ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: LAX/SNA
Programs: AA Plat, HHonors Diamond, Delta Gold, Hertz #1 FSG
Posts: 66
ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
Did a search didn't see anything. I'm flying a 757 monday at 8 10 am on 2274. AA.com shows coach full with 8/22 available in F. I dont have access to any sites that give me any more info. Anyone out there care to speculate on my chances of getting up front? I started a thread recently about how I've never flown in F, I'm starting to think the SNA ORD is not the best route for me to try for my first upgrade.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MODERATOR'S NOTES
• For general information, see this FAQ entry: • What are the chances that my upgrade will clear?
• For specific information, try using Search this Thread for your relevant airport code(s),nd go do the same to the current thread, Chances of upgrade clearing, upgrade availability discussion (consolidated - 2013 on).
• sica4 has generously started a system for tracking upgrade percentages. Please see Post #751 or click HERE to contribute.
• Please do not ask members to post proprietary information (e.g. ExpertFlyer data) regarding upgrade chances. Subscriptions and free trials for these services are available.
The AA Forum Moderator Team
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MODERATOR'S NOTES
• For general information, see this FAQ entry: • What are the chances that my upgrade will clear?
• For specific information, try using Search this Thread for your relevant airport code(s),nd go do the same to the current thread, Chances of upgrade clearing, upgrade availability discussion (consolidated - 2013 on).
• sica4 has generously started a system for tracking upgrade percentages. Please see Post #751 or click HERE to contribute.
• Please do not ask members to post proprietary information (e.g. ExpertFlyer data) regarding upgrade chances. Subscriptions and free trials for these services are available.
The AA Forum Moderator Team
Last edited by JDiver; Feb 12, 2013 at 9:06 pm Reason: edited to refer to new 2013 and on thread
#2
Join Date: Mar 2007
Programs: AA 1MM
Posts: 3,182
The bad news: coach being full suggests there are a lot of elites (exit rows full)
The good news: not much (any?) connecting traffic to contend with
The good news: not much (any?) connecting traffic to contend with
#3
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 3,049
Why not sign up for a trial on ExpertFlyer, it is free and well worth paying for once the trial is over.
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: SJC/VCE
Programs: AA PLT (2.9+ MM), HH GLD, Hyatt Diamond, SPG PLT
Posts: 10,161
Did a search didn't see anything. I'm flying a 757 monday at 8 10 am on 2274. AA.com shows coach full with 8/22 available in F. I dont have access to any sites that give me any more info. Anyone out there care to speculate on my chances of getting up front? I started a thread recently about how I've never flown in F, I'm starting to think the SNA ORD is not the best route for me to try for my first upgrade.
#1- the site that will give you the best idea of fare buckets, availability, etc... for AA is expertflyer.com. It is a subscription service, if you are going to be flying a lot, it is well worth the minimal investment. W/time and a bit of study, you can learn about the patterns, etc. of upgrades and book flights on which you may have better odds (FYI: Monday am is not one of them).
#2 - The F seating chart is not a reliable indicator of availability; however a very full Y cabin means that the F seats will be held until very close to flight time. On a 757, if row 9, 10, 17 & 18 are occupied, that means 22 elites - many of whom have likely requested a sticker upgrade.
#3 - Numerous FT threads indicate that SNA is EXP heavy location.
#5
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP (2MM), HHonors Diamond
Posts: 443
SNA_ORD on a Monday morning? Unfortunately I'd say your chances are slim to none. As others have said, with a full coach cabin (especially exit rows) you are probably battling many other elites for those F class seats. Last Monday morning I flew DFW-PHL and was amazed at how many jumped up when they called for EXPLAT/PLAT/AIRPASS boarding, at least 35-40 people. No wonder I didn't score an upgrade!
#6
Join Date: Nov 2006
Programs: AA EXP, 1 MM, AC, HH Diamond, Marriott Silver, Hertz 5*
Posts: 4,010
Only HNL knows for sure.
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,535
#8
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: LAX/SNA
Programs: AA Plat, HHonors Diamond, Delta Gold, Hertz #1 FSG
Posts: 66
ok brp. let me know how to delete the thread.
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: NYC, USA
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, Lifetime Platinum, Marriott Titanium, HH Gold
Posts: 10,968
Ask HNL to consult his patent-pending Up-Check™ system.
#11
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: TPE, MNL
Programs: AA lifetime GOLD, but still an AA Baby compare to people here. CX nobody. BR Silver.
Posts: 984
I guess EXP has 60% chance. PLT has 0%
#12
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 10,949
The Official Patent Pending Up-Check™ calculation for that flight as a Plat is 0.23%.
#13
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2004
Location: DFW/DAL
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, AS MVPG, HH Diamond, NCL Platinum Plus, MSC Diamond
Posts: 21,422
Did a search didn't see anything. I'm flying a 757 monday at 8 10 am on 2274. AA.com shows coach full with 8/22 available in F. I dont have access to any sites that give me any more info. Anyone out there care to speculate on my chances of getting up front? I started a thread recently about how I've never flown in F, I'm starting to think the SNA ORD is not the best route for me to try for my first upgrade.
FWIW, it is showing 0 avail in all fare categories. I put the odds of ugrade at about 0 for PLT, and nowhere near 60 percent for EXP
#14
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: GSP
Posts: 175
SNA_ORD on a Monday morning? Unfortunately I'd say your chances are slim to none. As others have said, with a full coach cabin (especially exit rows) you are probably battling many other elites for those F class seats. Last Monday morning I flew DFW-PHL and was amazed at how many jumped up when they called for EXPLAT/PLAT/AIRPASS boarding, at least 35-40 people. No wonder I didn't score an upgrade!
#15
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: CA; Husband AA Lifetime Plat/7 MM; HH Lifetime Diamond
Posts: 188
If you're Platinum, flying on a traditional business-travel day (Monday), into or out of SNA... I think your chances are pretty slim. A lot of empty first-class seats is a good sign, but may not represent the actual number of open seats. I've seen empty seats on the web site, when at the same time the folks in the SNA Admiral's Club tell my husband that first class is booked full.
My husband flies to/from SNA 2-3 weeks a month, and has been doing so for a couple of years. He is EXP, and books his tickets several months in advance... which puts him right at the front of the upgrade list almost every time. Despite that, he only gets the upgrade on the leg to/from SNA about half of the time. It's a really tough destination for upgrades. Lots of people with too much money fly to/from SNA (first class is often sold out and NO upgrades are given, period), and lots of high-status fliers use the airport as well (so even when a few upgrades are available, there is a lot of competition for very few spots).
The agents in SNA tell him that they have more EXPs flying from there than any other airport. (That seems off to me; maybe they mean more than any other non-hub, or a larger percentage of travelers.) On one of his flights, they told him they had 30 EXPs on the plane, but that was probably an unusual number, for them to mention it. He's seen flights which have a waiting list of more than 20 names for upgrades.
I would say: don't expect a PLT upgrade to/from SNA, even with a lot of empty first-class seats. If you do get it, you'll be pleasantly surprised, but I don't think the odds are good at all.
My husband flies to/from SNA 2-3 weeks a month, and has been doing so for a couple of years. He is EXP, and books his tickets several months in advance... which puts him right at the front of the upgrade list almost every time. Despite that, he only gets the upgrade on the leg to/from SNA about half of the time. It's a really tough destination for upgrades. Lots of people with too much money fly to/from SNA (first class is often sold out and NO upgrades are given, period), and lots of high-status fliers use the airport as well (so even when a few upgrades are available, there is a lot of competition for very few spots).
The agents in SNA tell him that they have more EXPs flying from there than any other airport. (That seems off to me; maybe they mean more than any other non-hub, or a larger percentage of travelers.) On one of his flights, they told him they had 30 EXPs on the plane, but that was probably an unusual number, for them to mention it. He's seen flights which have a waiting list of more than 20 names for upgrades.
I would say: don't expect a PLT upgrade to/from SNA, even with a lot of empty first-class seats. If you do get it, you'll be pleasantly surprised, but I don't think the odds are good at all.