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UAL 2Q 2014 Results/Discussion/News → Results Announced July 24th, 2014 ←

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Old Jun 4, 2014, 7:33 am
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UAL

earnings released: Thursday, July 24,2014 9:30 am CST/10:30 EST

If you missed the live webcast of the 2nd Q earnings conference call, it is now available for replay for a limited time and will later be archived.
A transcript is now available also.
Click this link for access to replay and transcript of call:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/23227909-post151.html

Current 2Q 2014 UAL guidance (4/24/14 investor update):

PRASM +1-3%
ASM "quarter, flat to +1%, full year +.5 to 1.5%"
CASM ex fuel, "quarter +1.25 to 2.25%, full year +1-2%"
Analyst guidance/actual 2Q 2013 results:

6/5/14 estimates:
1.86/share (using the 367M shares from last release $682M profit ex special items) [2q 2013 actual was $521M; $1.35/share ex specials; $469M GAAP]
Revenue 10.33B (3.3% growth) [2q 2013 was $10B]

Actual results:
- $789m GAAP Net income, $2.34/share. 7.6% margin
- $919m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.9% margin
- $906m Operating Income (8.8% margin)
- $1.08B Operating Income excluding specials (10.4% margin)

- PRASM up 3.7%, yield up 3.0%; domestic yield +6.8%
- ASM -0.1%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items down 0.2%
- Operating Revenue: $10.33B (up 3.3%); Passenger Revenue $8.98B( up3.6%)
- $1.5B in operating cash flow


Links to UA Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:

DAL
earnings released: Wednesday July 23 at 10 edt. Call link: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistra...epage=register

Actual results:

- $801m GAAP Net income, $0.94/diluted share. 7.5% margin
- $889m Net Income (excluding specials) or $1.04 per share. 8.4% margin
Delta's pre-tax income, ex special items was $1.4 billion.
- $1.58B Operating Income (14.9% margin)
- $1.61B Operating Income excluding specials (15.1% margin)

- PRASM up 5.7%, yield up 3.8%; domestic yield +7.4%
- ASM +3.2%
- CASM-Ex fuel, profit sharing and special items was FLAT
- Operating Revenue: $10.62B (up 9%); Passenger Revenue $9.27B ( up9%)
- Over $2.0B in operating cash flow and $1.5B in free cash, net debt $7.9B

3Q projections
: Operating margin +15 to +17%, CASM +0 to 2%, "unit revenues" (I take to be PRASM - spin) +2-4% "driven by continued corporate and domestic strength, along with benefits from our revenue initiatives."

Links to DL Press Releases / News Articles / etc.:
http://news.delta.com/2014-07-23-Del...Quarter-Profit

AAL - earnings call: July 24, 2014 at 12:30 cdt
link to call: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....estorrelations

Estimates/AAL guidance:

2Q PRASM +5-7% (updated estimate from 6/9/14 traffic release). YTD ASM +2.5%.

Actual results:

- $864m GAAP Net income
- $1.5B Net Income (excluding specials)
- $11.4B Revenue (+10.2%)

- Yeld +6.5% (17.34)
- PRASM up 5.9%, (14.57)
- ASM +3.1%
- CASM +3.9% (13.61)
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UAL 2Q 2014 Results/Discussion/News → Results Announced July 24th, 2014 ←

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Old Jul 24, 2014, 9:30 am
  #241  
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Originally Posted by LaserSailor
The performances are very much on par IMHO. Certainly good news for Jeff. Predictions of his demise were premature.
That's too bad. While I'm happy UA made money instead of losing money, Smisek is still a huge problem. He and his minions aren't real leaders, and they aren't doing anything to address UA's significant operational issues and labor problems.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 9:32 am
  #242  
 
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IIRC, there was a brief mention of 737-900ER as an example of the used market. These planes are fairly new, but there are a bunch of them flying around. Dunno if UA intended to foreshadow some deal in the current quarter.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:08 am
  #243  
 
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Originally Posted by sinoflyer
IIRC, there was a brief mention of 737-900ER as an example of the used market. These planes are fairly new, but there are a bunch of them flying around. Dunno if UA intended to foreshadow some deal in the current quarter.
I don't think there are any used 737-900ERs available unless a current operator is selling.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:17 am
  #244  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
Rainey acknowledges that UAL 50 seaters flying 'wingtip to wingtip' with competitor large RJ and mainline equipment puts UAL directly at a disadvantage and casues customers to book away. EWR-ATL immediately comes to mind, and the new schedule this fall is a testament to that.

It was refreshing to hear that. Definitely a bit of a different feel on this call as compared to others.
Any reconsideration of the high load assigned to UAX is welcome news.

Originally Posted by SmokeyTheBear
Next question was regarding shutting down Dulles as a hub. Avoided the question as to whether they would dehub IAD. "Researching - that includes the overall look at the network."
That doesn't sound like a ringing defense of IAD. Which in turn means the shrink-to-greatness strategy is still kicking.

It's a good Q2, although with some signs that they're burning the furniture, short-term, to mollify the Street. The humility re: failed RJ strategy is a pro-customer sign. Still don't see a long-term plan, though.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:23 am
  #245  
 
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I was listening via iPhone in car and it went out a couple of times and needed to be reloaded. I'll check the transcript online tonight when I it's on seekingalpha, but unless I missed it, Jamie Baker didn't ask anything. Was there his usual loaded question that always makes me smile that I missed, or did he not participate in the Q&A this time?
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:29 am
  #246  
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Originally Posted by fly18725
I don't think there are any used 737-900ERs available unless a current operator is selling.
doesn't HAVE to be 737s

PMUA is a very large operator of A319+A320, so they might be trying to pick up some Airbuses too

But I still think there's a huge capacity gap between E75 and 73G. Something in the 105-110 seat range would plug it nicely.

Originally Posted by BearX220
That doesn't sound like a ringing defense of IAD. Which in turn means the shrink-to-greatness strategy is still kicking.
They have a fiduciary responsibility to look into all these large suggestions. To flatly deny it without the necessary rationale would just set the C-suite folks up for trouble.

Last edited by FlyinHawaiian; Jul 24, 2014 at 10:50 am Reason: Merge
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:33 am
  #247  
 
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Originally Posted by spin88
and while I've not listened to the call, re Seattle they said "A solid demand environment, coupled with higher revenues from our corporate contract gains, merchandising efforts, and investments in New York and Seattle, helped offset weakness in Pacific yields"
For contrast to what DL reports on SEA, AS call today as well:

A conference call regarding the second quarter results will be simulcast via the Internet at 8:30 a.m. Pacific time on July 24, 2014. It can be accessed through the company's website at www.alaskaair.com/investors. For those unable to listen to the live broadcast, a replay will be available after the conclusion of the call.

Will be interesting to watch the 'Battle for Seattle' as it plays out.

http://splash.alaskasworld.com/Newsr...724_045148.asp

"Alaska Air Group Reports Record Second Quarter 2014 Results

7/24/2014 5:00 a.m.

Financial Highlights:

Reported record second quarter net income, excluding special items, of $157 million - a 50% increase over the second quarter of 2013.

Reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.13 per diluted share, a 53% increase over the second quarter of 2013 and ahead of First Call analyst consensus estimate of $1.11 per share.

Earned net income for the second quarter under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) of $165 million or $1.19 per diluted share, compared to net income of $104 million, or $0.74 per diluted share in 2013."

etc.

“We’re pleased to report our 21st consecutive quarterly profit and a record second quarter result," said CEO Brad Tilden. "Through strong demand, a growing network, and steady support from our loyal customers, we were able to overcome the impact of substantial new competition.”
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:35 am
  #248  
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Originally Posted by 787fan
I still think there's a huge capacity gap between E75 and 73G. Something in the 105-110 seat range would plug it nicely.
DL knows the strong utility / profit potential in that seat range; that's why they've snarfed up all the 717s.

Originally Posted by 787fan
They have a fiduciary responsibility to look into all these large suggestions. To flatly deny it without the necessary rationale would just set the C-suite folks up for trouble.
Come on. If someone suggested they pull out of SFO or EWR, they'd flatly deny that. They don't have a fiduciary responsibility to entertain every notion under the sun.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:44 am
  #249  
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Originally Posted by 787fan
UA outperforming DL must be signs of armageddon
No, it's all those P fares I've been buying.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:45 am
  #250  
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Originally Posted by BearX220
DL knows the strong utility / profit potential in that seat range; that's why they've snarfed up all the 717s.
Delta also foresaw the strength in the domestic market returning while UA was stumbling over themselves with merger, cost-cutting, and technology issues.

The 717s became available, and DL jumped on them. It could be the capacity, but it also could be what was easily available in a large quantity, and they could make it work.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:46 am
  #251  
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A decent quarterly profit, to be sure, but UA's revenue growth continues at a slower pace than its peers - not a good sign.

For the first six months of 2014, UA's profit totaled $430 million, excluding special items (or a mere $180 million, including special items).

http://newsroom.unitedcontinentalhol...er-2014-Profit

http://newsroom.unitedcontinentalhol...r-2014-Results
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:51 am
  #252  
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But I still think there's a huge capacity gap between E75 and 73G. Something in the 105-110 seat range would plug it nicely.
They could likely put in orders for E190/195, the 190 holds 94, and the 195 106 in 2 class standard config. They would probably have to operate those as mainline.

I don't really know what sort of used aircraft would become available in the seating range they seem to need more. The 318/736 come to mind but they are very high CASM aircraft.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:54 am
  #253  
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Originally Posted by entropy
They could likely put in orders for E190/195, the 190 holds 94, and the 195 106 in 2 class standard config. They would probably have to operate those as mainline.

I don't really know what sort of used aircraft would become available in the seating range they seem to need more. The 318/736 come to mind but they are very high CASM aircraft.

I don't think they're trying to address a ~100-seater capacity gap as much as they are trying to get more planes, period.

They alluded to used 738s and Airbuses, and mentioned that a used Airbus is cheaper than a used 738. That's probably more along the lines of what they're thinking.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 10:58 am
  #254  
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Originally Posted by entropy
I don't really know what sort of used aircraft would become available in the seating range they seem to need more.
I know where they can get lots of used MD-80s, with Wifi already installed.
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Old Jul 24, 2014, 11:02 am
  #255  
 
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Originally Posted by channa
I don't think they're trying to address a ~100-seater capacity gap as much as they are trying to get more planes, period.

They alluded to used 738s and Airbuses, and mentioned that a used Airbus is cheaper than a used 738. That's probably more along the lines of what they're thinking.
Yeah, definitely. I think they are alluding to looking to more Airbuses to fill the gaps as they said that they are generally cheaper on the used market than a 737.

Originally Posted by BearX220

Come on. If someone suggested they pull out of SFO or EWR, they'd flatly deny that. They don't have a fiduciary responsibility to entertain every notion under the sun.
Yeah, it was very much, we're leaving IAD completely on the table. They skirted around it a bit, but there was nothing close to a defense of IAD (no "right now, we have many high value flyers there that we serve and are looking to continue to serve for the time being" etc- etc-).

I think the writing is slowly on the wall. Even when booking TATL now, it's either rarer or generally more expensive (potentially due to lower supply), in my experience, to go through IAD than through EWR.
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