Ended up using an SWU for a JFK->LAX this week, as I didn't want to chance higher pre-holiday loads. Cleared ~36 hours in advance.

What is your status? Business is pretty full but still J7, so there's a little bit of room. The good news is that normal paid business travel drops off a cliff from now to the beginning of the year (especially last minute paid J), so depending on your status I'd say chances are ok.

Aa193 lax - hkg
 

Myself and a co-worker are both waitlisted on 193 from LAX to HKG on Christmas. EF currently shows J7 and 14 open seats. We are using BXP3 and are both Plt. Do you think that we have a chance?

Shows J7R7D7 with a dozen open seats on the seat map. I would say you have a very good chance of an upgrade. I'm assuming one of you is Exec Plat?

If someone puts in a SWU for me, is the priority based of their status or my status?

Yours

I am on LAX>HKG. I don't understand - there were 14 seats available as of yesterday. Now I called in and there are only one or two seats. Did folks get upgraded? I booked and requested an SWU yesterday. This is flight AA 193 for December 19 (Today)...EXP with 12k EQD rolling. Any chance?

Well colour me impressed - right at 48 hours out (ok well technically 3 minutes less), I received an email from AA confirming my upgrade using a few 500 certs for MIA-BOS. I'd pretty much given up trying to use 500 mile upgrades especially once the PlatPro level was intro'd and likewise the whole rolling spend - especially considering most times I fly domestic, the upgrade list at the gate seems to be a minimum of 12 or more. Maybe this is a little holiday gift from AA to try to woo me back considering I won't even qualify for Gold at the end of the year and my spend with them has been minuscule this year.

According to Expert Flyer, the biz cabin is zero'd out, as is PE. But in looking at the seatmap, there are 4 unassigned seats in biz and a few in PE.

Not impossible, just improbable. As an EXP with 27k EQDs I'm lucky to get it on the 789 from LAX-DFW 50% of the time.

12/17 LAX-DFW 789 ugraded at 100h. 42 on the upgrade list at the airport.
12/17 DFW-IND 738 upgraded at 23h. 2 on the upgrade list
12/21 IND-DFW 738/DFW-LAX 789 upgraded at 100h

The 789 upgrade at 100 hasn't happened in a while. Maybe because it's Mon-Fri instead of the usual Sun-Thu and less EXPs?

I recently made EXP and I'm trying to figure out how the SWUs work. Is an SWU more or less (or exactly the same) likely to clear as compared to miles + copay? I'm traveling ORD-FCO (via PHL) on either 1/6 or 1/7 (Sun or Mon). I'm hoping to buy a coach ticket and use an SWU to upgrade. I'm assuming that I'll be waitlisted. I have about 19k EQD. Are my chances good to get the upgrade?

I checked expertflyer for you and there is no confirmable upgrade space on either date for PHL-FCO, so you would have to be waitlisted. Also, it shows J7 on 1/6 with 12 seats open on seat map and J4 on 1/7, so you have a better chance on 1/6.