not really an experiment when the primary covid vaccines had clinical trials and datasets that are larger than pretty much any other vaccines in history.

so all of those vaccines we got as children and adolescents were more "experimental" when they were first introduced than these are today.

Mostly they are vaccinated according to a programme of vaccinations. Due to the arrival of HPV vaccines and new assessments on meningitis vaccines, those under about 25 have had more and more recent vaccines than those over 30. So that's about 13 vaccines compared to perhaps 8. For the last 20 years we have been vaccinating Year 9 and Year 10 with the MenACWY vaccine (fifth formers for any wrinklies reading this), and the longstanding MMR vaccines for those younger and toddlers.

Some people miss these vaccines, due to living overseas for some or all of their childhood, some due to moving schools within the UK. A very small number of parents prevent their children from having some or all of these vaccines. These three factors are enough to see cases of measles rise, when it was virtually eliminated in the UK from the 1970s to about 2015. There are still only a few cases, about 500 a year before the pandemic, ironically there have been fewer since the pandemic thanks to lockdowns and better public health measures. But that 500 came about from vaccination rates falling from 95% to 85%. It isn't compulsory to get these or any vaccines.

Daily data:

Cases 27,429 (24,470 last Sunday)
Deaths 39 (65)
People vaccinated up to and including 07 August 2021:
First dose: 47,036,796
Second dose: 39,429,468

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 1.9% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 14.5%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 85.9 today.

The data today isn't too encouraging, cases are now rising, albeit by a very small amount.

Cases per 100k population
7 days = 286.0, a week ago 280.8
14 days = 566.7, a week ago 681.7
7 days over 14 days = 50.46%, which is the first net increase on this metric since 23 July.

As hinted earlier, what has happened is that the infection rate in some big cities has now fallen - and this continues albeit more slowly that a few weeks ago. But the infection has spread to outlying areas. Northern Ireland is the clearest example of this. Belfast had a peak on 17 July of about 414 cases on a 7 day rolling average, and it has continued to fall, it's around the 300 level but has levelled off in the last few days. But what has happened is that cases are rising sharply in Londonderry/Derry. County Antrim, Omagh, Cookstown and so on, so the viirus has moved from the main city to much smaller towns and plenty of them. The worst location in terms of population adjusted rate is actually Lincoln, for which a nightclub event led initially to around 100 people infected, and then spread from there. Having said that because Lincoln isn't a big place, their 100 cases a day is not lighting up the national figures. Moreover Bournemouth and Sheffield may be getting past their peak and these are rather larger locations, population wise.

Still a lot of sick people in hospitals, mostly the unvaccinated, but most ICUs are reporting reduced numbers. Mortality continues to creep from around 70 day to now over 90 a day and the unvaccinated are over-represented in the death rates.

So my sister flew back to the UK from a green list country on the 30th July, and today got notification (SMS/email) from NHS Track and Trace saying she's been a close contact of someone who tested positive and needs to self-isolate until... the 9th August. Which is today. It took them the full 10 days to notify her. She's been double jabbed so is no longer required to self-isolate (living in Wales), her PCR test was negative after returning home, and she got another PCR test at work yesterday which was negative.

Although just to clarify she is required still to self isolate if contacted by NHS T&T as a close contact, but as you note it is a bit pointless as it would be until the end of the day.

The exemption for self isolation if contacted by NHS T&T as a close contact doesn't kick in until 16 August.

That's in England, she's living in Wales and the exemption started on the 7th August.

Aha, yes good point! I hadn't realised the date was different in Wales,

Mark Drakeford typically copies policy from England, with a 2-3 week delay, but this time he had to jump in and be first :D

On a serious note, I'm assuming there are no delays with NHS T&T contacting people, so the fact she was only contacted today (10 days after the "contact" on the flight) means that the person tested positive only in the last 24 hours.

The other passenger would have needed to show a negative test before the flight, and completed a PCR test on Day 2, testing negative (otherwise NHS T&T would have kicked in earlier, not waited a week to contact other passengers).

So if someone later tests positive 9 days after arriving home, but had 2 negative tests before and after the flight, what's the logic in asking other passengers to self-isolate?

Perhaps this was a positive result on day 8? That does happen, and if that person was in a Delta hotspot in the UK that would be the likely cause. It could also have been a day2 case but it can take a long time to get the information. So they take the test on day2, get teh result on say day4 or even 5, NHST&T asks for the manifest or queries the PLF, and before you know it, it's day 10.

That makes sense - I remember now that some of the Day 2 tests are quite slow. A friend did the official NHS Day 2 test in Scotland last month and got the result 5 days later, so that would be Day 7 already.

Daily data:

Cases 25,161 (21,952 last Monday)
Deaths 37 (24)
Patients in hospital 5,608 (5,950 on the 30th)
Patients in ventilation beds 870 (889 on the 30th)
People vaccinated up to and including 08 August 2021:
First dose: 47,059,639
Second dose: 39,551,538

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 5.2% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 14.8%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 87.7 today. It does at least look like the hospitalisation figures have peaked for the time being. In January the number of people in hospital was above 38,000. As it stands for this wave, it was about 6,000.

Does that mean that anyone in England who suspects they are about to be contacted by Test and Trace can hot foot it over to Wales for a few days break?

Daily data:

Cases 23,510 (21,691 last Tuesday)
Deaths 146 (138)
Patients admitted 755 (731 on the 30th)
Patients in hospital 5,909 (6,099 on the 2nd)
Patients in ventilation beds 859 (895 on the 2nd)
People vaccinated up to and including 09 August 2021:
First dose: 47,091,889
Second dose: 39,688,566

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 7.3% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 14.8%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 88.9 today. 75.0% of the adult population have now received the second jab.