A few data points (LAX-HKG, HKG-LAX, IAD-LAX)
 

A few data points on Systemwide Upgrades/500 Mile Upgrades that cleared in the last week. I have to say, in each case (despite being on the wait list as an Executive Platinum), "C" inventory opened up but the upgrades did not automatically clear from the waitlist. I had to call AA to manually process the upgrades, which makes me concerned that non-status members can jump to claim "C" space regardless of their position in the waitlist for a SWU or mileage redemption. At any rate, all segments cleared by proactively monitoring availability:

LAX-HKG AA193 (4 "C" spaces opened 36 hours prior to departure, with J7+ available for purchase and seat map of approx. 18 seats open) - SWU for myself + non-status companion cleared upon calling AA

HKG-LAX AA192 (4 "C" spaces opened exactly 1 week prior to departure, with J7+ available for purchase and seat map of approx. 20 seats open) - SWU for myself + non-status companion cleared upon calling AA

IAD-LAX AA1339 (1 "C" space opened 5 days prior to departure, with J7+ available for purchase) - SWU for non-status companion cleared upon calling AA

IAD-LAX AA1339 (complimentary 500 mile upgrade cleared exactly 100 hours from departure, with J5 available for purchase)

that is very concerning. So if a non status passenger has EF and their C alert goes off what is preventing them from calling and having it processed with miles? I don't think your SWU statement is applicable however because a non status passenger wouldn't have one in the first place (?).

It's speculative that this could or would happen, but it is not supposed to.

However, I had a C alert EF email on 13 Oct for my waitlisted SWU on the 14th from LHR-DFW. I got the email about 2 hours after EF sent it. At that point, I called AA to see if I had cleared and they said I had not, and the C space was gone.

Maybe that was just a phantom C-alert from EF, or a glitch in the system. Who knows. I did end up getting the SWU cleared, however, about 8 hours later.

I suppose that it is possible the agent verified my position on the upgrade list before manually processing it, but I do know that the "C" space showed on AA.com/ExpertFlyer for over an hour before I had the opportunity to call in. If they do not verify though, a non-status member could grab open "C" space while others are sitting on wait list.

To your question, I believe that non-status member could be using a SWU or a miles upgrade since SWU's can be gifted/applied to other reservations. In fact, for my IAD-LAX flight, the companion was listed as SWU while I waited for the complimentary 100-hour upgrade (he did not inherit status for SWU to clear).

My guess is it was the C space opening up, then AA clearing people off the list into it. I got the EF notice that C opened up on my LAX-AKL, and by the time I looked maybe an hour after alert, I was already upgraded and EF showed C0. And that was a month before the flight (which is tomorrow!)

This has long been the case. I suggest people keep quiet about it. If people have the proper tools available (one doesn't even need expert flyer) and are able to call and clear their upgrades, then so be it. I'm not concerned about non status passengers jumping the queue- how often could that possibly happen? If I'm waiting for a SWU, and it's less than 2 weeks out, you can rest assured I'm watching those flights like a hawk (much to the dismay of my husband when we are trying to enjoy a trip!)

Data Point - just cleared to J on LAX-PVG on 12.27. Nice surprise this far in advance

When did the email come? I think I posted upthead here or elsewhere that EF sometimes does send phantom C alerts, almost always at midnight (local time in departure city) the day before departure (i.e. if your LHR-DFW was on 10/14, the phantom e-mail would've come around 12:01am BST on 10/13). I've been at my computer both times it's happened to me, so if there was any lag between me getting the alert and manually querying EF, it was 2 min at most. Unclear if this is a glitch with EF, the GDS, or elsewhere.

Why would this indicate a glitch, as opposed to AA just opening up some C space and then clearing the list into it?

Hi everyone,

Considering making a change to upcoming trip to potentially improve upgrade chances and wanted to get the group's consensus. Of note: 5 passengers - wife with no status on one PNR will be miles + cash UG, me and 3 daughters will be SWU - I am EXP but have spent nothing on AA this year so will be bottom of EXP tier in terms of priority. Neither option currently showing U or C.

Current:
Saturday, Dec 15. NRT-DFW-MIA
NRT-DFW 176 on 772 J7D0I0, 24 seats open in J
DFW-MIA 2550 on 738 J1D0I0, 1 or 2 seats open in J so that's unlikely

New Option: For $175 a person, I could change to:
Friday, Dec 14. NRT-LAX-MIA
NRT-LAX 170 on 789 J7D7I7, 23 seats open in J
LAX-MIA 1217 on 32B J7D7I7, 11 seats open in J

So, do you think changing to the NRT-LAX-MIA improves upgrade chances enough to pay change fee? Total travel time between the two is similar, and there is upside to leaving Narita at night so kids sleep better and getting in a day earlier.

All in all, seems like a worthwhile change but anything you guys think I'm missing?

New to EXP and this thread, and you've just crushed my hopes for using my new SWU on this route next year!

I would stick with the NRT-DFW that you're currently booked on for now. Put an EF alert on the NRT-LAX. If C5 opens, you could make the change then.

I think a Saturday flight in December should be favorable for you all to upgrade to DFW with that many open J seats left, and AA not selling any "discount" biz fares on that specific flight right now.

Why? I have cleared DFW-HKG and back many times. Fly midweek.

Data point: LAX-PVG PE=>J
 

Currently $455 short on EQD but EQM sits at 120,500.
Past midnight 11/02/2018 (according AA EXP desk) we (2) were cleared from PE to J on LAX-PVG 3 weeks from flight date!

EF alerted me this morning at 8:30am; called AA EXP desk and was told UG cleared already! Up to now, I have not received any email from AA re UG. I was able to select seats and book meals!