pinniped

AA Plat...leisure market...off-peak times. Seems like the odds would be in your favor assuming we are talking about normal mainline aircraft.

bdemaria

You are asking a question that isn't realistically something that anyone on this board can answer w/any certainty. Sure, Wed and Sat are less popular travel days so perhaps this will increase the chance of an upgrade - but maybe not. There are far too many variables at play.

I approach domestic upgrades as a bonus: I always request them and when they clear, great, when they don't - I end up in the class of service I paid for. This has been my strategy for about 15 years now, as a GLD (3 years) PLT (7 years) EXP (5 years). My advice: request them both, and see what happens.

shabster

I'm guessing this is exactly the answer the OP was looking for.

cover point

thanks. thats exactly what i am doing. requested right after booking.

just was curious about the probability from people's experience ... but seems like that has a thread of its own.

thanks for all the responses including the tongue in cheek ones.

brp

In all seriousness, this sort of question gets asked a lot (I mean really a lot), and this is part of the reason for the tongue-in-cheek answers.

As noted, it can't be answered. Even relying on past experiences gives very little value. All that counts is what happens on your flight,and any number of other factors could play into this. Lots of people ask, but there's really no way to predict.

Cheers.

dstan

cover point's thread has now been merged into the consolidated thread on this topic. Some do find responses to such questions valuable, some do not. As such, I suggest the following:

• When you see new threads on this subject, please use the RBP button to request a merge.

• If you have experiences or opinions on a specific route, or comments about general trends, please feel free to post them (as has been done above). There is already a FAQ entry regarding general trends.

• If you have opinions on the effectiveness of such questions and/or responses thereto, you are, of course, more than welcome to post your reasoning as well (as has also been done above).

• If you have nothing substantive to contribute, then let's save the bandwidth

Thanks for your consideration.

/Moderator

wrcraig

Just booked a same-day MR for LAX-JFK-LAX in O class. I know that this is a very EXP-heavy route, and since I'm PLT I typically use miles + copay to guarantee a transcon upgrade, but I can't do that off of an O fare so I'm going to take my chances with stickers. I'm hopeful that by booking the flight for a Saturday (leave LAX @ 8:20 AM and leave JFK @ 7:20 PM) I may avoid the crush of EXPs. I know a few bicoastal entertainment types that will use either the late afternoon or redeye Friday legs to fly to JFK and then return to LAX late Sunday, thereby giving them most of the weekend in NYC - and avoiding travel on Sat, leaving (in theory) most of those seats to leisure-class travellers. Of course this could just be wishful thinking on my part.

zybysky

I'd say its a coin flip. My stickers usually clear first since I connect to LAX from SAN before continuing on to the East coast, and my success was over 50% for these transcons as GLD, and a bit higher for PLT. Nothing that a few sleeping pills couln't fix if you flip wrong, though.

GTITAN

Only one sure way "to know the odds" of an upgrade clearing. The AA FT Board has a secret way of checking these things. Paging HNL. Got another one! See also:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html

All fun aside, LAX-JFK can be tough.

Safe Travels

circusboy

Before I became EXP I had a 100% success rate on LAX-JFK. The odd time it was last minute before it cleared, on one occassion I was seat in Y and they came and got me, but it always did clear. Goodluck.

SanDiegoDallas

And SAN-JFK can be near impossible...

zybysky

If adding 2 hours to the itinerary isn't a big deal, then that's why I always recommend connecting in LAX instead of the straight-shot SAN-JFK flight. At least you have a decent chance of upgrading then.

reubencahn

I've never missed an upgrade on the SAN-JFK route.

zybysky

I actually was going to ask how EXP's tend to fare on this route. Seeing I'll be a newly minted EXP next month, I'll take this post into consideration on future travel plans.

zipadee

So did you clear? Maybe I missed the update. Always helpful to have that data point. I would think you did because I've cleared as a gold but always helpful to know for sure since it mattered so much to you initially