To clarify:

C = instrument upgrades from Y to J/domestic F (SWU, miles+copay, BXP1, BXP3) on all flights (visible on EF)
R = 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades from Y to J/domestic F in eligible markets (not visible on EF); AND revenue J fare bucket on long-haul international flights, i.e. those not eligible for 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades (the former not visible on EF)
X = former 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades from Y to domestic F when domestic F was sold in the GDS as F, now rarely used except maybe 3-cabin J to F op-ups?

C does not necessarily have any relationship with R. Inside the window, I've cleared the EXP complimentary upgrade (into R) on flights showing C0. I've also bought flights inside the window, failed to clear the EXP upgrade over several hours (implying R0), and applied an instrument as the flight was showing C>0.

Wow. That route (and specifically the flight with the 789) always seems one of the hardest in the whole system to upgrade. Wild.

Also the 788's on the ORD-DFW and vice versa routes. I'm always in the teens on that list of 50+ passengers.

Lax-dfw 789
 

I made a reservation in July for travel last week that included the LAX-DFW 789. I guessed it would be difficult to get a complimentary upgrade (I'm EXP with $20K or so of annual spending) so I applied a Business Extra regional upgrade. I had an EF alert for C space on the flight, but this apparently never happened. Nevertheless, it looked pretty good -- J7 C0 from July all the way until three or four days before the flight. Then it was J6 C0, J4 C0, and finally J1 C0. When the upgrade list finally opened a few hours before flight time I saw that I was 8th on the list. One passenger was upgraded after boarding.

I rarely fly this route. On my usual domestic routes -- of which the most crowded seems to be DFW-DCA -- I have been getting complimentary upgrades about 80% of the time, albeit usually within 24 hours of flight time. Even when I don't get upgraded I am usually one of the first three names on the list. Unfortunately none of those flights are on 789s.

I was surprised to be so far down on the list this time, given that I was using an "instrument" and not relying on a complimentary upgrade. The wiki on this thread seems to indicate that I would have been ahead of other EXPs who were not using instruments. But I recall hearing that during the last 24 hours before the flight everyone basically gets put on the same list and the order becomes status + EQD, no preference for people using instruments. Is this true, or is it more likely that there were 7 people ahead of me who were using SWUs, miles, or Business Extra to upgrade?

SWU/Miles+CoPay is always ahead of complimentary now, even on airport upgrade list down until T-0.

What likely happened is that there were 7 people ahead of you also with instrument upgrades. The DFW-LAX 789 flight is timed well now I think that people can select it for returns on many of the international flights returning in to DFW, so those people may have had an upgrade clear in their international segment and ended up actually waitlisted for the domestic portion...

At least I was in this situation recently too, and my upgrade also did not clear.

:confused:

2609 to Vegas today. #6 out of 32 for 1 seat.

Regarding this earlier post I made-with the increasing potential of really bad weather in NC this weekend (and all the cancellations that will ensue) what are the chances of a claw back? Points/funds have been deducted/charged. Thanks for any insight.

With cash + points and SWUs, AA will generally try to rebook you in the upgraded cabin, if possible. That said, sometimes you might be willing to take a downgrade to get out on an earlier flight. In that case, AA technically doesn't owe you anything, but you might be able to negotiate a refund of the miles and copay.

What exactly do you mean by "claw back?"

Didn't even clear CUN-JFK as EXP. What is the point if top tier status if you don't even clear upgrades on leisure routes during low season. I think i'm done with this next year.

EDIT

Spoke too soon, cleared.

When did you fly? I'd argue Thanksgiving to Christmas is high season for CUN, particularly in the front end of the plane which would be filled with families (as opposed to college students filling the back over spring break).

This particular flight seems to be one of the toughest domestic upgrades to clear. It's actually likely that there were one or more CKs ahead of you on the list. Remember, a CK on any type of ticket (even an award ticket) will trump an EXP on the upgrade list. Status is the first tiebreaker. Then, within the group of EXPs on the list, instrument upgrades provide priority over regular complimentary upgrade requests, and both of these are prioritized over award ticket upgrade requests.

Given how low you were on the list, though, I would still question whether you were properly listed as an instrument upgrade. I would've checked with an airport agent to see how you were listed on the PALL list (e.g. SWU would be VIP2, miles/copay would be MLG2, and a regular comp upgrade would be UPG2). The instrument upgrade request should carry over to the airport list -- in other words, not everyone is the same within the final 24 hours as you suggested you'd heard somewhere.

Somewhat OT, but IMO, these days, if upgrades are important to you and drive your decision to maintain elite status, you have to select routes/times very carefully to avoid disappointment. It really shouldn't be a shock that a widebody DFW-LAX flight might not clear even with an instrument. I've found that buying a mix of paid J/F on routes like this, combined with buying a coach ticket and getting EXP comp upgrades for less competitive routes/times still keeps me up front virtually 100% of the time. It's nice not sweating out upgrades on the more competitive flights. The better IROPS handling (protected in J) and double EQMs take the sting out of the extra cost also.