I believe HX restarted Saipan after Covid but then had to withdraw again because of visa issues. Saipan, which part of a US territory, was offering itself as visa free to Chinese citizens but their preapproval system seems to have broken down. Suspect political reasons. Anyway, Guam is probably going to be a nonstarter for similar reasons.

HX already flies to Male; apparently the loads aren't great. HK people don't seem interested in going anywhere but the mainland and Japan anymore.

UO says Korea is the new Japan though?

Though a bit off topic, further HX news, they are ending 3 Japan routes soon, including NGO. They have been cancelling/ reducing a lot of routes lately. Yet they want to launch MEL and URC.

Perhaps that Japan earthquake is getting dangerous, or HX really is gonna severely downsize.

It is indeed not surprising as HX has been returning their 333 airframes back to lessor, while trying to expand long haul network. Some regional lower-yield routes would have to give way anyway.

Those route are operated by 320, nothing to do with 333.
How can they manage YVR SYD MEL with 5 333?

Whats the other two? I googled and didn't find anything on this.

Kagoshima and Kumamoto, both from early July

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250610-hxjul25jp

KMJ and KOJ. I guess UO may be interested in taking over KOJ, if not both.

UO is launching daily SZB (Kuala Lumpur - Subang airport) from 1 August.

not to mention a lot of regional frequencies use A330 currently. so all of the 5 hours or less routes would all be A320, making HX as low cost as HB and even UO in these routes.

I have always found it uh ... interesting ... that UO/HX/HB never fly to the same Japanese villages.

For Kumamoto, Tokushima and Yonago, their local government subsidises one HKG airline. That's why UO's Kumamoto flight is cancelled after Kumamoto's rebuild. (being cancelled due to volcano eruption, then COVID, and the government started subsidising HX)

I am wondering if Kumamoto's government will resubsidise UO as HX pulls the plug

That makes sense. I did see Tourism Office posters around town promoting the HKG and CJU (or some other place in Korea) flights when I was in Tokushima last month.

I guess Hakodate is probably in the same subsidy bucket. Surprised UO or HB hasn't jumped on that at least for the winter season since HX dropped it after only one season but there was some mention here I think that Sendai is as far as UO will go because of crewing.

Also surprised Kumamoto needs subsidies. I wonder why they chose to subsidize HX over UO.

Do you know if HX on Kagoshima was subsidized? Thats another port UO used to fly together with Nagasaki. Maybe HX will pick Kagoshima up too.

I think they have cut 330s to Japan a lot. I've had two flights dropped from 330 to 320 so far this summer. Not exactly thrilled given the only reason I pick them is for the 330 J. The August days I took a look at last night didn't even have any 330 to NRT and some days only one flight with 320 J, rest were Y monoclass 320s or 321s. Basically turning into HB. A bit dire...

Also, the markets are small. Once one airline is there, the planners at the other airlines will look at the route/ market size, and decide there is no opportunity to add seats. Nothing nefarious. Same as (say ) HKG-Surabaya. Even Garuda doesn't bother adding a flight t compete with CX.

Except (setting aside subsidies), CX/UO can easily boot HB and probably HX out of a village if they wanted to. You're assuming that airlines don't actually want to compete.