Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 20, 2020, 2:19 pm
#1096
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 10,970
Tiananmen Square = 6/4/1989. Hong Kong returning to Chinese Rule = 7/1/1997.
Mar 20, 2020, 2:26 pm
#1097
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
Programs: Marriott Ambassador Elite, UA 1K, AS MVP GLD 75K, DL Pt
Posts: 1,086
Mar 20, 2020, 2:41 pm
#1098
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
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Posts: 1,086
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
Mar 20, 2020, 2:49 pm
#1099
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
Finally some people are trying to get the statistics right and use the data on asymptomatic cases and extrapolate it.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate
Precious little data on cohorts where everyone is tested and multiple times.
So around 3-4x worse than seasonal flu in the end. And if you catch it, even a small dose, then you will be immune, and possibly never know it.
Luckily the Netherlands is trying to find out how many of those there are: https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/19/blood-...erlands-report
A 2-week pause in transmission rate makes sense. Even a virus that is not nearly as deadly as we think (and I am almost certain of that) is still bad news if we all get it at the same time.
Next phase after 2-3 week pause is to resume normal activity with social distancing and handwashing while keeping high risk individuals home until proven treatments are available. This more distant mingling of people compared to "normal" behavior will be more efficient at creating some herd immunity and still result in fewer cases needing hospitalization that the preceeding two weeks.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate
Precious little data on cohorts where everyone is tested and multiple times.
So around 3-4x worse than seasonal flu in the end. And if you catch it, even a small dose, then you will be immune, and possibly never know it.
Luckily the Netherlands is trying to find out how many of those there are: https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/19/blood-...erlands-report
A 2-week pause in transmission rate makes sense. Even a virus that is not nearly as deadly as we think (and I am almost certain of that) is still bad news if we all get it at the same time.
Next phase after 2-3 week pause is to resume normal activity with social distancing and handwashing while keeping high risk individuals home until proven treatments are available. This more distant mingling of people compared to "normal" behavior will be more efficient at creating some herd immunity and still result in fewer cases needing hospitalization that the preceeding two weeks.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:01 pm
#1100
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
A good read, but this battle will be like the flu, for a longtime as COVID19 is already mutating.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
This article really hits it's stride at the very end. Chart 15 and onward. I hope most people have the stamina to get that far because he is dead on right.
Shut it down 3 weeks, but slightly longer in high risk areas, and then open back up.
What nobody can estimate is how much the behavior of society will change after things "open up" again. The pundits have underestimated that in my opinion so the downslope will be better than estimated.
Also advising high risk people to follow "the hammer" for longer will also help the downslope.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:04 pm
#1101
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
Programs: Marriott Ambassador Elite, UA 1K, AS MVP GLD 75K, DL Pt
Posts: 1,086
Finally some people are trying to get the statistics right and use the data on asymptomatic cases and extrapolate it.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate
Precious little data on cohorts where everyone is tested and multiple times.
So around 3-4x worse than seasonal flu in the end. And if you catch it, even a small dose, then you will be immune, and possibly never know it.
Luckily the Netherlands is trying to find out how many of those there are: https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/19/blood-...erlands-report
A 2-week pause in transmission rate makes sense. Even a virus that is not nearly as deadly as we think (and I am almost certain of that) is still bad news if we all get it at the same time.
Next phase after 2-3 week pause is to resume normal activity with social distancing and handwashing while keeping high risk individuals home until proven treatments are available. This more distant mingling of people compared to "normal" behavior will be more efficient at creating some herd immunity and still result in fewer cases needing hospitalization that the preceeding two weeks.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate
Precious little data on cohorts where everyone is tested and multiple times.
So around 3-4x worse than seasonal flu in the end. And if you catch it, even a small dose, then you will be immune, and possibly never know it.
Luckily the Netherlands is trying to find out how many of those there are: https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/19/blood-...erlands-report
A 2-week pause in transmission rate makes sense. Even a virus that is not nearly as deadly as we think (and I am almost certain of that) is still bad news if we all get it at the same time.
Next phase after 2-3 week pause is to resume normal activity with social distancing and handwashing while keeping high risk individuals home until proven treatments are available. This more distant mingling of people compared to "normal" behavior will be more efficient at creating some herd immunity and still result in fewer cases needing hospitalization that the preceeding two weeks.
One given how they locked down and how people interacted and when the "first" transmitter was on very hard to establish the Ro, or please point me to the document where they were able to get an Ro
Second they locked down and continued to see cases grow, not clear how many were already infected and just developed symptoms then. Again back to the Ro and average latency.
Lastly the fatality is very misleading is there anywhere that is tracking how many actually have died since leaving the ship and returning home. Most countries and new/research is now focused on new cases/test/deaths locally.
Another critical miss in this analysis and miss interpreted by many, the Princess folks don't represent a good estimate as the real death rate will be impacted by the availability of ICU, and they had the best, the issue will be in places like Italy and US and other countries where there won't be enough ICUs to support those in need. Thus the actual mortality rate versus the can't help mortality rate are materially different and US and Italy as did WuHan couldn't support the ICUs needed to keep / hold mortality rate down as many they could save they simply had to choose who will live and who will die.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:10 pm
#1102
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
But how many in Wuhan who were mildly ill or asymptomatic would have avoided that overloaded healthcare system and never got tested at all?
That robs the denonimator of a bunch of cases in an area where this went unchecked and undiscovered for weeks.
Therefore we need to ANTIBODY TEST a cohort of 10,000 non-cases in Wuhan to see how many have antibodies.
That robs the denonimator of a bunch of cases in an area where this went unchecked and undiscovered for weeks.
Therefore we need to ANTIBODY TEST a cohort of 10,000 non-cases in Wuhan to see how many have antibodies.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:11 pm
#1103
Join Date: May 2012
Location: BKK/SIN/YYZ/YUL
Programs: DL, AC, Bonvoy, Accor, Hilton
Posts: 2,923
Consider the following:
2004 - SARS
2008 - Avian
2010 - Swine
2012 - Mers
2014 - Ebola
2016 - Zika
2018 - Ebola
2020 - Now, Corona
In addition to all of the above, I can't even recount all the other "dire" needs we were briefed on. Perhaps, the Coronavirus is different? Even then, I just don't feel the sense of fear and urgency, because, as they say, I've been around the block so many times. While anything is possible and this "may" prove as or more catastrophic than the Experts are predicting, my experience has been that "this time it's different" are the four most expensive words in history.
2004 - SARS
2008 - Avian
2010 - Swine
2012 - Mers
2014 - Ebola
2016 - Zika
2018 - Ebola
2020 - Now, Corona
In addition to all of the above, I can't even recount all the other "dire" needs we were briefed on. Perhaps, the Coronavirus is different? Even then, I just don't feel the sense of fear and urgency, because, as they say, I've been around the block so many times. While anything is possible and this "may" prove as or more catastrophic than the Experts are predicting, my experience has been that "this time it's different" are the four most expensive words in history.
All that being said, I ask if the OP has now had a change of heart and what would the OP say to others who downplay this crisis and the impact of the infection.
Does the OP now recognize that he/she got it wrong and that the attitude contributed to the crisis?
Mar 20, 2020, 3:15 pm
#1104
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,410
Furthermore, containment would be basically impossible without a test--and that takes time to develop.
The Chinese Communist Party is a kleptocracy/dictatorship. They don’t have freedom of the press, or impartial investigative journalism. Would you have believed news reports coming out of the Iron Curtain during the Cold War?
The point is none of us can ever know for certain if we are truly getting the full picture from what their Politburo puts out on any topic, frankly.
The point is none of us can ever know for certain if we are truly getting the full picture from what their Politburo puts out on any topic, frankly.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:16 pm
#1105
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
Programs: AA, BAEC, Alaska, Flying Blue, United, IHG, Hilton
Posts: 2,950
Sweden's national government has been reluctant to do much shutting down of anything, although they did get the high schools and higher ed closed down and have encouraged people to work from home if it's non-disruptive. But I am betting that they will very soon change course since the UK and US are doing more than they are and lots of the larger businesses have sort of got ahead of the government now in closing down.
Unlike in most of the rest of Europe, Sweden won't even shut down its premier ski resorts and the testing around them has been seriously lacking .... probably because they don't want to kill off business as usual for as long as they think they can get away with it nationally and internationally.
Unlike in most of the rest of Europe, Sweden won't even shut down its premier ski resorts and the testing around them has been seriously lacking .... probably because they don't want to kill off business as usual for as long as they think they can get away with it nationally and internationally.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:22 pm
#1106
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: 42.1% in PDX , 49.9% in PVG & 8% in the air somewhere
Programs: Marriott Ambassador Elite, UA 1K, AS MVP GLD 75K, DL Pt
Posts: 1,086
Mar 20, 2020, 3:27 pm
#1107
Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bregenz, Austria
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Posts: 2,950
Mar 20, 2020, 3:33 pm
#1108
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
I fear the Netherlands is just too early in the outbreak to see a significant number immune. Wuhan data would be a great approximation for an urban area, or Hubei data as an approximation of herd immunity for a mix or urban and rural.
Temperature data from the past won't do it. Need antibodies. It is the crucial step to see where we fall in the Contagious vs Deadly risk assessment. But "Max Contagious" AND "Max Deadly" is not accurate.
And "relaxing our guard" is definitely NOT an option. The very end of the medium article goes over what needs to be done inside that 45-day window. By then we will know more.
Shutting down non-essential businesses for more than 3 weeks is the worst cost/benefit policy decision we can make.
Temperature data from the past won't do it. Need antibodies. It is the crucial step to see where we fall in the Contagious vs Deadly risk assessment. But "Max Contagious" AND "Max Deadly" is not accurate.
And "relaxing our guard" is definitely NOT an option. The very end of the medium article goes over what needs to be done inside that 45-day window. By then we will know more.
Shutting down non-essential businesses for more than 3 weeks is the worst cost/benefit policy decision we can make.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:42 pm
#1109
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,410
China has a lower infection rate than the EU, there's no reason to block travelers.
Mar 20, 2020, 3:54 pm
#1110
Suspended
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
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Posts: 102,095
Within the last 24 hours, in just Italy, over 600 more people have been added to the Italian death toll as a result of this virus:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.alj...224219279.html
That’s how dangerous the situation is and can be elsewhere too.
How do you convince people to avoid non-essential domestic and international travel in impacted countries when they insist to continue with non-essential trips that are a risk for the traveler and for others?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.alj...224219279.html
That’s how dangerous the situation is and can be elsewhere too.
How do you convince people to avoid non-essential domestic and international travel in impacted countries when they insist to continue with non-essential trips that are a risk for the traveler and for others?
Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 20, 2020 at 4:09 pm