Ordhater

In 2015 I was flying DTW-IAH on Labor Day evening. Oversold by four. Took the voucher, rebooked to the following morning, which ended up oversold by eight. Took the voucher again, rebooked to that evening, overbooked again (but I figured enough was enough at that point). So both Monday and Tuesday were good days for VDB. But in 2016, I was booked on the same flight on Labor Day evening and it left with empty seats. So you never know.

Zorak

Originally scheduled for LAS-SJC tonight, but wanted to get back sooner so last night I SDCed to LAS-SLC-SFO which was all I could get on an X fare.

At the gate this morning LAS-SLC was over by 2-3, with a $300 offer so I asked about switching me to the morning SJC nonstop instead So I and the other volunteers stayed in the gate area until the very last minute while they made the "last call" announcements etc. A short while later, two pax briskly walked/jogged up, relieved to have made the flight (and carrying two large Starbucks drinks), followed a minute or so later by an unaccompanied minor (and his mom dropping him off) -- the GA/redcoat had been chatting about him because his destination was a one-a-day connecting flight so he would've been kinda screwed if he hadn't made it -- followed a minute or so later by two *more* pax.

Despite all this there were still some no-shows, so no VDBs. Oh well

estedman

ATL- NRT they were looking for 4 at $4000 each. Why don't these come up when I have an extra day?

Ordhater

SLC-ATL oversold by five. I was the last volunteer they took. When I asked how much they were offering, the response was "whatever you bid." That makes me wonder if different volunteers received different voucher amounts based on what they bid. Luckily I had bid the max allowed at the kiosk ($800), but as always I was hoping they would end up higher.

Lots of oversold flights at SLC today. They had nothing into Atlanta, even with crazy connections, until the red eye tonight.

synergistic

You know I've never caught a VDB with delta? Several with WN and a couple with AA, but never even had the option with DL. I'm one of those passengers who will essentially always take the bump if it even approaches the cost of my intended trip - I really only get three nights with my SO but I'll take two nights now and am extra trip for free in a heartbeat. His schedule switches soon, and I'll be flying out of Florida on Sundays for a bit - here's hoping I catch a few delays on the months to come.

Zorak

Curious about how to read the tea leaves:

DL5823 SJC-LAS (E175) on Friday seems to be F3W0Y0 based on what DL is willing to sell. Earlier was F4, and briefly Y1. On the Android app you can pull up the upgrade/standby lists even outside of T-24, and they say there are 4 F seats and 17 C+ "remaining", and the standby list says 25 seats available. Twitter confirms the flight is "oversold[sic] in coach" (I asked if it was overbooked )

Amongst various things I'm wondering:
- whether F4 includes op-ups, i.e. is it over by no more than 4 right now? probably no real way to distinguish though
- if the F4 -> F3 and brief Y1 meant the next person on the list getting an RU upgrade in order to sell one more coach seat (and hasn't selected a seat yet)
- what 17 C+ and 25 standby means. Surprisingly to me they don't seem to sell Basic Economy on this route.

pgh234

You can read the tea leaves and prognosticate all you want...but there are literally thousands of variables at play here. That flight can go from 4 over, to 3 under, to 1 over in 5 minutes...let alone over 24 hours before.(At this very moment, for example, your flight is back to F3/Y1) I have been on flights oversold by 18 where they took standbys and I have been on flights that were F9/Y9 that needed 13 volunteers. I have gotten vouchers in my hand that were taken away by the gate agent, ripped up, and I was told to get on. I have been 6 for zero seats for an upgrade...and then gotten a battlefield upgrade on the aircraft. A significant amount of people on any given flight will sleep in, get stuck in traffic, miss connections, etc all the time...it is why they over sell. Your flight is seemingly not even oversold with those 3 F seats.

Just pay loose attention to it. If at shortly before departure, it still looks oversold, just causally ask the gate agent or stick around the gate area for an announcement. Don't bother Delta or yourself with what amounts to be very trivial and insignificant thought at this point in time.

Zorak

Yes, I'm aware of all that. You'll note that one thing i actually didn't ask was, "what are my chances of a VDB on this particular flight at this point in time."
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I'm interested in the interpretation of the numbers in the general case. And even if a situation is volatile and the numbers could swing wildly, there can still be value in thinking about it.

Or there might not. I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it

btonkid12345

HOLY. Was this for a J seat or for a Y seat on the plane?

estedman

That was for any seat on the plane.

Explorer789

$4k may seem like a lot but I think that is a fair offer considering the cost to changed plans (e.g. hotels, other nonrefundable tickets) and losing a day of vacation in Japan.

tentseller

There are also still a bit of onward connection from NRT as well.

ATL NRT does not offer too many alternative to NRT in a timely manner via other DL Asian gateways.

Next day's flight might be quite full as well

PV_Premier

this past Sunday at ATL, ATL-SMF was over by 3 or 4...i volunteered, but because they were not willing to process the VDB before boarding began, i boarded and essentially un-volunteered in the process i guess. the comp was to be $500, but i'd intended on asking for more if my seat was needed because it was a 4 hour wait to the next flight. i don't know if they actually took anyone.

across the hall, ATL-MCO was over by 5 and they were offering $700 plus a flight 1 1/2 or 3 hours later. very generous. i would have taken that in a heartbeat.

Jay00848

SLC to ORD was over by 4 today on the morning flight. $750 each.

sethb

That means it's as overbooked as Delta is willing to let it get. That might be even, or it might be 25 seats.

Or, possibly, it's even more overbooked than Delta is willing to let it get.