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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Apr 7, 19, 10:26 am   -   Wikipost
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Old Jul 9, 18, 12:28 pm
  #1  
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

Chances of an upgrade on UA 875, 08/04/18? Using a GPU as platinum status.

Also UA2 on 08/12/18? This time using miles + cash as a platinum.

Thanks!
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Old Jul 9, 18, 12:39 pm
  #2  
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Originally Posted by Asaq View Post
Chances of an upgrade on UA 875, 08/04/18? Using a GPU as platinum status.

Also UA2 on 08/12/18? This time using miles + cash as a platinum.

Thanks!
Tough to say for both. Your chances are better for the HND flight I would dare to say. My experience with UA1 and UA2 are that there are many many last minute J purchases and that the seat map will dwindle quickly within the 2 week mark. As a GS for the last couple years, I was upgraded at T<48hr in all cases on UA1 and UA2, and it usually came down to the last couple seats. Sunday is typically a business-heavy travel day for SIN-SFO, so good luck.... I wouldn't hold out too much hope for that one, especially since they are not releasing anything below D class in the available inventory. This means all GS are still waitlisted for upgrades... as well as any 1K. The HND has P inventory opened up... lots of open seats... so hopefully they will begin to leak out some PN and R to clear some people....
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Old Jul 9, 18, 4:06 pm
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Originally Posted by jjmoore View Post
As a GS for the last couple years, I was upgraded at T<48hr in all cases on UA1 and UA2, and it usually came down to the last couple seats.
The chance of clearing UA2 as a Platinum, on a Sunday, prior to the introduction of the second daily SFO flight, is essentially zero. Every single GS and 1K on the flight will have an instrument applied, as will anyone who knows a GS with some to spare and all of those people would be ahead of a Platinum.

If you were flying through LAX, you might have a shot.
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Old Jul 9, 18, 5:05 pm
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post


The chance of clearing UA2 as a Platinum, on a Sunday, prior to the introduction of the second daily SFO flight, is essentially zero. Every single GS and 1K on the flight will have an instrument applied, as will anyone who knows a GS with some to spare and all of those people would be ahead of a Platinum.

If you were flying through LAX, you might have a shot.
Agree, not even sure if LAX would help. If you hold an instrument you will use an instrument on this flight or simply buy up either way extremely tough.
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Old Jul 10, 18, 7:34 am
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Join Date: Apr 2018
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Bought my ticket on UA website 90+ days in advance, RPU applied right after purchase.

UA 2051 TPA-SFO 5.5 hrs flight was 0/20 when I booked and 4/20 @ 60 days prior to the flight, but system NEVER cleared me, this morning was at 16/20.
UA 1589 SFO-HNL 5.5 hrs flight was cleared 60 days before flight.

I was thinking to SDC to TPA-ORD-HNL

Edit: UA 2051 used to be on 320 with 12 first class seats until June, I thought changing it to 739 with 20 seats would increase my chance of clearing RPU on this route, but I was wrong, this route is one the toughest domestic route to clear RPU, forget the CPU here completely!
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Old Jul 11, 18, 3:03 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
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Hey All. I'm debating between the following two flights.

UA 901 SFO-LHR on either 8/7/18 or 8/12/18

I'm flying with one companion with no status on the same reservation.

8/7 looks like it has a fair amount of seats in business left, but not a lot of seats together. (edit 32 seats)
8/12 has more seats in pairs but less single seats in business. (edit 39 seats)

Since we're on the same reservation, would we only get upgraded together into the seat pairs?

I'm planning on purchasing an economy fare (K) and using MUA to upgrade. I have GPUs but since it's not guaranteed, I think it's better to chose MUA and get my copay back if the upgrade doesn't clear vs paying more for a W fare and still being out that money if my GPU doesn't clear. The difference between K and W on this flight is more than the copay.

Background: 1K, plenty of GPUs or miles to use. On the return, I'm going to use GPUs since it's confirmed at booking.

Thoughts? What are the chances the MUAs will clear?

Last edited by extreme_panda; Jul 11, 18 at 3:12 pm Reason: updating seat numbers
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Old Jul 11, 18, 3:08 pm
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Originally Posted by extreme_panda View Post
Since we're on the same reservation, would we only get upgraded together into the seat pairs?
No. UA won't look at the seat map when determining whether or not to process an upgrade.
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Old Jul 12, 18, 1:11 pm
  #8  
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Originally Posted by salisboss View Post
EWR-IAH UA663 W-Fare 12/16 available
zero

Originally Posted by salisboss View Post
IAH-MSY UA1131 W-Fare 16/20 available
slightly higher
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Old Jul 12, 18, 3:11 pm
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Platinum. What are my CPU chances?

Sunday July 15
IAD-SFO UA424 8:18am dpt full Y-fare
Currently F7 A6 JN7 C6 D6 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN5 R0 RN0

Friday July 20
SFO-IAD UA517 4:26pm dpt full Y-fare
Currently F4 A0 JN4 C1 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0
Thinking of throwing an RPU at this one
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Old Jul 12, 18, 3:18 pm
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Originally Posted by shutter41 View Post
Platinum. What are my CPU chances?

Sunday July 15
IAD-SFO UA424 8:18am dpt full Y-fare
Currently F7 A6 JN7 C6 D6 Z5 ZN5 P5 PN5 R0 RN0

Friday July 20
SFO-IAD UA517 4:26pm dpt full Y-fare
Currently F4 A0 JN4 C1 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0
Thinking of throwing an RPU at this one
Decent -- not great -- for Sunday. Zero for Friday. Probably zero even with an RPU.
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Old Jul 13, 18, 10:23 am
  #11  
 
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SFO to EWR on redeye tonight.
4 seats left 2 days ago.
8 seats showed up yesterday, agent wouldn't clear upgrade and we have 2x GS and 1x 1K.
Today (flight day), 8 seats booked, 3 people ahead of us on the list. Called GS, agent said someone came in yesterday and booked 6 revenue tickets. 2 people booked highest award business ticket.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jul 13, 18 at 11:35 am Reason: language
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Old Jul 13, 18, 3:26 pm
  #12  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
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Hi all, just wondering what my upgrade chances are:

Thursday 26 July
LAX - SIN UA37 on W fare with 1K GPU applied
Currently J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 R0 RN0 IN0 I0

16 seats available and PN has gone from 2 to 4 in the last couple of days, for what it's worth.

edited: upgrade cleared at D-2 :-)

Last edited by ADW86; Jul 26, 18 at 10:39 pm Reason: Upgrade cleared
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Old Jul 15, 18, 1:30 pm
  #13  
 
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Hi All,

Flying SFO - HKG as part of a larger leg to CAN on July 29th. My LAX - SFO portion cleared at booking with a W Fare and 30,000K Miles + 550.00 upgrade option. 20 seats on the seatmap left (which I know isn't a good way to look at things, but my EF account just expired. What do you think my chances are?
  • Available fare classes:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M9
  • E9
  • U9
  • H9
  • HN9
  • Q9
  • V9
  • W9
  • S9
  • T9
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN9
  • X0
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Old Jul 15, 18, 1:36 pm
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Originally Posted by Rumples View Post
Flying SFO - HKG as part of a larger leg to CAN on July 29th. My LAX - SFO portion cleared at booking with a W Fare and 30,000K Miles + 550.00 upgrade option. 20 seats on the seatmap left (which I know isn't a good way to look at things, but my EF account just expired. What do you think my chances are?
An EF account won't help you estimate loads. You can see the number of seats booked in J here, or in general via the Future Flight Status tool at https://cablepick.net/united . Spoiler: it's 41/60 today, with two weeks left to go. UA thinks they'll sell them all; that's why the inventory is as tight as it is. J9 C9 D0 means "we don't think we need to offer discount fares to sell these seats."

Your profile lists you as 1K. Is that still accurate? The waitlist is ordered by status, then by fare paid. As a 1K on a W, you might have a shot, but realistically you're probably hoping for some misconnects.

Are you really flying from HKG to CAN?
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Old Jul 15, 18, 1:53 pm
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Originally Posted by Rumples View Post
Hi All,

Flying SFO - HKG as part of a larger leg to CAN on July 29th. My LAX - SFO portion cleared at booking with a W Fare and 30,000K Miles + 550.00 upgrade option. 20 seats on the seatmap left (which I know isn't a good way to look at things, but my EF account just expired. What do you think my chances are?
  • Available fare classes:
  • J9
  • JN9
  • C9
  • D0
  • Z0
  • ZN0
  • P0
  • PN0
  • R0
  • RN0
  • IN0
  • I0
  • Y9
  • YN9
  • B9
  • M9
  • E9
  • U9
  • H9
  • HN9
  • Q9
  • V9
  • W9
  • S9
  • T9
  • L0
  • K0
  • G0
  • N9
  • XN9
  • X0
I think you'll be getting your $550 back. You may get an empty middle or even row as consolation. It might be filled by SBY last minute, though.

Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
An EF account won't help you estimate loads. You can see the number of seats booked in J here, or in general via the Future Flight Status tool at https://cablepick.net/united . Spoiler: it's 41/60 today, with two weeks left to go. UA thinks they'll sell them all; that's why the inventory is as tight as it is. J9 C9 D0 means "we don't think we need to offer discount fares to sell these seats."

Your profile lists you as 1K. Is that still accurate? The waitlist is ordered by status, then by fare paid. As a 1K on a W, you might have a shot, but realistically you're probably hoping for some misconnects.


Are you really flying from HKG to CAN?
UA apparently likes very much to sell that connection, actually. The main alternative is connecting in PEK, which well, you know how that can go.
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