[Master Thread] Further Route Resumptions?
 

Any news of more route resumptions? It's been awhile since any other routes have been mentioned. Off the top of my head Rome & Adelaide are still missing, any idea of expected return?

We have a number of discussions going on this; see this thread for example:

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cath...thread-19.html

The long and short of it is because of the pilot/crew shortage resumptions are likely to be slower than anticipated.

However, there are some new routes coming online in June, such as Barcelona and the fifth freedom route between Singapore and Bangkok. Chennai and Colombo also just resumed this month.

There is considerable hinting about Gatwick resuming in October, as well as vaguer hints about Riyadh. Kolkata has been mentioned in the context of cargo but it did sustain a Cathay Dragon passenger route before as well so wonder if that could be a joint resumption.

Adelaide looked like a possibility last year but no definitive scheduling, and I believe Rome is still considered not permanently canceled but zero word on when it might come back.

This is also a question that I have previously posed, and I too would love to know if (and I'm sure there are) there are any more reliable sources RE. Cathay's route resumptions. They are still intent on aiming for 100% pre-pandemic capacity towards the end of this year, and already, progress has been made in terms of restoring capacity on key routes (e.g. LHR), as well as the reopening of "thinner" long haul routes (e.g. BCN). Based on current hinting, I think the following are most likely to be resumed by Cathay Pacific in the near future:

LGW- particularly with LHR having been restored to 5 daily, and as previously mentioned, has been hinted extensively on here and elsewhere. Rumoured to be returning in October, 5 weekly with the A350-900. I also think that the recent announcement of SQ coming to LGW is fuelling their return so that they can compete against SQ from LGW for transit passengers, similarly to how the two carriers compete at LHR.

FCO- served for many years prior to being suspended.

Just some guess:

Maybe the migration wave after 2019 might change the expansion plan of CX. UK, Canada and Australia are the most popular destinations. While Australia is well served, some second tier cities in UK and Canada could be the potential target.

For example, Montreal and Calgary in Canada and Birmingham and Edinburgh in UK are good candidates for the new service.

Apart from that, Newark EWR could also be back soon. The Russian airspace issues could not be solved in the foreseeable future and the east coast is in serious supply shortage.

Interestingly RE. Birmingham, apparently CX were recently in discussions with the airport. Unsure if these have concluded/ongoing, but I agree, it looks like Birmingham could launch at some point. However, I'd think CX will reinstate LGW first and increase MAN to daily prior to another UK port being opened.

I would expect preference to be given to reaching daily frequency before starting new services elsewhere. When the do consider starting new services I wonder if they would find a triangle HKG-EDI-DUB-HKG attractive, especially if they could find a way to issue the EDI-HKG-EDI tickets with a transfer in DUB and reduce UK travel tax from long haul to short haul. Elsewhere I would look to a return of DVO, there being so much fresh produce to be shipped out of there in addition to overseas workers and seamen who will connect to long haul flights and incoming tourists.

Are you suggesting Cathay offer a fifth freedom EDI-DUB flight? I don't think they have the right. If they reintroduced DUB you could just do it with Aer Lingus being part of OW.

I would love for them to come somewhere further north than Manchester for a direct though since the second-tier UK airports already have good connecting options. From Newcastle for example you can connect via other airlines to HKG in not only London but Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, and Dubai. However, flying from Edinburgh would be an attractive alternative if direct.

Most of these secondary European airports have a market that is too small to fill a nonstop longhaul airplane from/to HKG or any other Asian destination.
QR has been quite successful there. They offer flights from DUB and EDI. EK has 2 daily from DUB. But that is because they gather pax in EDI/DUB flying to a lot of other destinations than HKG.
Of course, there are also other options by European airlines via LHR, CDG, FRA,..

I don't see how EDI or DUB could be served nonstop by CX in the foreseeable future. And any HKG-DUB-EDI-HKG, or the like, is unfeasible as they would nee a specific crew for the DUB-EDI.

YYC maybe
YUL? Tarbenac, not a destination for HK out migration
No CX problem with flying over Russian airspace for CX JFK or YYZ services.

Overall I think we may see more frequencies to YVR and YYZ first. YYZ will have 2 daily flight service in this summer which I think has already reached pre-pandemic level.

I am far from being an expert in these matters but BA used to have rights to many points from HKG. Maybe that would provide an opening for fifth freedom EDI-DUB. Alternatively I remember talk of some tkts ex ML being split into two parts to achieve an improvement in pricing.

As regards crew time I wonder if the 3 or 4 man flight crew could fly HKG-EDI-DUB. Also if it would work better as a morning flight, say 9am, departure from HKG to match with overnight arrivals from AUS and red eyes plus early birds from MNL

Just dreaming.

The population of Hong Kong has been on the rise for the past year and is now back to 7.53 million the birth rate also increased in the past year.

Birmingham is a non starter for CX or BA as too close to Manchester and London. Edinburgh does not have enough potential premium traffic. Nether Montreal or Calgary have ever been of interest to Cathay as low business traffic and freight potential and too small a population to support a daily or 5 times a week flight to Hong Kong. I suspect that Dublin could return at some point in the future as well as seasonal Cape Town

To me, most reasonable long haul schedules ahead are:

JNB increase to daily 359
CPT return 3 weekly 359
LGW return daily 359
SEA return 3 weekly 359
BOS daily 77W
ORD 5 weekly 35K
JFK 4 daily 2 77W + 359 + 35K
LHR 5 daily 77W
SFO equipment return to 77W
BCN (announced already) 3 weekly 359
FCO 35K/359 3 weekly
ZRH 3 weekly (increase by 1)


To my curiosity, did CX operate AMS pre-covid with a 77W? and was CPT year round for CX pre-covid?

AMS A35K since 2018 I think

Much of this rise has been newly settled mainlanders, expats trickling back from Singapore where they emergency-fled during the worst Covid restrictions in 2022; the vast majority of the emigrated HKers have stayed abroad. There's also the issue of how HK counts its population (the figures include a "mobile population" of those who have been in the city over the previous...I believe half year, which means it captures people who have left for some time, or those who have left and visit while retaining resident status.)

Assuming the population has fully bounced back though, it's to some extent best of both worlds for aviation as it means a stable home market and a new diaspora market abroad willing to fly back - subject, of course, to some caveats (some of the diaspora will never want to return and some of the mainlanders will never want to pay HK prices or fly overseas and may only fly by heading back to Shenzhen and taking a cheaper intra-mainland flight.)