According to the previous bilitarael agreement, each party had rights to operate 70 weekly service to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, and CX got all of the 70.

And from my understanding, correct me if I am wrong, earlier this year, this agreeement was updated and the cap would be increased to 84 weekly in NS25 and 91 weekly in NW25. HX was awarded 14 weekly in NS25 and they planned to launch 1 daily service to SYD&MEL, and it seems that CX got the other 7 weekly quota in NW25 and they will boost its BNE/PER service.

By the way with HX downsizing and returning its A333 to lessors, HX is cutting its SYD service to 4 weekly and has not officially launched MEL service. I am curious when these unused quota will be returned and further allocated to CX.
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250618-hxnw25syd

Yup. That would be 77 slots for CX and 14 slots for HX.

From NW25,
CX service to Australia would be (28+21+14+14=77):
4 Daily SYD
3 Daily MEL
2 Daily BNE
2 Daily PER

HX service to Australia would be (7+7=14):
1 Daily SYD
1 Daily MEL

Still, HX is downsizing its 333 fleet, and, as the news said, HX's SYD service will be reduced to 4 weekly.
We would see after NW25, if the unused slot will be moved to CX or even given to CX for additional service/ 1 Daily to WSI (FYI: WSI is inside the cap).

From the fleet now, I am guessing PER might go down to A330 for CX's Australia service to free up more A350.
I am still waiting for year-round service to CNS and ADL.

(Or maybe if CX receives a new 32Q and has a new layout, a triangular route, HKG-CNS-DRW-HKG, in my wildest dream)

I wonder how long HX can squat on the slots.

the day flight to AKL will dramatically increase CX chances of capturing traffic to India.

I know many who stick with SQ just to avoid NZ to HKG

Not NZ
AKL was 10 weekly year round and twice daily for NW

AKL was only 7 weekly (once daily) for the entire year, except for during December, January, and February during which it was double daily.

Absolutely! I think it is amazing that they are finally bringing that flight back because they will be able to capture so much connecting traffic to Asian destinations, especially India, because the flight timing they currently have means that it is impossible to connect straight to a flight headed to India, and one would have to have an overnight stopover in order to do so.

I wonder whether if given the opportunity, CX will do Mel 28 weekly all year, or 21 weekly + 7 weekly (seasonal).

While that would be great, I doubt it. MEL has never had more than 21 weekly AFAIK. Even if CX felt they could fill seats at decent yields I don’t think they have the crew or aircraft atm given other route re-openings across the network. The 350 fleet has to be now operating at or near capacity, the first 777x is at least a year away, the 330neos won’t start arriving until 2028 and the 777ER fleet is on a shrink down to 30 frames. A 350K order soon seems likely but those deliveries would be a while away.

Only annectodal of course but loads have seemed patchy to me when I’ve been on 134/135 lately. Strong in J and PEY but weaker in Y. This is the most recently introduced 3rd daily frequency currently operating 5 days/week. But it hasn’t been peak NS season so likely to pick up I guess.

no
It was 10 weekly even when A340s served the route before the 2018/19 cuts.
and twice daily for summer.

CX has lost a lot of NZ market share to SQ and QR

My wild guess is they are soon going to have no choice but to pick up some second hand.

some 777ws would be great.

CX and London expansion?
 

On the note of CX's European operations, the recent resumptions of FCO and BRU have been widely welcomed, and it is also great to see Cathay venture into new airports that it hasn't served previously (e.g. MUC). As regards to its London flights, general capacity on LON-HKG is now noticeably down when we compare to 2019/2020: VS are no longer servicing HKG, and BA, who were once up to 3 daily on LHR-HKG are now down to a single A351 flight per day. CX are continuing to serve LHR 5 daily, but capacity has been reduced, now with 3 x 77Ws and 2 x A350s, versus 5 daily 77Ws that we saw up until 2019/2020. Flights from what I've heard have been busy, especially going into the summer, and CX are essentially picking up capacity lost by BA's reductions on the route and VS' withdrawal from HKG. I'm wondering, is CX likely to upgauge the London operation to 77W-only as was the case pre-Covid, or try to add additional capacity to London by means of trying to source another slot at LHR or perhaps look to re-open LGW?

I certainly hope they don't go all 77W since 350s are nicer.

But I think the question may be answered by looking back at the history of the route post-Covid. There were moves toward all-77W and rumors about LGW, but they ultimately didn't pan out. It's been busy when I've taken it but I've heard it could lag a bit outside school holiday times and the current configuration is probably optimized to avoid any empty seats that might come about with an expansion.

In other news...

DFW going daily: https://airlinegeeks.com/2025/06/19/...e-u-s-service/

Christchurch seasonal service starting a month earlier to cater to demand: https://www.aci-asiapac.aero/media-c...hts-for-summer