Honestly with so much economic uncertainty all around the world, it makes sense for Cathay to be more conservative. Stock market is just one indication of the economy and what airlines worry about is inflation and cost of living. People are perhaps more conservative about future travel plan or stick with regional instead of more exotic overseas destinations. Business travels will not return to the pre-Covid time, and top executives are flying private now. Telecommunication takes over many actual business trips now. While premium travel remains strong even in US, they are mostly leisure premium travel now.

Fundamentally the problem with Cathay is just lack of long haul aircraft because of the delay of Boeing 777-9s. CX bought those Airbus A350s for thinner ultra long haul routes and I have no doubt that Cathay will like to use those 777-9s on most North American routes, instead of Airbus A350s. But honestly it really does not matter now. If Cathay decides to buy more A350s, I doubt that they will get any new deliveries till on and after 2028. However I just don't see Boeing 777-9s being delivered soon and there will certainly be teething issues because of the unique wingtip design.

Airbus A350-1000 is a great aircraft and I don't think Cathay will go wrong if they order at least fifteen to twenty of them, unless they are waiting for the rumored Airbus A350 stretch version. They can always work out with Airbus for an "option" deal.

About second-hand Boeing 777-300ERs, I doubt that there are many available, given many airlines including Singapore Airlines have to hang on to them longer now. China Southern has a bunch of 787-8s available but those are possibly on the small side for Cathay.

Carfield

ummm have you seen the delivery list.
CX was third in the que and then delayed their deliveries so now are not even the 25th aircraft made.
considering the 54 strong fleet of 777 pre covid, CX has not even ordered enough 777 9 to replace and grow .

Other airlines are still taking deliveries of A350s and 787s and ordered A330 neos earlier, even a startup like Starlux managed to navigate covid and get delivery slots.
heck AI scooped up the A350s allocated for Russia.

It is down to CX's pathetic planning.

Pre covid CX + KA + UO is significantly larger than post covid 2025 CX plus UO.
Looking at retirements and deliveries, including A350 leases expiring.
expect net zero growth till 2031.

The lack of foresight only makes one think that Swire is keen to sell and would look to once the stock price exceeds 17HKD.

this is true but other airlines are also looking to buy these and CX current management dont have the skillset to do so.

I think they were quite late to the 339 show as well which I would argue is part of the reason why they are flying around J sliders from two generations ago.

Yes the 779s are very delayed and its out of CX's control.

Yes COVID happened and it was prudent to trim the fleet.

But we are so far past COVID and the 779 debacle has been going so long that CX really needs to take control of the situation rather than being reactive and blaming external factors. Theres a global crunch for planes but other airlines have been smart about it like AI taking SU planes and DL taking LA planes or LH buying a chunk of BT to secure ability to outsource flying.

maybe playing conservative is also not so bad from CX's profit perspective? It's bad for HKIA though which is another story. But yes, CX should have been more aggressive in retaining and acquiring long haul widebody aircrafts.

It's not necessarily bad for HKIA as it gives an opening for other airlines that might otherwise have been stomped out of markets by CX expansion post-Covid, when it has been taking over routes. These are also being limited by factors like Russian airspace and HK's shifting economic ties, but is not nonzero.

From HKIA's perspective, it loves to have as many long haul flights as possible, so i disagree.

Anyways, AA is likely to come back, and HKG prob needs more EU flights to be restored in terms of number of carriers and frequencies and that is constraint again by 1. Russian airspace issues, 2. lack of widebody aircraft, 3. uneconomical subsidies given to Chinese airlines which somehow distorts competition. ¹

Making my point here. Some of the airlines that are coming back that could have otherwise been stomped out of the market by CX are long-haul carriers.

Not sure which ones would be stomped out? I mean most of the carriers coming back are existing carriers and routes pre covid and similar/ reduced frequencies, and i dont see CX being a factor in their decision to cut the route.

Well, AA *may* come back, but it would certainly have been an easier decision if it were running DFW itself vs. CX having started the route. Lufthansa flies from Frankfurt still but CX took over the Munich route instead. Restarting the Riyadh route might mean less of a chance of Saudi or Riyadh air having tried it. Of course there are also many routes where traffic is down and Cathay surging back quickly meant others would not have had a chance to compete.

[QUOTE=Carfield;37230750]Honestly with so much economic uncertainty all around the world, it makes sense for Cathay to be more conservative. Stock market is just one indication of the economy and what airlines worry about is inflation and cost of living. People are perhaps more conservative about future travel plan or stick with regional instead of more exotic overseas destinations. Business travels will not return to the pre-Covid time, and top executives are flying private now. Telecommunication takes over many actual business trips now. While premium travel remains strong even in US, they are mostly leisure premium travel now./QUOTE]

Long haul J seems pretty packed everytime I take it but agree business travel will never return to pre-COVID levels. I think CX needs to lean into premium leisure a bit more like UA. What I think might work quite well is limited one season only seasonals like Ayers Rock or Ulan Bator or somewhere in Central Asia Nothing Hong Kong people love more than "limited edition". :)

Didn't they need to do both DFW and LAX to make the utilization work? I am contrarian on this don't think AA will come back and DL will not stick.

Have you seen the current 777-9 delivery list (order of scheduled deliveries)? If you have, care to share it here? And if you haven't, how would you know where CX currently is in the queue?

We all have to admit that CX has it restriction after COVID due to the HK government loan.

They have to pay before buy.

Already repaid. Tomorrow is the 1 year anniversary of when it was repaid.

https://news.cathaypacific.com/catha...ion-investment

widely available online .
CX is not in the first 25
​​​​​CX originally was to be the Asian launch customer.
ANA and SQ execs out maneuvered Swire and bumped ahead.