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-   -   [Master Thread] Further Route Resumptions? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cathay-pacific-cathay/2152503-master-thread-further-route-resumptions.html)

percysmith Jan 16, 2025 9:40 pm

Well if I don't take a extreme, nitpicking view, this implies CX may be looking at AA's connecting traffic.
But without actual co-operation of AA?

So it's up to award tix, OTAs to book AA flights into CX.
And in one PNR, to ensure bags get booked checked through?

It's about as "alliance" as CX flying to DXB.

US HK UK flyer Jan 16, 2025 9:50 pm

CX mentioned in other statements that DFW was in part about Latin American connecting traffic. That implies feeding AA.


Originally Posted by derek2010 (Post 36822168)
CX can also think of launching below routes:
1. CMN
2. YUL
3. HEL
4. LIS
5. CPT
6. MLE

Already discussed CPT and MLE upthread while others have discussed HEL and CMN above so:

YUL - there was a big discussion about this on Airliners.net. Simple explanation is there's not enough premium traffic. It also doesn't have the diaspora feed that Toronto and Vancouver have. Many have thought Calgary was more likely.

LIS - low priority seasonal at best maybe especially if they could effectively partner with TAP on Brazil routes. There's also maybe a tiny Macau population interested in this that could grow given ambitions there to link to the "Portuguese world." (There used to be a direct from Macau but there hasn't been for many years.) I traveled through frequently pre-Covid and the airport started incorporating a surprising amount of Chinese characters so maybe there's also some hidden popularity I'm not aware of.

Reply1984 Jan 16, 2025 10:01 pm


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36822295)
DFW sort of kills your argument, doesn't it?

Not necessarily. In Europe CX has quite a few partners to connect their passengers to other European cities, such as LH at FRA/MUC and BA at LHR, so adding HEL is far from urgent. But in the US, feeding passengers into AA's flights at LAX/ORD seems not work well. Only 16% of CX's passengers will go to another US ports via a US hub according to the report quoted here. If my understanding is correct, AA's presence at LAX/ORD is declining but still robust at DFW. I think CX sees the potential here.

https://simpleflying.com/cathay-paci...a-next-summer/

According to booking data, Cathay transported an estimated 2.1 million roundtrip passengers between Hong Kong and the US/Canada in the year to July 2024. It can be roughly broken down as follows:
  • ~45% of passengers connected to another flight in Hong Kong (mainland China, the Philippines, and Thailand were significant).
  • ~39% of the traffic was point-to-point (they only flew between the two cities).
  • ~10% 'bridged': they transferred to a flight in Hong Kong and the US/Canada.
  • ~6% originated/ended in Hong Kong but connected to a different flight at a US hub.


US HK UK flyer Jan 16, 2025 10:06 pm


Originally Posted by Reply1984 (Post 36822385)
Not necessarily. In Europe CX has quite a few partners to connect their passengers to other European cities, such as LH at FRA/MUC and BA at LHR, so adding HEL is far from urgent. But in the US, feeding passengers into AA's flights at LAX/ORD seems not work well. Only 16% of CX's passengers will go to another US ports via a US hub according to the report quoted here. If my understanding is correct, AA's presence at LAX/ORD is declining but still robust at DFW. I think CX sees the potential here.

https://simpleflying.com/cathay-paci...a-next-summer/

I wonder how those CX numbers compare to other airlines. It's especially interesting that there's more connecting happening in HKG than stateside. My initial feeling is that, compared to most of the world with a few exceptions, US connections are a very bothersome deterrent - the need to go through immigration, collect your bag, etc.

moondog Jan 16, 2025 10:07 pm


Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 36822350)
Well if I don't take a extreme, nitpicking view, this implies CX may be looking at AA's connecting traffic.
But without actual co-operation of AA?

So it's up to award tix, OTAs to book AA flights into CX.
And in one PNR, to ensure bags get booked checked through?

It's about as "alliance" as CX flying to DXB.

I hate to bring this up again, but bear in mind that JX has aspirations of joining OW, and seamless connections with AA at DFW are the type of thing that could bolster its case (relying on the original sense of the "alliance" concept). But, by CX getting to that punch bowl first, they might need to find a Plan B.

Reply1984 Jan 16, 2025 10:11 pm


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36822395)
I wonder how those CX numbers compare to other airlines. It's especially interesting that there's more connecting happening in HKG than stateside. My initial feeling is that, compared to most of the world with a few exceptions, US connections are a very bothersome deterrent - the need to go through immigration, collect your bag, etc.

I read one report before that when AA operated HKG-DFW, 80% of the passengers would continue their trips to other cities via DFW. And combined with UA and CX’s HKG-ORD, over 55% of passengers connected at ORD(You can say UA carried more connected passengers).

percysmith Jan 16, 2025 10:15 pm


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36822363)
LIS - low priority seasonal at best maybe especially if they could effectively partner with TAP on Brazil routes. There's also maybe a tiny Macau population interested in this that could grow given ambitions there to link to the "Portuguese world." (There used to be a direct from Macau but there hasn't been for many years.) I traveled through frequently pre-Covid and the airport started incorporating a surprising amount of Chinese characters so maybe there's also some hidden popularity I'm not aware of.

Portuguese passport from Golden Visa 7 days per year for 5 years https://www.savoryandpartners.com/pr...tment/portugal. The direct route will be handy.

majorpuppy Jan 16, 2025 10:37 pm


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36822331)
All airport CEOs need to make claims like that, regardless of whether or not they are true.:D I will confess that I really like AA's DFW-PVG flight (minimal jetlag in both directions), but I've yet to meet someone who's actually started/finished it at DFW.

exactly, feels like every airline and airport uses the exact same words and speeches everytime a new route is announced. its really irritating and unrealistic.

i think DFW does have some natural demand, given non oneworld airlines like KE, AF, EK fly to it right now. though still DFW is AA's biggest base and on towards latin america/ mexico/ caribbean/ south America, places no asian carrier can access easily, and given AA flew daily before, justifies the route a lot. HEL already has finnair, so whats the point of CX?

considering all new routes are less than daily, and cathay still doesn't have daily in quite a lot of bigger markets, I would assume making everything daily is top priority at this point. after cathay has a extremely strong presence in western countries, considering more and more middle east/ africa/ central Asia ties lately, I still think cathay has a chance to go to those unserved markets to increase its global image and presence even further. it really depends on how the situation of the world and demand changes in the future...

US HK UK flyer Jan 16, 2025 11:16 pm


Originally Posted by Reply1984 (Post 36822409)
I read one report before that when AA operated HKG-DFW, 80% of the passengers would continue their trips to other cities via DFW. And combined with UA and CX’s HKG-ORD, over 55% of passengers connected at ORD(You can say UA carried more connected passengers).

Presumably AA carried more connected as well. Lacking codeshare on these routes is probably an issue with CX operating as well.

percysmith Jan 17, 2025 12:24 am


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36822490)
Lacking codeshare on these routes is probably an issue with CX operating as well.

Seems like from above announcements CX "I don't care"


CX860 Jan 17, 2025 4:06 am


Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 36822574)
Seems like from above announcements CX "I don't care"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY

I think you're reading way too much into a press release probably written by an intern who then probably outsourced it to chatGPT...

Too much travel Jan 18, 2025 10:53 pm


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36822363)
LIS - low priority seasonal at best maybe especially if they could effectively partner with TAP on Brazil routes. There's also maybe a tiny Macau population interested in this that could grow given ambitions there to link to the "Portuguese world." (There used to be a direct from Macau but there hasn't been for many years.) I traveled through frequently pre-Covid and the airport started incorporating a surprising amount of Chinese characters so maybe there's also some hidden popularity I'm not aware of.

Sometimes it feels like 10% of HK and 1% of Mainland PRC folks have applied for the Portugal residency / future passport scheme as their bolthole and / or second passport! I'm making those numbers up obviously, but there's a surprisingly highly number of HK / PRC people who now need to fulfil a minimum days' residency requirement in Portugal.

Too much travel Jan 18, 2025 10:56 pm


Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 36822416)
Portuguese passport from Golden Visa 7 days per year for 5 years https://www.savoryandpartners.com/pr...tment/portugal. The direct route will be handy.

Exactly - Portugal has been one of the more popular residency scheme options for HKSAR and PRC passport holders looking for a bolthole / back-up.

CX860 Jan 19, 2025 3:20 am


Originally Posted by Too much travel (Post 36827295)
Sometimes it feels like 10% of HK and 1% of Mainland PRC folks have applied for the Portugal residency / future passport scheme as their bolthole and / or second passport! I'm making those numbers up obviously, but there's a surprisingly highly number of HK / PRC people who now need to fulfil a minimum days' residency requirement in Portugal.

Hasn't Portugal been tightening their scheme, e.g. Lisbon and Porto doesn't count anymore? I guess there's still a bunch who already got their golden visa. I am told Greece and .... Romania are the new "frontier" golden visa partner. Apparently Greece's investment amount is half of Portugal and Romania is even less. Maybe we can add those to the list haha. Joking aside, Lisbon would make sense as a summer seasonal in the same bucket as Barcelona and Rome until there is enough demand/planes/pilots to fly year round.

US HK UK flyer Jan 20, 2025 11:54 pm

Some bad news for US market prospects in here. Analysis of the top international routes from the US shows SFO-HKG fell from 8th to 65th between 2019 and 2024 (Oct 23-Oct 24 was analyzed). SimpleFlying attributes this in part to losing SQ and HX on the route, but also that CX traffic was still half what it was:

https://simpleflying.com/the-usas-to...by-passengers/


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