ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
Jan 8, 2009, 1:34 am
#76
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: STL
Programs: AA 2MM, AS MVP Gold, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 12,966
Don't know where you got that idea. Not here, for sure. But it's totally wrong. EXP soft lands to Plat.
Jan 8, 2009, 4:02 am
#77
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Duluth, GA
Programs: AAdvantage PLT, AA 2MM, Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,268
the economy going soft probably didn't diminish the number of folks qualifying for EXP
it's likely there has been an increase in EXP's due to AADER (me being one of them ^^)
I can see your point that as a PLT having fewer EXP's around overall might give you a better chance at upgrading, but only on average. certain routes are EXP-heavy (my fav: AUS-SJC) and the odds won't go up much for these.
it's likely there has been an increase in EXP's due to AADER (me being one of them ^^)
I can see your point that as a PLT having fewer EXP's around overall might give you a better chance at upgrading, but only on average. certain routes are EXP-heavy (my fav: AUS-SJC) and the odds won't go up much for these.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
(The Gambler, Don Schlitz)
Jan 8, 2009, 6:06 am
#78
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: London UK
Programs: BAEC Silver, IHG Diamond Ambassador
Posts: 2,044
One would assume that AA could provide you with such commercially-sensitive figures. Try emailing AAdvantage Customer Service. Failing that, there is much speculation on FT and a quick search will provide you with a range of "guesstimates"!!
Jan 8, 2009, 6:23 am
#79
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP 1.5MM, AC Member, Marriott Platinum, HHonors Diamond, Emerald Club Executive
Posts: 513
I really doubt that the number of EXPs will drop that much after February. As well as new EXPs minted via AADER, there are new EXPs such as myself who did not need AADER to get there. Couple this with the fact that I would imagine most EXPs tend to hang on like grim death to their status if at all possible (I know I will now that I've tasted it), and you'll rapidly come to the conclusion that your chances of upgrading as a Platinum are about the same as they ever were.
IMHO the only way to increase your chances as a Platinum, is to fly another 50k miles and get to be EXP yourself
IMHO the only way to increase your chances as a Platinum, is to fly another 50k miles and get to be EXP yourself
Jan 8, 2009, 6:25 am
#80
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: 6E Westbound, 4E Eastbound
Programs: AA EXP & 3MM, Priority Club Plat since 1984
Posts: 6,293
My guess is that there is an unusual number of EXPs right now, and that will affect availability until the end of next membership year.
In other words, with all the new AADER EXPs, fewer PLTs will get upgrades (since many of them are now EXP).
In other words, with all the new AADER EXPs, fewer PLTs will get upgrades (since many of them are now EXP).
Jan 8, 2009, 6:44 am
#81
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EP 3MM, UA Silver, Bonvoy LT TIT, Hyatt Explorist, HH Silver, Caesars PLT
Posts: 7,259
While many are throwing out their guestimate that there are so many extra EXPs (and other elites) due to AADER, I will throw out that I think the number of extra elites from AADER is so small that it is statistically insignificant when it comes to upgrades and the such.
Jan 8, 2009, 6:49 am
#82
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 3,049
Doesn't really matter how people got there, the one thing that is certain is that there are more EXPs in the system between Jan 1st and Feb 28th than will be there on March 1st.
Then the numbers climb slowly back up as new EXPs qualify during the year.
But as mentioned it makes little difference to a Plat as all those dropping out of EXP go straight into Plat so the competition doesn't go away just gets a shade easier if you book well in advance. I'd doubt it is enough to notice though.
Then the numbers climb slowly back up as new EXPs qualify during the year.
But as mentioned it makes little difference to a Plat as all those dropping out of EXP go straight into Plat so the competition doesn't go away just gets a shade easier if you book well in advance. I'd doubt it is enough to notice though.
Jan 8, 2009, 7:08 am
#83
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: New York, NY, USA
Programs: BAGold; AA3MMPlat; UA1MMGold; FBGold; MarriottAmb; AccorPlat; HHGold; ICPlatAmb; HyattDiscoverist
Posts: 4,378
I think it's an interesting question, but I'd guess in most cases there'd be no discernible impact on one's upgrade chances, which I believe are more dependent on route and time/day of travel. In my own two years' experience as a Plat, I did not note any difference between my UG success in the first two months of the year and the remainder.
Jan 8, 2009, 9:23 am
#84
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,535
AADER will have no effect on the number of EXPs or EXP-related upgrades. The economy well could, but we're more likely to see those effects this qualifying year than last, I would think.
Cheers.
Jan 8, 2009, 10:29 am
#85
Join Date: May 2007
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors-Diamond, Marriott-Silver, SPG-Gold
Posts: 391
I'd have to agree with the AADER comments. I have three co-workers that knew nothing of the program until I clued them in. Luckily none of them made EXP
It would also depend on how many PLTs and EXPs actually request the upgrades. My company's travel agent no matter how many times I ask her to never puts me on the upgrade queue. I have to remember to go in and do it.
It would also depend on how many PLTs and EXPs actually request the upgrades. My company's travel agent no matter how many times I ask her to never puts me on the upgrade queue. I have to remember to go in and do it.
Jan 8, 2009, 12:07 pm
#86
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: LOS Angeles
Programs: UA 1K, AA PLT, BA Gold
Posts: 350
I would think we would have already seen the affects of more EXPs wouldnt you during the late fall we most members new what they were going to be
Jan 8, 2009, 12:10 pm
#87
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: LOS Angeles
Programs: UA 1K, AA PLT, BA Gold
Posts: 350
The amount of new EXPs as a result of the AADER promotion is likely very, very small with reagrd to the total number of EXPs. Here on FT? Surely a good percentage. In the real world? Not so much. Real people don't make a whole bunch of plans just to take advantage of a bonus for a few months to make EXP; we do. I talked with several otherwise AAdvantage savvy people whomhad not heard of this.
AADER will have no effect on the number of EXPs or EXP-related upgrades. The economy well could, but we're more likely to see those effects this qualifying year than last, I would think.
Cheers.
AADER will have no effect on the number of EXPs or EXP-related upgrades. The economy well could, but we're more likely to see those effects this qualifying year than last, I would think.
Cheers.
Jan 13, 2009, 5:51 pm
#88
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DFW
Programs: 1MM, AAPLT, Hyatt GP
Posts: 29
Sticker upgrade chances 757 Vs. MD80
I'll be travelling DFW-Bos and return several times in the next few months, and I'm wondering which a/c generally gives better success at sticker upgrades.
I keep going back and forth on...757 more F seats, so more chances. Or, freq. biz travellers would prefer to ride on 757, so they take all the upgrades (and rightfully so, IMO) I'm 1MM and PLT this year on a challenge, and have 24 stickers in my account, so I'm good for upgrading 3 flights already. Plus ones I'll earn for EQM.
I'm not too particular on flight times, except depart earlier rather than later, return later rather than earlier. Flights would bracket around long weekends, ie., Thurs-Sun, etc. Any thoughts?
I keep going back and forth on...757 more F seats, so more chances. Or, freq. biz travellers would prefer to ride on 757, so they take all the upgrades (and rightfully so, IMO) I'm 1MM and PLT this year on a challenge, and have 24 stickers in my account, so I'm good for upgrading 3 flights already. Plus ones I'll earn for EQM.
I'm not too particular on flight times, except depart earlier rather than later, return later rather than earlier. Flights would bracket around long weekends, ie., Thurs-Sun, etc. Any thoughts?
Jan 13, 2009, 6:36 pm
#89
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: DSM
Programs: AA Platinum, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum, Fairmont Platinum, United Silver, National Exec
Posts: 1,035
I think it comes down to the time of day. As a Plat I've found mid-day/mid-week flights easier to upgrade. YMMV.
Jan 13, 2009, 6:54 pm
#90
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: YYZ
Programs: Earned: AC SE, AA PLT - Comped: DL PLT, Avis PC, Hertz Platinum
Posts: 781
I'll be travelling DFW-Bos and return several times in the next few months, and I'm wondering which a/c generally gives better success at sticker upgrades.
I keep going back and forth on...757 more F seats, so more chances. Or, freq. biz travellers would prefer to ride on 757, so they take all the upgrades (and rightfully so, IMO) I'm 1MM and PLT this year on a challenge, and have 24 stickers in my account, so I'm good for upgrading 3 flights already. Plus ones I'll earn for EQM.
I'm not too particular on flight times, except depart earlier rather than later, return later rather than earlier. Flights would bracket around long weekends, ie., Thurs-Sun, etc. Any thoughts?
I keep going back and forth on...757 more F seats, so more chances. Or, freq. biz travellers would prefer to ride on 757, so they take all the upgrades (and rightfully so, IMO) I'm 1MM and PLT this year on a challenge, and have 24 stickers in my account, so I'm good for upgrading 3 flights already. Plus ones I'll earn for EQM.
I'm not too particular on flight times, except depart earlier rather than later, return later rather than earlier. Flights would bracket around long weekends, ie., Thurs-Sun, etc. Any thoughts?
As mentioned, your best bet is flying offpeak.