HongKonger

This sounds great... more details?

Deadtail

Just what I mentioned in the first few pages about a conversation on a plane. Because of this conversation I am certain that things are unsettled and program changes aren't happening in 2012. A complete revamping of the loyalty program would be done with plenty of notice.

Seabilly

Don't know that I agree with everything in your post, but see where you are coming from until you add the above with your personal theory. Just wondering how Delta identifying and targeting stupid people squares with your 2MM status with them?

vasantn

Now this would be a miracle. I'm not holding my breath.

starflyer

Why do people keep claiming these are just rumors and nothing is substantiated when job postings referencing/describing the projects were seen on reputable job board sites?

Deadtail

1. They weren't that specific
2. Every airline has people who are constantly analyzing and crunching their loyalty programs. It's also a field with a lot of turnover.

ConciergeBrandon

I have a few non-FT friends who are Silvers and Golds, who accumulate most miles by using AMEX, think it is normal to redeem 80K for domestic (JFK-ATL, e.g.), or 280K-350K for international (BOS-LHR, e.g.). To them this is what Delta is asking for; that is the going rate; either they use the miles or buy the tickets. They just couldn't be bothered to search, wait and do whatever we are doing to find a better 'deal'.

Guess these are the customers that Delta are looking for and maintaining. There are plenty out there.

5khours

They should. I honestly think what they did to make the international UG instruments unusable was a huge mistake. IMHO no VFIF with a half a brain flies DL anymore unless they are a hub/route captive. DL lost $150k of revenue from me alone, and I know a half dozen (non-FTers) like me who have also abandoned DL because of this folly.

AUDirt

There are lots of regular (non-FF) travelers that fall for the Delta AMEX pitch everyday. I had to talk my in-laws, who are retired and fly 3-5 times a year, out of getting a Gold Delta AMEX the other day.

Their thinking was the following:
* Free bag
* Enough sign-up bonus to earn a free ticket.

A lot of people must decide this is a good deal and go for it.

Now then... most of the traveling public has been conditioned to think of a mile/point as being worth $0.01 each. Explicitly pegging the value of a SkyMile at $0.01 would simply bring the Delta AMEXes in line with other travel cards. The free bag(s) become the distinguishing characteristic of the card, and if my in-laws are any indication, that's enough.

I don't necessarily believe what I'm about to say, but I won't dismiss it either. If passenger margins are as thin as reported, Delta may decide that their best bet to make money is to break-even in the passenger transportation business and maximize profits on credit cards. Under that scenario, retaining FFs is less of a priority than it was in the past. That seems unlikely, but the pieces do (kinda) fit together that way.

(Sorry if these thoughts have been expressed earlier in the thread. I try to keep up with the thread, but it got silly for a little while.)

n301dp

That is not quite as far fetched as it sounds, judging by the light post banners and tabletop trifolds pitching the SkyPesos AMEX to employees on Virginia Ave.

EZE

The problem is that most people will not participate if the exchange rate is 1 mile = 1 cent - most would be better of with a cash back card.

javabytes

This. Unless you can actually extract value from your miles, cash back cards are looking like more and more attractive options.

Wi DL, this is increasingly questionable. Had the pleasure of booking a UA award ticket today. One way, for travel in 2-3 months. June and July calendar had all days except one with both saver Y and F awards. Not that I'd book a OW ticket on DL, but I did check availability for funsies. About half the days showing low Y, many of which disappeared when clicking into results, or only showing one or two flight options all day. Less than a third of the days showing low F. Booked my ticket for 10k miles vs. a $300 cash fare.

davetravels

I've only glanced at this thread briefly every now 'n then, so I'm not completely up on the latest of the speculation . . . . It seems like a quick 1600 post overview is simply that many to most FTers here think that SM will change a WN/SW style program. Dollars based points earned / Points to redeem based on the value of the ticket. Anything else important to add in summary to keep the late comers up to speed?

A friend of mine who used to be a GA, then RedCoat told me that she was amazed how many boarding passes she used to scan without ANY frequent flyer numbers on them - - something like 80-90%!!

Between the initiation of E fares, and all of these rumored changes, maybe this is the beginning of the end of the whole FF program concept!

Before all of the mergers, when there were 7+ midsize to major carriers, none would likely have wanted to be the first to eliminate the mileage programs, but with only 4 carriers left standing . . . . . who knows?

yohanson

This would go against the trend in the US. More companies are using loyalty programs today than ever before.

From a year ago: http://www.smartmoney.com/spend/fami...1300230426274/

sbjnyc

Delta last year redeemed 275 billion skymiles at approximately 1cpm. They are already doing this. I'm not saying its a good deal, or that Delta/AMEX can maintain it, but the sign up bonuses are still a good deal even if redeemed at 1cpm.