Absolutely. For example, I've had several SFO trips this year. Upgrades tend not to clear, so I've paid for J on these flights. If I spot an SFO-DFW connection on a 787 or SFO-PHL on the A330, I'll almost always take that over a B737 or A321, unless the times are really inconvenient.

Good luck. When I say I’m in the teens on the upgrade list it’s always for zero seats up front available. Always sold out.

I flew a few LAX-DFW and SFO-JFK on 787s this year, and fearing the competition I waitlisted miles+copay on all of them. I'm about a 17k EQD EXP, so I felt odds were poor for complimentary, and I really valued that lie-flat seat. I got the upgrade every time (and always before airport list), but of course I have no idea whether I'd still have cleared without the instrument.

Anyway, these were the only domestic flights I used miles+copay on...on the narrowbodies I just don't care as much. If other flyers think like me, that could be a significant factor pushing you down the list, and also a factor in it being J0 when the airport list comes up.

Mwahaha! Who wants to follow me into math geekdom? Don't worry, it's just arithmetic (this time).

It suddenly occurred to me that there's a good reason for higher (nominal) list position on bigger planes even if the J/Y ratios are big that doesn't involve pax behavior at all. The simplest way to put it is "bigger planes have longer lists, so your relative position is larger in nominal terms." But let me unpack it a bit:

Plane A has 100 total pax for 90 Y and 10 J seats. 20% of flyers are EXP and you're right in the middle of the pack for EQD.

Plane B has 1000 total pax for 900 Y and 100 J seats. Same % EXP and you're still in the middle.

Your list position on Plane A is 10, and on Plane B it's 100. Of course it means exactly the same thing, and we should say those routes have identical competition...but this isn't something we're thinking about when we say "dang I'm 15th on the list!"

I'll bet if we started thinking of list position as a ratio of position/list-size we'd get a more accurate idea of competition and odds.

Please note my last post doesn't invalidate the one before it at all; I figure those are both factors in this case.

Well, your hypo depends on the % of EXP is constant across both scenarios. Besides more people willing to outright purchase F on lie-flat flights (so fewer seats available for upgrades to begin with), I would suspect that there are more EXPs (and CKs) on those lie-flat flights (and potentially more "high-value" EXPs).

Yeah, absolutely; I said that explicitly in my post yesterday morning. I still believe that, and still believe that miles+copay behavior probably factors in as well. My last point was just that independent of those factors the simple math probably changes the list in ways we don't find intuitive. Or put another way, your position on the list would "feel worse" on the bigger plane even if the ratio of EXP/pax was equal (which we doubt for those other reasons).

Probably more likely the lag between the initiation of the upgrade and completion of the reticketing.

What detail showed you definitively it was a 500 mile upgrade? I suppose since they come from different inventory, it's possible.

Continuing the 789 LAX-DFW discussion, Sunday I was 2 of 41 and no upgrade. I can't get a cell connection on this aircraft so I don't know if #1 cleared.
DFW-IND 738 again cleared at 22h.

One factor on the upgrade % is how many seats are held back "just in case". Is it an absolute # like 1 or 2 or a percentage like 10%?

Hard to provide an accurate general statement, but IME it's usually been an absolute number (1-2 as you suggested) under normal, day-to-day operations. Things like oversold flights and anticipated widespread IRROPS can cause that number to go up, though.

LAX-NRT on 12/12 Expert Flyer shows 11 Seats Available.
What are my odds of the upgrade clearing on this flight. Should I expect a huge upgrade list