinks that it can make the transition to a premium carrier, I guess.
The problem is that for the elites - as they know your program - you ought to offer a real program and not not just the marketing of it. And there is the air is much thinner for UA than setting random hopes in big budget full fare C & F travelers who might be interested in the new product :(.

Off to AA!
 

I agree with CaliforniaBob - great assessment.

If UA doesn't provide the DEQM program, I'm going to spend a lot more money on AA in 2008.

BTW - this program has been offered in late October in the past (never in November?), so we should know, either way, this week!

3. Message to American, BA, SQ,...: My 1K force is bigger than yours

"Because we give it away" ? :confused:


People that flew over 50,000 miles have a status, are they going to throw it out the window? I doubt it.

Nice argument for but I bet it falls on deaf ears.

But this is nothing new.

My point was that UAL taking these measures defies the theory that there is no need for DEQM because seats are already filled.

I was told by Mileage Plus in the US that the United MP service reps received a memo from WHQ stating that United would not offer the Double EQM promo this year.

your a 2P, I am sure the loss of this significant amount of revenue will surly bankrupt UA. If you need this promo, you don't fly that much, load factors are high and most planes are going out full. So Goodbye.:rolleyes: