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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Feb 22, 2024, 7:50 am
  #421  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
Smile Newbie Question regarding upgrading to Polaris w/Miles.

Hi All,

It's been quite some time since I posted, but was hoping I can get some thoughts regarding upgrading with Mileage Plus. (I apologize in advance if this is not posted in the correct area).

My wife and I are starting to travel a little more nowadays and decided to get the "United Explorer Card" We recieved a bonus of 65,000 miles, plus add some flights we have taken we now have about 82,000 miles.
We are currently booked for a trip from EWR-AMS in Premium Plus on a Tuesday at the end of April, and we thought it would be nice to treat ourselves and try to upgrade to Polaris class on the way there, and return in Premium Plus.

I spoke to a couple of reps at United that said you can be notified from several weeks ahead, to the day of and definetly worth the experience.

Just wondering what our chances are (Myself, wife and adult son) of getting the upgrade? Is there any rhyme or rerason to the process or is it just luck, as we don't want to get our hopes up too much.

Again:
We are booked in Premium Plus
No waiting list as of today.
20 seats currently available in Polaris
Cost would be 20,000 miles PP along with $425.00 charge.


Aagain, thank you for any insight to help us on this.

Joe
9288 is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:06 am
  #422  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: AS 75K, DL Silver, UA Platinum, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Platinum + LT Gold
Posts: 10,502
You can only get advance upgrade if PZ inventory is above 0 (or 2 since there are three of you on that ticket).

I would not have any expectations of upgrade in advance, during check-in, or at the gate, especially looking for 3 seats at once.
Repooc17 is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:08 am
  #423  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
I'm guessing that means it would be the day of we would find out?
9288 is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:13 am
  #424  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: SF Bay Area
Programs: None - previously UA
Posts: 4,864
You probably have a decent chance at the upgrade. In theory because you are in Premium economy you get upgraded ahead of most upgraders from economy.
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Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:17 am
  #425  
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,406
Originally Posted by 9288
Just wondering what our chances are (Myself, wife and adult son) of getting the upgrade? Is there any rhyme or reason to the process or is it just luck, as we don't want to get our hopes up too much.
A Tuesday in April is off-peak, so that helps your chances. The waitlist is ordered by status and by cabin. Booked in Premium Plus, you will be behind all members in the plane who are upgrading using an instrument from a Global Services (the top, invitation-only tier) account, plus every Premier member who is booked in Premium Plus, but you'll be ahead of everyone booked in Economy who is upgrading using a non-Global Services instrument.

The list is dynamic -- you may be pushed down the list as Premier members book PE or Global Services members use their instruments anywhere in the plane. So, yeah, I'd say your expectation should be to fly Premium Plus, but it's not impossible to imagine that you'll clear anytime between now and at the gate.
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Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:29 am
  #426  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by jsloan
A Tuesday in April is off-peak, so that helps your chances. The waitlist is ordered by status and by cabin. Booked in Premium Plus, you will be behind all members in the plane who are upgrading using an instrument from a Global Services (the top, invitation-only tier) account, plus every Premier member who is booked in Premium Plus, but you'll be ahead of everyone booked in Economy who is upgrading using a non-Global Services instrument.

The list is dynamic -- you may be pushed down the list as Premier members book PE or Global Services members use their instruments anywhere in the plane. So, yeah, I'd say your expectation should be to fly Premium Plus, but it's not impossible to imagine that you'll clear anytime between now and at the gate.
Thank you
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Old Feb 22, 2024, 6:25 pm
  #427  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Programs: UA 1MM
Posts: 348
Flying SFO-HKG-SFO, departing in late July, returning mid-August.

What are the best days of the week to fly to maximize the chances of a PP upgrade? And is the day time or overnight flight better? 3 travelers, 1K PP points, the 1K member will be traveling.

I would prefer a Saturday day time flight SFO-HKG, and a Sunday night time flight HKG-SFO, but am thinking there might be a lot of paid business travelers taking the Sunday night time HKG-SFO flight.
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Old Feb 22, 2024, 6:41 pm
  #428  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: US
Programs: UA GS 2MM
Posts: 1,740
Originally Posted by boat stuck
Flying SFO-HKG-SFO, departing in late July, returning mid-August.

What are the best days of the week to fly to maximize the chances of a PP upgrade? And is the day time or overnight flight better? 3 travelers, 1K PP points, the 1K member will be traveling.

I would prefer a Saturday day time flight SFO-HKG, and a Sunday night time flight HKG-SFO, but am thinking there might be a lot of paid business travelers taking the Sunday night time HKG-SFO flight.
Saturday westbound is the hardest, as that is the peak business travel day (arrive Sunday night/Monday morning). Eastbound travel is a tiny bit more spread out, but Sunday night is towards the busier side.

With all that said, HKG has pretty decent capacity these days so upgrades feel more possible than most routes.
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cmhua777 is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 6:53 pm
  #429  
 
Join Date: Aug 2022
Posts: 31
Originally Posted by boat stuck
Flying SFO-HKG-SFO, departing in late July, returning mid-August.

What are the best days of the week to fly to maximize the chances of a PP upgrade? And is the day time or overnight flight better? 3 travelers, 1K PP points, the 1K member will be traveling.

I would prefer a Saturday day time flight SFO-HKG, and a Sunday night time flight HKG-SFO, but am thinking there might be a lot of paid business travelers taking the Sunday night time HKG-SFO flight.
I only have anecdotal evidence - but 3/3 on Saturday flights getting upgraded to east Asia/Africa (including a SFO-SIN upgrade from economy). Whereas I had to switch a couple flights midweek to the weekend to get upgraded (I have flexibility). It seems Sun-Thu look the worst whenever I really stalk availability.
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scotts tots is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:43 pm
  #430  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: IAH, YYC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 753
If you are willing to share your exact flights, many people here can lookup whether there is PZ space available (usually there isn’t), and make an assessment of your upgrade chances
david_oz is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 8:50 pm
  #431  
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Houston
Programs: UA Plat, Marriott Gold
Posts: 12,693
Only 20/50 seats available 2 months out seems grim for upgrades.
mduell is offline  
Old Feb 22, 2024, 10:19 pm
  #432  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: San Antonio - the nicest city in northern Mexico
Programs: CO OnePass; AAdvantage Dirt; IHG Priority Club Plat; Hyatt Plat; Marriott Gold; Avis PresPref;
Posts: 886
Not what you asked, but...

Presuming you're looking at the nonstop. it's less than an 8 hour flight. Have you previously flown in the Polaris cabin? Some (including myself) find the seats to be rather coffin-like. On the other hand, the Premium plus seating, while it is not the over-hyped lie flat configuration, does have decent recline and an adjustable foot rest that make for a rather comfortable seat. Last month i was actually able to get in several solid hours of sleep en route to LHR, something that I rarely can do even in Polaris. The amenity kit is pretty much like the Polaris one, the pillow and blanket are upgraded as is the meal service and AV screen. Especially in the middle two seats, it's quite a nice ride. I'd save those miles for a longer trip or even use them to upgrade to Premium Plus on a later flight. You might also check to see how Polaris fares out for your dates- on April 16 Polaris is +$600 over PP but on May 8 it's only $200 > PP.
SeamusSA is offline  
Old Feb 27, 2024, 6:16 am
  #433  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 17
Hello all, I have a question that I can hope someone will be able to answer. Currently I’m 12 hours to online check in. I used miles + Copay to be put on the waitlist. Expert mode shows J5 and I’m #5 on the list, also it shows Polaris 43/48. When will I know if my upgrade clears? I thought the waitlist clears 24 hours before check in unless I misunderstood? No one else has been cleared either This is IAH to SYD. My intent is if my upgrade does not clear, I want to change my flight to a wide open J to SYD at online check in. Thanks in advance for answering my questions, y’all are awesome!
Jeffkitref is offline  
Old Feb 27, 2024, 6:27 am
  #434  
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DFW
Posts: 112
Originally Posted by Jeffkitref
Hello all, I have a question that I can hope someone will be able to answer. Currently I’m 12 hours to online check in. I used miles + Copay to be put on the waitlist. Expert mode shows J5 and I’m #5 on the list, also it shows Polaris 43/48. When will I know if my upgrade clears? I thought the waitlist clears 24 hours before check in unless I misunderstood? No one else has been cleared either This is IAH to SYD. My intent is if my upgrade does not clear, I want to change my flight to a wide open J to SYD at online check in. Thanks in advance for answering my questions, y’all are awesome!

at T+36 to the flight in question's departure (which may not be the same as 12 to OLCI if you are starting with a connecting flight) it usually clears some -- but not all the way to J0. The final spots will typically made available for TOD upgrades; so I wouldn't expect to clear until the gate, if at all from your position unless something changes.
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mariol is offline  
Old Feb 27, 2024, 6:35 am
  #435  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 17
Originally Posted by mariol
at T+36 to the flight in question's departure (which may not be the same as 12 to OLCI if you are starting with a connecting flight) it usually clears some -- but not all the way to J0. The final spots will typically made available for TOD upgrades; so I wouldn't expect to clear until the gate, if at all from your position unless something changes.
thanks for the quick reply, I was expecting an answer like yours, it’s nice to get a confirmation from an expert. You’re right I do have a connecting flight to IAH so I guess I’ll just change my flight at OLCI
Jeffkitref is offline  


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