Yes. Sadly, Robert Peston has become an irritating twat constantly looking for relevance. Clickbait. And I didn't take it.

Indeed another big drop, pulling down the rolling 7 day average, the 7 days per 100k and the 14 days per 100k. 7 days per 100k is 401, 14 days is 875, which means 7 over 14 is 0.4583 (45.83%). So it is a real drop, given that 4 days ago the 7 day rate per 100k was 500.

I think though that this should be discounted by the number of tests carried out. The gov.uk isn't showing the last 2-3 days but the latest 7 day average was 5% lower than the one before, and the positivity rate was still climbing. So though the wave is ebbing, it's not retreating as fast as it would otherwise seem (unfortunately).

Agreed. Positivity rate still going up, test number decreasing, I am still in mode Wait & See before saying cases are actually decreasing. If the positivity rate is still increasing in the next 3-4 days while test numbers are decreasing then the transmission is increasing.

Presumably a considerable percentage of the tests being carried out would have been in schools? Of the data we are actually given, perhaps the death data is more important right now and for the next 2-3 weeks until we get a clearer picture of what is going on sans education. If that's not showing signs of peaking and then coming down, over the holidays, I think we will have a problem.

Yes, if the death rate falls in 2 or 3 weeks then the peak / no peak question will be answered. But for schools and colleges, that is in there but probably in complex ways. Delta in the UK is a younger person's disease and schools / colleges could easily be incubators for the infection. Two main things drive people to a taking a PCR - firstly direct symptoms of COVID, and a lower positivity can come about due to the hayfever season and other respiratory illneses (which we are seeing at the moment). The other driver is having a positive LFT result, and the schools / colleages were big contributors to this. And there is a loop in that, since, for example fewer LFT also represent fewer infections, perhaps, if schools are closed.

One clue: Scotland has been on school holidays for a few more weeks than England, their Delta rates have been falling since 1 July and their hospitalisation rates have been coming down since about 18 July. ICU admissions are still rising but maybe levelling. The death rate is too difficult to tell since they average only about 4 a day anyway.

There is a good reason for discounting the small number of repeat cases. There are two common features to this, one is that some people do take multiple PCRs for one reason or another, for the same infection. This shouldn't really happen, but it does. The other aspect relates to LFTs (again). If someone gives a positive LFT result but then does not do a PCR at all (which they are supposed to do), then they are deemed to be positive in the national stats. But if they then do - for a separate event - a real PCR and test positive, then we tend to think that it is statistically more likely that the first LFT wasn't correct. Either way it is more likely they had one infection rather than two. As mentioned the small number of cases is tracked separately, I guess this will rise over time, but given that Delta is a lot more infectious than baseline or Alpha COVID, it's quite reassuring it is a low number so far.

Happy Monday! Two questions to start off the week if I may:

1. Is it happening to anyone else that the NHS LFT boxes contain 7x of everything but the little sachet with the liquid in which you swirl the swab? My OH is having to test every other day, basically, because of the rules for crews and the last three boxes had that surprise. They all are of different batch numbers.
2. Are cabin crew key transport workers that can be exempt from self isolation if they get pinged? I can't seem to find a lot of info about it.

There should be one buffer sachet per LFD along with one swab. Something is going wrong there. You can get large Innova boxes with 30 doses in them. These are supplied with 2 mini bottles of buffer in them, and in general you should get through 30 tests using just one of these mini bottles. So if you know someone who works for the NHS or other professions getting the box of 30 then they should be able to give you a spare bottle.

The exemption from self isolation will apply to all those double vaccinated from 16 August, but in the mean time the critcal services exemption is employer led, so they should tell cabin crew if they are in scope for this. In the case of BA I can't see this applying except in a few cases, for example for flight crew dedicated to specific services. For example it used to be the case that only a few pilots could fly to FNC, but I think that's been broadened out. I can see it applying to Loganair crew - leaving aside the fact that Scotland has a wider exemption anyway - since they don't have many staff on furlough and if a lot of their staff were told to isolate then services to the Highlands and Islands could be put in peril very quickly. The relevant document is here, but in your context it would be someone senior in BA who would be contacting the DfT to work out who is in scope.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test...-for-employers

As a guide, I don't believe I am in scope for this exemption, though I am in scope for the older pilot scheme where some people can take daily tests, as used by the PM for 163 minutes last weekend.

My last testing kit was missing a sachet too.

Thanks for this. We don't really know anyone who has access to those bottles, so we'll either buy one or keep on getting LFTs. Eventually we'll end up finding boxes with 8 sachets!

The self isolation policy feels unnecessarily overcooked. I'm sure BA and the DfT's combined powers will create something completely disconnected from logic or common sense... Who do I get to bribe in the NHS for an advance warning in case the Mrs and/or anyone in her social circle gets pinged? So that I can schedule an impromptu field visit to a company's site in Gorno-Badakhshan..

Daily data:

Cases 24,950 (39,950 last Monday)
Deaths 14 (19)
Patients admitted 922 (740 on the 13th)
Patients in hospital 5,238 (4,102 on the 16th)
Patients in ventilation beds 715 (573 on the 16th)
People vaccinated up to and including 25 July 2021:
First dose: 46,589,211
Second dose:37,287,384

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 21.5% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 50.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 63.6 today. Another good day for cases gives us five consecutive days of significant falls.

Thanks for the helpful response. I think most U.S. tourists are waiting for the day when you can land in the UK without quarantining and/or testing. It looks like we are not close to that yet.

Yes, unfortunately so. The US government stance on us entering the US really does not help.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/new...iant-concerns/

Can't say I'm surprised