Feb 8, 2018, 1:50 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Archive thread
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Dec 21, 2023, 6:23 pm
#271
Join Date: Dec 2023
Programs: CM Presidential/AV Silver/WOH Globalist/Bonvoy Platinum/IHG Platinum Elite
Posts: 7
Upgrade chance ORD-BCN and BRU-EWR in May 24
Hi! What are the odds of clearing upgrades (PZ>0) in May 2024,
1) ORD-BCN a Saturday
2) BRU-EWR a Saturday
It would be for me and my partner therefore 2 upgrades on each flight.
Context: I have no status with United, only Presidential with Copa Airlines (Star Alliance Gold). Copa hands instant upgrade certificates that work on United as long as there is PZ availability.
1) ORD-BCN a Saturday
2) BRU-EWR a Saturday
It would be for me and my partner therefore 2 upgrades on each flight.
Context: I have no status with United, only Presidential with Copa Airlines (Star Alliance Gold). Copa hands instant upgrade certificates that work on United as long as there is PZ availability.
Dec 21, 2023, 7:53 pm
#272
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 572
Polaris is blocked due to oversold in the back
Dec 21, 2023, 8:29 pm
#273
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
Posts: 6,956
Dec 21, 2023, 8:29 pm
#274
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,391
I am just able to see the WLs of my Sunday flight on United App. It says “Polaris cabin is full.” When I search my flight, the expert mode says “J9 C9 D7 Z5 P4 O1.” Premium Plus cabin has one seat open on seat map. Polaris cabin has 11 seats not selected. Do you trust United App more than “expert mode?” What is really going on on my flight? Any guess?
Dec 21, 2023, 8:48 pm
#275
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: Chicago
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 562
I am just able to see the WLs of my Sunday flight on United App. It says “Polaris cabin is full.” When I search my flight, the expert mode says “J9 C9 D7 Z5 P4 O1.” Premium Plus cabin has one seat open on seat map. Polaris cabin has 11 seats not selected. Do you trust United App more than “expert mode?” What is really going on on my flight? Any guess?
Normally, I trust the App more than united.com. For my flight, these two agree with each other. So, I guess that the WLs now mirror each other between the website and App.
Normally, I trust the App more than united.com. For my flight, these two agree with each other. So, I guess that the WLs now mirror each other between the website and App.
Dec 21, 2023, 9:31 pm
#276
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
Posts: 6,956
this has been happening to a few flights for me and my friends now - previously seeing 56/60 but J8 and currently seeing Full but also at J1. It's showing more seats booked than the actual number. I would think it's showing how many times the cabin has been full without decreasing the booked number after pax has changed/canceled their flight
Add: After a good night of sleep for me, the App now shows 19 booked😀😀
Add2: Upgrades were cleared. PZ2 appeared at T-40 h and I grabbed them in order to get the last two window seats on B763. It would be cleared anyway if I waited.
Last edited by Kmxu; Dec 24, 2023 at 5:07 am
Dec 22, 2023, 8:49 am
#277
Join Date: Jan 2023
Posts: 18
Are RN and PZ availability related?
Am flying back from Europe next week connecting in MUC and have a waitlisted upgrade to Premium Plus, but I see low chances (down to R0 now), so I looked at changing my connection to FRA, which is at R9/RN0. I would have thought my chances are better there, but it's also PN1/PZ1. Is there any connection between when Polaris upgrades open and Premium Plus opens? Does the fact that PZ>0 but RN=0 mean they don't plan to open RN? I'd prefer a MUC connection over FRA all else being equal so am wondering whether to make the change.
Dec 22, 2023, 9:05 am
#278
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,391
No.
RN is a fickle beast, because UA is often willing to oversell the PE cabin -- sometimes even with an R fare -- if there are seats available in J for upgraders to take. In general, the best information you have is the number of R seats. The only real data you can glean from the J cabin is that if you see something like J3 O3, PE is probably oversold and you're probably hoping they get some cancellations, or, at least, that there are more upgraders from PE to J than there are oversold seats in PE.
With PZ1, personally, I'd switch to that flight and upgrade to Polaris instead of PE, but that's just me.
Last edited by jsloan; Dec 22, 2023 at 9:29 am Reason: typo
Dec 22, 2023, 9:06 am
#279
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 38
Am flying back from Europe next week connecting in MUC and have a waitlisted upgrade to Premium Plus, but I see low chances (down to R0 now), so I looked at changing my connection to FRA, which is at R9/RN0. I would have thought my chances are better there, but it's also PN1/PZ1. Is there any connection between when Polaris upgrades open and Premium Plus opens? Does the fact that PZ>0 but RN=0 mean they don't plan to open RN? I'd prefer a MUC connection over FRA all else being equal so am wondering whether to make the change.
Dec 22, 2023, 9:13 am
#280
Join Date: Jan 2023
Posts: 18
Interesting. Guess I was thinking about this backwards ("if even PZ is open then they really must not want to open RN").
Dec 22, 2023, 9:28 am
#281
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,391
If I were out of PlusPoints, I'd use Miles+Copay, unless I were also out of miles.
They're mostly independent. UA tends to be stingy with RN space mostly because they've found that there's more demand for PE than the cabin size allows. It's possible for there to be empty J seats, the PE cabin to be full, and for you to die on the waitlist if there aren't enough people upgrading out of the PE cabin.
They're mostly independent. UA tends to be stingy with RN space mostly because they've found that there's more demand for PE than the cabin size allows. It's possible for there to be empty J seats, the PE cabin to be full, and for you to die on the waitlist if there aren't enough people upgrading out of the PE cabin.
Dec 23, 2023, 4:28 am
#284
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: SNA (home), LAX, BOM/PNQ, LHR
Programs: UA 1K/*G, Marriott Gold Elite, IHG Platinum, HHonors Silver
Posts: 965
TPE-SFO 1/1 12:45pm flight
7 seats left for sale and currently #5 and #6 as 1Ks on A fare. How we feeling? I'm feeling battlefield to no upgrade but hoping for better.
Flight is currently J7 C7 D7 Z6 ZN6 P4 PN0 PZ0
7 seats left for sale and currently #5 and #6 as 1Ks on A fare. How we feeling? I'm feeling battlefield to no upgrade but hoping for better.
Flight is currently J7 C7 D7 Z6 ZN6 P4 PN0 PZ0
Dec 23, 2023, 4:59 am
#285
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 38
I agree with your assessment. They normally hold those last few until the very end.