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-   -   [Master Thread] Further Route Resumptions? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cathay-pacific-cathay/2152503-master-thread-further-route-resumptions.html)

moondog Jan 21, 2025 12:04 am


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36832519)
Some bad news for US market prospects in here. Analysis of the top international routes from the US shows SFO-HKG fell from 8th to 65th between 2019 and 2024 (Oct 23-Oct 24 was analyzed). SimpleFlying attributes this in part to losing SQ and HX on the route, but also that CX traffic was still half what it was:

https://simpleflying.com/the-usas-to...by-passengers/

Two TPE routes in the top 10? Interesting.

US HK UK flyer Jan 21, 2025 12:12 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36832528)
Two TPE routes in the top 10? Interesting.

It's unclear if the presence of the TPE flights on the list is new. At least partly the numbers are driven by immigrant diaspora links. Lots more Taiwanese on the US West Coast...imagine the number may be higher for HK flights from Vancouver given more Hong Kongers there.

I don't know much much traffic other stuff like the chip industry really commands, or how much factors like the introduction of Starlux have played in.

moondog Jan 21, 2025 12:19 am

I personally (which, I realize doesn't mean a whole lot) regard TPE, TYO, ICN, and HKG as functionally equivalent transit points (between the US and China because direct flights still cost a lot more), so seeing TPE's strength v the others surprised me.

wadia13 Jan 21, 2025 12:19 am


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36832536)
It's unclear if the presence of the TPE flights on the list is new. At least partly the numbers are driven by immigrant diaspora links. Lots more Taiwanese on the US West Coast...imagine the number may be higher for HK flights from Vancouver given more Hong Kongers there.

YES, and that was true even in the 1980s when I first started flying. Perhaps even before that.

wadia13 Jan 21, 2025 12:23 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36832544)
I personally (which, I realize doesn't mean a whole lot) regard TPE, TYO, ICN, and HKG as functionally equivalent transit points (between the US and China because direct flights still cost a lot more), so seeing TPE's strength v the others surprised me.

Obviously not. Just as one example that has been discussed ad nauseam around here, TPE to SEA vs HKG to SEA (or lack of for the latter).

moondog Jan 21, 2025 12:30 am


Originally Posted by wadia13 (Post 36832551)
Obviously not. Just as one example that has been discussed ad nauseam around here, TPE to SEA vs HKG to SEA (or lack of for the latter).

The Seattle discussion has more to do with Seattle to Asia in general than TPE in particular. If BR, CI, JX, DL, PR, and soon AS hadn't scaled up there, there *might* be room for a HKG flight, but CX jumping into the current firestorm would be moronic.

wadia13 Jan 21, 2025 12:56 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36832560)
The Seattle discussion has more to do with Seattle to Asia in general than TPE in particular. If BR, CI, JX, DL, PR, and soon AS hadn't scaled up there, there *might* be room for a HKG flight, but CX jumping into the current firestorm would be moronic.

Yes, but it's not just about transit point links. Immigrant diaspora links are just as important (or sometimes more so) in accounting for a particular route's popularity (as pointed out above). In this example, the large number of Taiwanese on US West Coast is one important factor driving demand between TPE and US West Coast.

NZflyer777 Jan 21, 2025 1:00 am


Originally Posted by wadia13 (Post 36832594)
Yes, but it's not just about transit point links. Immigrant diaspora links are just as important (or sometimes more so) in accounting for a particular route's popularity (as pointed out above). In this example, the large number of Taiwanese on US West Coast is one important factor driving demand between TPE and US West Coast.

and a superior product by the Taiwanese airlines.
which was not the case 10 years ago.
CX can't compete anymore.

moondog Jan 21, 2025 1:04 am


Originally Posted by wadia13 (Post 36832594)
Yes, but it's not just about transit point links. Immigrant diaspora links are just as important (or sometimes more so) in accounting for a particular route's popularity (as pointed out above). In this example, the large number of Taiwanese on US West Coast is one important factor driving demand between TPE and US West Coast.

We're talking about Seattle, not California.

And, there are more SE Asians than Taiwanese there.

lixiaojuventus Jan 21, 2025 2:05 am


Originally Posted by NZflyer777 (Post 36832599)
and a superior product by the Taiwanese airlines.
which was not the case 10 years ago.
CX can't compete anymore.

What a joke! CX A350 fleets are vastly superior to CI and BR, not to mention their superior lounges.

wadia13 Jan 21, 2025 2:14 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 36832605)
We're talking about Seattle, not California.

And, there are more SE Asians than Taiwanese there.

I take your point. But your original point was being surprised about the popularity of TPE to Los Angeles & San Francisco. My point is that the immigrant diaspora links (large number of Taiwanese in West Coast - at least in CA) explains the popularity of those routes so there is no surprise. I don't have the statistics of Taiwanese in Seattle/WA state so won't argue there. I agree that with TPE - SEA, immigration diaspora links probably doesn't account for all the airlines plying that route.

wadia13 Jan 21, 2025 2:41 am


Originally Posted by US HK UK flyer (Post 36832519)
Some bad news for US market prospects in here. Analysis of the top international routes from the US shows SFO-HKG fell from 8th to 65th between 2019 and 2024 (Oct 23-Oct 24 was analyzed). SimpleFlying attributes this in part to losing SQ and HX on the route, but also that CX traffic was still half what it was:

https://simpleflying.com/the-usas-to...by-passengers/

In terms of CX traffic on SFO-HKG being half of what it was, I wonder how much of this is geopolitical (so-called "decoupling" between US & China)?

percysmith Jan 21, 2025 3:43 am


Originally Posted by wadia13 (Post 36832724)
In terms of CX traffic on SFO-HKG being half of what it was, I wonder how much of this is geopolitical (so-called "decoupling" between US & China)?

And lower Mainland demand https://crankyflier.com/2024/11/26/c...t-from-the-us/

NZflyer777 Jan 21, 2025 3:50 am


Originally Posted by lixiaojuventus (Post 36832674)
What a joke! CX A350 fleets are vastly superior to CI and BR, not to mention their superior lounges.

tell that to the customers who are abandoning CX.

CX just released its december 2024 resultsresults
2.2 million.
The same size as CX in 2010
https://news.cathaypacific.com/catha...er-2010-171375

Which means in 14 years the net growth at CX is Zero....

No other major airline has grown zero% in 14 years.

US HK UK flyer Jan 21, 2025 4:24 am


Originally Posted by NZflyer777 (Post 36832832)
No other major airline has grown zero% in 14 years.

A bit unfair when obviously they grew it substantially after 2010 and are growing again now.


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