Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
 

Technically 2018 - but we don't have a thread for that yet.

Cleared SWU Y-->J ORD-NRT at booking today (along with the connecting domestic leg) for a Monday flight in late January.

I am 2/2 so far on Y-->J SWUs clearing at booking for 2018 flights - both in January. ^

Received a pleasant surprise 48 hours out that I was upgraded on tomorrow morning LGA DFW flight. Rare. In fact, all four of my segments were upgraded this trip.

I cleared AUA-CLT-IAH at T100 yesterday.

Also was on a mileage ticket. 15k Milesaver saved me 550 USD. :)

I've never flown internationally before, but someone was kind enough to gift me an SWU.
Outbound PHL to FCO is basically full up front, but it's been applied for the return trip.
Anyone have any insight? FCO to PHL on 1/22, AA 719
There are other segments but they're domestic and I don't care so much about those. Plus my layovers are all in airports with Centurion Lounges so I can relax there.
Thanks!

FCO-PHL is J7 R6 D4 I2 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7 with 8 of the 20 J seats open

EF shows J7 R6 D4 I2 and 8 open seats with 1 blocked out of 20 J seats. Not very familiar with the route but doesn't look too full yet. Unfortunately as a non-status passenger you'll be behind all other elites using SWUs and Miles + Copays but hopefully you get good luck and it clears

The other segments, if on AA, are also eligible for upgrade on the same SWU if F (J) is offered on the flight (as in won't cost you additional SWUs).

Ah yes, I was aware of this. I am just unconcerned if they actually upgrade or not. Thanks for making sure I knew though!

No problem! Good luck with the upgrade(s).

I apologize for posting here (I could've sworn I saw a thread for upgrade chances clearing or something like that) but I don't think this is a considered an SWU?
Is there a way to check/find what chance you may have of clearing an upgrade (Gold, bottom of the barrel) with a 500-mile upgrade (the flight segments are all over 500 miles, so no complimentary upgrades).

It would be 1/17/18 Flight #'s:
1920 (ALB-CLT)
455 (CLT-DFW)
and
3287 (DFW-GJT)

If I've asked in the wrong forum, I apologize (just point me in the right direction). I'm not savvy with ExpertFlyer so I don't know what fare buckets correspond to what.
Thanks!

I'm not familiar with actual chances, but I'll give you the research and what little I know of it.
1/17 is a Wednesday, so it shouldn't be all that busy with business travelers who tend to clump at the beginning and end of weekdays.
ALB-CLT 8:00AM J4 D3 I2 Y7 with 4 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
CLT-DFW 11:45AM J7 D7 I4 Y7 with 8 of 16 seats still open on seating chart
DFW-GJT 2:40PM J7 D7 I7 Y7 with 11 of 12 seats still open on seating chart
From other posts I've read on here, I is one of most important indicators, because those are how many seats they are actively TRYING to sell.
Only 4 seats left on the first flight so I'd have a hard time chiming in there. Uneducated guess is that your CLT-DFW looks best. DFW is a hard upgrade because it's so busy but lots of open seats and I7.

Thanks! (I'm really hoping for the last leg because it's a CRJ--LOL)

But we'll see what happens. There are truly worse things in life than flying in coach, even on a 2.5 hour or thereabout CRJ ride (ugh). A few drinks and I could probably sleep. haha

Family of 3 all cleared AA 176 NRT-DFW for flight on 1/2/18 within a week before flight. 1 cleared on 12/28 and rest of cleared the next day

AA 176 went MX and canceled so we were all ultimately rerouted through LAX. Original rebooked flights were in economy through ORD and so I called in to the EP line to give them my 2 cents.
SWU Upgrades were preserved and honored onto the new rebooked flights through LAX. At gate in HND, a few seats in J and premium economy were still available.

Funny thing is, a lot of non-elites were openly talking about seeing how they can get an operational upgrade but were told $300 to either J or premium economy for the upgrade upcharge.

Having said that, I did not see any of those people talking about "scoring a 2k upgrade for free" in the J cabin....

Can anybody share about their experience with SWU's clearing for AA27/26 LAX/HND. I'm booked leaving 4/26 with return on 4/30. Expert Flyer shows 0 C award space as of today but I've set alerts.

I had the return (HND-LAX) back in October. It was J2 and C0 with three seats open on the seat map. I set a C alert too and ~30 hours before flight time the EF alert (C1) came through - I immediately contacted AA on twitter and secured the upgrade within 10 minutes. Not sure if I jumped the queue as a result, because only 2 people cleared at the gate and the list had 7-8 people on it. So keep an eye out on the C space.

for you cabins look fairly empty so far (both J7+) so good luck!

I think it might be a little harder going forward now because the plane is changed to a 789 instead of the 772. Its down to 30 J seats from 37 in the 772.

I did LGA / DFW in September / October and was 3/4 for upgrades. I really thought it was a popular route but apparently not and I've cleared 100 hours for one of the flights. I am flying this route later in the year and fairly confident it will be upgraded. For me the hardest upgrades are JFK - SFO and I just booked a ticket yesterday for a trip in 2 weeks.

That's a good point, I had the 772

I love flying in Jan.....both my UPG's on LGA-ORD-LGA cleared at the window recently for my work trip. I'll be having the "beef filet" tomorrow night back to NYC. It has been hard to get ORD-LGA to clear anything but at the gate during Q3/Q4 in 2017.

What's the "easiest" route for J upgrade to LHR?
 

Hi all, I'll be traveling to London in October and have my choice of almost every hub to connect through (LAX, PHX, ORD, DFW, CLT). In your experience, what is my best choice for the easiest, or most likely, SWU upgrade to biz?

There are so many factors that go into predicting chances of clearing that it's hard to say definitively that one hub is better than others. That being said, I would probably generally pick ORD or JFK.

DFW has too many EXPs. PHL and CLT probably have a lot of EXPs, too, and the A330 only has 20 or 28 business class seats. LAX could be tough because it's a relatively longer flight, although the 77W does have more J seats, so that might be a close third in my book.

However, it's hard to say anything categorically here, so take what I've said with a grain of salt.

Thanks. Coming from PDX, so can't do JFK without making another stop, which isn't worth it. Appreciate the help :)

I'd go LAX. And if you can wiggle your dates, try a Tuesday or Wednesday.

Plus you get the longer flight, which makes it better to sleep. JFK-LHR is short enough that I'm still tired no matter whether in Y or J or F.

Really don't like Northeast US-LHR.....too short and no matter what cabin I'm in I still feel like crap the following day.

yes, we'll be going wed > wed. I also prefer the long LAX > LHR flights! More time in the bigger seat is always appreciated.

Agreed, which is why, generally speaking, I would say JFK-LHR is an easier upgrade than LAX-LHR. If we are talking about the best upgrade, of course LAX-LHR is more worth it. A Wednesday departure, however, might increase odds of a LAX-LHR clearing.

Since OP is not traveling until October (10 months away), and since there is no longer a benefit (at least in terms of upgrade chances) to book and request upgrades early, maybe OP should wait to book, unless the price is especially attractive at the moment. OP can between now and then monitor availability and book whichever route has C space open up. The chance of clearing an upgrade then becomes 100%.

I recently started a EF subscription and have a question for the mob. For intra-US flights, does one need to also wait for C space to be available to book into next class be it F/J on two class aircraft? Is there a forum/thread for EF DIY learning?
Thanks in advance.

This is probably your best bet. https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/trav...sk-thread.html

When you say for intra-US flights.... are you looking to use a SWU/miles-copay? If so, yes, it is C for Y to J and A from J to F. About a year ago, AA standardized their fare buckets.. so while it is called FIRST domestically, and BUSINESS internationally (for 2 class flights), they both use J for full fare, C for upgrade and U for milesaver awards.

Thank you... As I navigate through EF and make my way, this info helps. I have two separate trips that are nearly back-to-back (Intl then US-Dom). Thus, if the 2 SWU applied for the Intl legs do not clear, I plan to switch to the US-Dom flights accordingly. Tricky part is I return from Intl inbound leg approx. 2 days before departing on domestic outbound leg. Plan is to switch SWU's to the domestic trips as needed.

Thanks again for your info.

Upgraded last night on AA 204 (PHL => AMS (AA 1985) & PHX => PHL at the gate. No meal choices, but happy to be up front!

Would be helpful in explaining HOW you were upgraded? Miles+Co-Pay, Operational upgrade, Elite upgrade?

SWU cleared today LAX-HKG for flight in two days. SWU for returning flight, HKG-LAX that departs in 8 days, cleared two days ago.

Wow... That's some advance clearing window indeed for the returning flight.

JFK-LAX on a Tuesday late morning cleared about T-48h (UDU)
LAX-LHR on a Tuesday evening cleared about T-5d (SWU)

LAX-SFO on a Monday evening cleared T-6d (complimentary)

So DFW-GJT cleared at T-24. Other two are on standby list (still shows 1 open for ALB-CLT and CLT-DFW). But not holding much hope for either. But that's OK. I'll be glad if I even get out tomorrow due to possible snow issues.

I am a new EXP ( just made EXP Oct 2017). As a result, I was not aware of all of the tricks of redeeming SWU's. I booked an open jaw trip DFW-HKG and NRT-DFW to correspond to dates of a cruise in March. I requested SWU's for myself and spouse(also EXP Oct 2017). The DFW-HKG is on AA125 on 03/17/18 (Saturday departure)--since learned that is a difficult SWU. Been on the Upgrade list for months, still C0. The good news is that the NRT-DFW leg cleared in December. After this experience, I look for flights with C or A availability so the SWU's can clear at booking. I know that this is not always feasible for many trips.

I am still hoping that the AA125 SWU will clear, however, I know that DFW has a lot of AA EXP's.^

I like your route choice!