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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

Old Oct 2, 2023, 4:26 am
  #1  
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Join Date: Oct 2023
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

Hi! My husband and I have an upcoming flight from EWR to CPT (UA 1122) and I was curious what are the chances of us getting upgraded to business at this point?
  • 2 out of 48 business seats remaining
  • Flight is in less than 72 hours (Weds Oct 4 at 8:30 pm ET)
  • Our purchased fare class is United Premium Plus (A)
  • Purchased 2 MileagePlus Upgrade Certificates in Dec 2022 ($450 + 35k miles each, for those curious!)
  • No status for either, but my husband has United Club MileagePlus credit card + my account is linked to United Corporate Preferred
  • UA Agent said we're number 1 and 2 on upgrade list
Curious what anyone thinks the odds of this are! It's our honeymoon so I'm really hoping it works out--but not enough to pay $15k per ticket...I'm not feeling overwhelmingly hopeful but my fingers are crossed....
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 4:29 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: DCA
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Posts: 2,263
I would say the odds of getting the upgrade are low. With only two seats left, someone will pay for the upgrade outright.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 4:37 am
  #3  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.8MM
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Originally Posted by lovlab77
Curious what anyone thinks the odds of this are!
Welcome to Flyertalk, and congrats.

You can check the upgrade list yourself here: https://www.united.com/en/us/flights...-04/EWR/CPT/UA

Unfortunately it doesn't look promising for your upgrades to clear.
However, since you have Premium Plus seats, your flight will still be enjoyable, as those seats are still very nice.
Enjoy South Africa!
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 5:20 am
  #4  
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Only 1 seat left actually ... don't look at the seat map! Unless there are irops (which at EWR are common ) there is not a great chance to make that UG.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 5:49 am
  #5  
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Thank you!!! That link is super helpful I didn't know that existed
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 10:57 am
  #6  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: SFO
Programs: Free agent; tend to fly DL and UA most
Posts: 41
Hey all,

The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing.

A few datapoints:
  • For months now, the same 7 out of 16 seats in F have been open on the seat map (1A-F, 3A, and 4E-F), so doesn't seem that people have been biting at buy-up offers or booking F outright.
  • The same flight UA1111 leaving this coming Saturday Oct 7 still has 4 open seats in F, with F prices about $100 lower than my flight.
  • Flight is PN0 and PZ0.
  • Full inventory is
    J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
    Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
    S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0
  • We're currently seated in Y+ on V fares.
  • Buy-up price from Y to F has gone down in recent weeks to $500, which makes me nervous these seats might fill up.
  • I don't have status, but do have the Chase club card.

Thanks in advance for the thoughts!

Last edited by muaddib89; Oct 2, 2023 at 12:04 pm Reason: Added full inventory
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 11:40 am
  #7  
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What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.

Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 12:03 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: SFO
Programs: Free agent; tend to fly DL and UA most
Posts: 41
Originally Posted by Repooc17
What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.

Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default.

Full inventory is:
J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0

So there's one deep-discount P fare left, and 3 discount Z fares, if I'm interpreting that right.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 3:57 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
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Originally Posted by muaddib89
Hey all,

The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing.

A few datapoints:
  • For months now, the same 7 out of 16 seats in F have been open on the seat map (1A-F, 3A, and 4E-F), so doesn't seem that people have been biting at buy-up offers or booking F outright.
  • The same flight UA1111 leaving this coming Saturday Oct 7 still has 4 open seats in F, with F prices about $100 lower than my flight.
  • Flight is PN0 and PZ0.
  • Full inventory is
    J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
    Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
    S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0
  • We're currently seated in Y+ on V fares.
  • Buy-up price from Y to F has gone down in recent weeks to $500, which makes me nervous these seats might fill up.
  • I don't have status, but do have the Chase club card.

Thanks in advance for the thoughts!
if you play with the date features on your computer to 10/13 you can see the upgrade list when you search for the flight. It looks like 29 on the upgrade list. pull the list yourself and see if you are in the top 7, I would say maybe if you are in the top 3, but Hawaii is rare for upgrades as UA is good at selling those seats in advance or at checkin
​​​​​
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 4:28 pm
  #10  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: SFO
Programs: Free agent; tend to fly DL and UA most
Posts: 41
Huzzah! I didn't know this trick still worked. Just looked and we're #4 and #5, respectively. Fingers crossed! Thanks for the help.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 5:11 pm
  #11  
 
Join Date: Mar 2023
Posts: 28
Originally Posted by jsloan
IAD-HND, in particular, has been a more upgrade-friendly route than most throughout much of the summer. What days of the week are you traveling?
After having some luck with our upgrade from TPE to SFO, I'm now looking at routes from HND to IAD, as my elderly father is contemplating a trip next February.

Looking at the current flights, it's really surprising to see PZ9 (and 16+ Polaris seats still open for the flight) ~8 hours from departure (the one scheduled for Oct 3, with P+ seat availability indicating oversold P+ class), PZ2 for UA 804 scheduled for a week out, and PN9 for the same scheduled flight two weeks out. The flight from two weeks out also has a J vs P+ differential of only ~$1,200 one way, which is really low for flights to/from Japan. Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage?

Also, it's somewhat surprising to see so many on the waitlist yet to be cleared with less than 8 hours from departure. I don't think our flight from TPE ever showed PZ9, but we were cleared at ~T-36.

I'm somewhat tempted to suggest him to fly from IAD to HND on the codeshared ANA flight on P+ (as it offers lounge service) and then fly back on UA P+, putting in an upgrade right away for the hopes of having it clear/ or do the straight buy-up if the cost is indeed $1,200 or less.

Last edited by e_chappy; Oct 2, 2023 at 5:13 pm Reason: clarification
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 5:47 pm
  #12  
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Originally Posted by e_chappy
Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage?
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 6:37 pm
  #13  
 
Join Date: May 2010
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Originally Posted by jsloan
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.
EWR-HND-EWR is also an easy upgrade, and has been since ~April (mid week).

EWR-NRT slightly more difficult.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 9:01 pm
  #14  
 
Join Date: Mar 2023
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Originally Posted by narvik
EWR-HND-EWR is also an easy upgrade, and has been since ~April (mid week).

EWR-NRT slightly more difficult.
This one is interesting for the flights on Oct 3.

Polaris on NRT-EWR is almost full with PN0 and PZ0.

Polaris on HND-EWR is not full, with PN9 and PZ7.

And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo).

Will definitely keep this in mind for future reference.

Many thanks to you and to @jsloan.
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Old Oct 2, 2023, 10:15 pm
  #15  
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Originally Posted by e_chappy
And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo).
But two hours for immigration :-)

And NRT gets lots of connecting traffic.
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