I do not believe CX would launch VIE so soon after it launches neighboring MUC. Further up north, I could see HEL before WAW, so Scandinavian traffic could be routes through an interline with AY. I feel that IST is low-hanging fruit. CX used to fly there and TK will this summer increase its offerings on IST HKG to 10 weekly.

AY used to be the cheap and cheerful option but since no Russia overfly, I havn't found them to be very competitive on price which is understandable given they have had to go from 9.5 hours to 13.5 hours on the sector. Between the uncompetitive price and the rather..."Nordic" hard and soft product...

[QUOTE=Reply1984;36819229]I think there could be some extra room for long-haul flights based on the current A350/B777 fleet.

The current size of long-haul fleet is still comparable to that of 2018. Currently it consists of 30 A359+18 A35K + 34 B77W=82; back to 2018 it was 22 A359 + 8 A35K + 52 B77W=82.

When comparing long-haul destinations and frequency, North America and Australia have nearly reached the same levels as in 2018, but Europe still lags behind a lot. I think we could see more long-haul flight additions even before the delivery of B779 in 2026 summer.[/QUOT


I seem to remember back in 2018 and 2019 some of the Australian flights were still A333s. These are now A350s and 777-ERs which will have tightened up the long haul capacity. The way new flights keep being dribbled out suggests that it is in line with additional crew becoming qualified.

I was surprised to read several people commenting that there is still spare capacity in the A333 fleet. In December 2019 there were 54 and now 43. The single aisle fleet went from 23 to 16, presumably reflecting reduced service to mainland China.

If A333s are available I would not be surprised to see one being earmarked for Melbourne to quickly soak up part of the increase in permitted flights to key Australian cities and either A333s or A350s used to bring BNE and PER to double daily, thereby blocking any competition. Another A333 could be used for ADL, perhaps with the odd tag to HBA. Other candidates for any increase in medium haul capacity must be KHI, LHE, BAH, MCT, AMM and CAI. and after some political change, IKA (perhaps with a new code).

It's interesting that both Karachi and Lahore only have one mainland Chinese carrier plus Thai for directs east of India. But while Pakistan is keen on a direct link the security situation at Karachi deters even mainland Chinese businesses. I think Cathay would be wary of this. Since PIA was unbanned in Europe and is coming back to London/Paris wonder if they might be plotting a broader return and could come back to HK as well.

BAH is a historic base for CX but not sure it is the traffic center it once was, especially with competing nearby hubs.

AMM is interesting because Royal Jordanian used to fly the route - wonder if they would have shown interest if there was potential.

I think CAI is the most likely of these. EgyptAir used to do the route I believe, but there is new potential perhaps being brewed up as well: InvestHK just opened an office there in November.

(Other places InvestHK has offices where CX does not fly and are in range, for what it's worth: Nairobi, Oslo, Goteburg, Almaty, and the difficult but not impossible with one technical stop on the way back Mexico City.)

What about Almaty in Kazakhstan? Kazakhstan is a very important partner in Chinese Belt-and-Road Initiatives. Connections between Kazakhstan and China are tighter especially after the Ukraine war. The economy also looks good. Almaty is within A330 range and has decent cargo demand.

Yep, it seems like a good candidate. Would premiums be enough?

Suspect this would be an A321 route on limited frequency at best. Air Astana operated the route 2-3x weekly pre-Covid however have not yet returned I believe.

CX can also think of launching below routes:
1. CMN
2. YUL
3. HEL
4. LIS
5. CPT
6. MLE

1. CMN, 3. HEL: CX will not fly into a route to connect into a a partner https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cath...l#post36807182 .

The location has to be profitable on a stand-alone basis. How many people want to go to Helsinki/Casablanca just to visit Helsinki or Casablanca?

I will assert CX isn't flying to LHR or SYD just because it wants to play nice with BA and QF - CX is outright hostile at least to QF. The cities have enough origin/destination traffic to justify 4X flights (the latter is me going home).

Have they ever said they won't fly just to connect to a partner? Quoting your own post doesn't make it true.

In any case for HEL, 27,000 visitors a year from HK (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...try-of-origin/) covers 2 x 359 a week. Of course some will still go one stop but with connecting pax, you can still probably fill 2 maybe 3 x 359 a week. But they have bigger fish to fry and the extreme Russia detour probably makes it unattractive.

The fact CX dropped the route after one year disproves your point? Or should I say "they will fly to connect to a partner but not for long"?

Thats one data point. Lets see how long DFW lasts.

Anyways, I doubt JL is flying DOH and HEL out of the goodness of their heart to connect to a partner. They fly to make money just as CX does and would drop DOH and HEL if those connections aren't profitable or they thought they could make more money elsewhere just as CX did.

DFW sort of kills your argument, doesn't it?

Not according to CX's own statements. I did look at the DFW press release https://news.cathaypacific.com/catha...e-to-hong-kong .

"Cathay Pacific Senior Vice President for the Americas Chris van den Hooven said: “It is with tremendous pride and excitement that we announce the arrival of Cathay Pacific at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport in 2025, a major milestone in the airline’s growth within North America. Our new flight is a further testament to the airline’s mission to connect passengers to our home city of Hong Kong and beyond.”

"“Connecting the cultural and commercial opportunities between DFW and Hong Kong with a nonstop flight is crucial for these two globally influential regions,” said Sean Donohue, DFW’s Chief Executive Officer. “

Connectivity to AA isn't explicitly mentioned. I don't think you can realistically even say it's implied in the press release.

They mention codeshares here https://businesstravelerusa.com/news...g-kong-dallas/ .
(what codeshares? I can't even see a CX codeshare to say to CLT/MIA/ATL thru DFW in May...?)

But really, how much can CX imply they're connecting to AA without mentioning AA by name...?

All airport CEOs need to make claims like that, regardless of whether or not they are true.:D I will confess that I really like AA's DFW-PVG flight (minimal jetlag in both directions), but I've yet to meet someone who's actually started/finished it at DFW.