I was almost burned by this recently on CUN-DFW. I was also trying to upgrade with a companion, which didn't help. Flight looked wide open at the time of booking, so we booked cheapo coach seats (like ~$200 RT) and got row 11 on the 32B, which I think is the best spot any couple traveling together in Y if you aren't upgraded... but we were counting on a fairly easy upgrade.

By the day of departure, though, J was down to one seat, and my companion didn't want to split, so I resigned myself to sitting in Y (we ended up being #1 and 2 on the airport list). About 15 minutes before boarding, another couple jumped ahead of us on the list, bumping us to #3 and 4. Somehow, though, there were 5 J seats available last minute, so all of us, plus #5 (who split from #6 -- we overheard all the GA discussion) received battlefield upgrades, but normally I wouldn't have let it get to that point, as I was really expecting to sit in J.

For a subsequent trip to AUA, we bit the bullet and just booked fairly pricey J seats (booked into 'D') to avoid the mess of the airport upgrade list. We literally got the last two J seats on the A319 AUA-PHL on the way back, and this was way before the elite upgrade window opened. Bottom line... even leisure routes can be tough for upgrades, and some totally sell out, with no upgrades being cleared. This seems to happen particularly on certain days/times and around certain holidays, but it can be tough to predict.

It seems that more passengers are simply paying to sit up front.

Will they put my husband back into Y (where he had a very good seat before his upgrade) in an effort to accommodate passengers who have to be rebooked due to the coming storm? The exact forecast is a moving target but it is going to be a big mess.

I'm #1 on the list for 1 seat back to DFW. I'm not holding my breath and will grab a sandwich beforehand.

Never mind. I was ousted out of 1st into 2nd. Quizno's here I come!

ETA I moved up to 1 and was upgraded at the boarding announcement. Unfortunately I already ate lunch.

Absolutely not. He's confirmed in business now.

Thank you! I thought that might be the case but we just started using his miles for upgrades. I'm learning all the ins and outs. This thread and FT have been great to learn!

Flight is coming up on the 9th, cleared though...app just hadn't updated. I am going by what the hotel said, they said "high season" starts around Dec. 18.

High season in hotel talk is when THEY start charging more. Not necessarily true high season.

I am flying PHX to SFO at 9:35PM Friday night and not only does EF show J7 but the back of the plane is only 20% full but my upgrade just cleared T-25. Why not at T-100, beats me!

I don't understand why that is. Mathematically the ratio of F/J to Y seats is one of the better ones in the fleet. Do more people buying F target that plane to get the better seat, even on a route like DFW-ORD? I know a hub-to-hub route like that can be elite heavy but that would presumably affect all planes equally. I have two flights booked in Feb on the 788 between DFW and ORD, so I hope you're wrong. The J cabin is showing mostly empty now, but I know that doesn't mean much.

I just think a lot of frequent travelers go between ORD and DFW (whether as destinations or connections).

Just booked my wife a LHR-LAX trip for late January and there is some great SWU availability right now. Her LHR-DFW 1/24 was C5 and LHR-LAX 1/30 was C3 I believe. Now both are one less : ) More availability within that week when I was looking as well.

Yesterday JFK-LAX at 330pm - was #6 (EXP - ~29K EQDs) using a BXP1 - 1-5 cleared :/.

Now that is some competition!

AA has been holding these seats back for the last year until just after check in. When I check a couple of days before most are open. Something in the algorithm must be saying to hold on to these because of mechanical, weather, etc. Before they switched out the MD80s, we would have a mechanical at least 1/2 the time.

I would guess a lot of EXPs prefer the 788 simply because it has lie-flat J and the other options on that route don't. Anytime I'm flying domestic and see a widebody that's my strong preference.