A significant reason for the drop in demand is the high prices (compared not only to pre-Covid but also to all other ex-China markets).

and politics and other factors made a lot of the mainland Chinese travel domestic. for example visits to Australia is only around 60%

Um...
Seems not the case either.
US airlines refuse to further increase the capacity of ex-China market because of the yield.

Not really. Delta and American are short on capable planes because, like CX, they got rid of a bunch during Covid. United has stated it will launch a second SFO-PVG frequency if it receives approval.

The REAL issue is that if the US side gets more slots, the Chinese side has to as well. The US3 definitely don't want this!

By current us china agreement, us and chinese airlines have 50 weekly flight at maximum each week respectively.
chinese airlines has already fully utilised the quota and us airlines has used around 70% only and do not intent to increase further due to yield issue.

Delta itself has been squatting on those unused slots. United is trying to wrestle them free but at this point in time, they still belong to Delta, and the dot has been remarkably patient.

[I don’t agree] flights that pull in 2-3x revenue (per available seat mile) than most European routes have yield issues.

The fact that Chinese airlines maxed out their 50 within three days of the latest increase is a pretty strong indication that they will do so again at the next opportunity...and the opportunity after that. Remember, they have ~7 airlines jockeying for slots and they aren't resource constrained.

THIS will help create a yield issue for the US3, and "demand" will obviously increase as well because the number of people who are willing to purchase $600 fares but aren't okay with $2500 fares is substantial.

I'm not suggesting demand will return to 2019 levels, just that it will receive quite a nice jolt if we unclip their wings.

The market is using other hubs to transit.
hubs that have better managed home airlines that did not fire their pilots and get rid of their planes.

If the Taiwanese , SQ etc for suffering iI would sympathise with your claims around the market

But they are eating CX's lunch and Dinner.

While CX has set itself a target to become like TG

All dying airlines and businesses say there is "no market"

The smart ones adapt.
SQ fully adapted to India and the Indian customer and thus get a siginficant share of the US Oceania and Asia to India traffic

CX has so forgotten what the Kangaroo route is lol.

HK and CX are so full of themselves they even think the mainland customers are below them.



SQ and SIN adapted.
CX and HKG went to sleep.

Airline revenue management 101: Transit passengers are very low-yield. The core of airline revenue is generated by O&D demand.

tell that to EK QR and SQ who all made booming profits with transit traffic.

It's clear Airline economics 101 is do the opposite of what CX is doing.
Speaking of low yield.
UO is super low yield...

You should do some homework.

SIN transit passengers only take 20%. DXB only at 30%. DOH 40%. HKG sits at 20%-25%.

The Q3-Q4 2019 is a great example of illustration of the impact of the mix of O&D and transit demand.
You should look at HKG traffic data, visitor data and CX profitability by yourself [overly personal content removed by moderator]

Yes SIN and SQ are better managed and more organized and proactive .
While CX and HKG are sleeping.
we agree here.

https://www.9news.com.au/videos/nati...010go0t752i66h

It seems like CX would resume flying to ADL 5 weekly. This would be a big win.

I don't think any other international airline outside the Middle East can follow Emirates' revenue and profit structure, so any comparison to Emirates' profitability would be an apples to oranges comparison, and not appropriate. They run a super connector business model. The likes of Cathay, SQ, and even the Taiwanese carriers don't follow that principle to such a high reliance and should have a good O&D base. In Cathay's case, cargo as well.

There is plenty of choice out of HKG, or even SIN for that matter, to fly 1-stop. This was the same before or after COVID. But post-COVID, have we seen actual numbers that pinpoint the theoretical? Are passengers dropping direct flights for 1-stop through another country? Mainland Chinese carriers have been slow to resume capacity and long-haul to the US remains at a fraction of "normal", but have Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese carriers seen a substantial increase in HK connecting traffic, and perhaps leading to more profits? Cahay's load factor was almost 82% from its last set of monthly figures, which is a pretty decent number and not that far behind from SQ.

Has anyone done that homework?

....and of course these government controlled airlines have access to unlimited cheap money and pay very little for fuel .
Coupled with little pressure to make a normal return on investment they have huge advantages not available to normal commercial airlines.
Put any way these airlines are far from normal commercial entities and they enjoy huge advantages not available to their competitors making them tough to compete with.

its not a battle of commercial entity rather its battle of nations/regions and stategic connection reaching far beyond realms of passenger tourist preference.

for me as mere consumer i just choose what flight suits me. govt can do their battles themslves as long as they get me frpm A to B