ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
 

Did a search didn't see anything. I'm flying a 757 monday at 8 10 am on 2274. AA.com shows coach full with 8/22 available in F. I dont have access to any sites that give me any more info. Anyone out there care to speculate on my chances of getting up front? I started a thread recently about how I've never flown in F, I'm starting to think the SNA ORD is not the best route for me to try for my first upgrade.

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The bad news: coach being full suggests there are a lot of elites (exit rows full)
The good news: not much (any?) connecting traffic to contend with

Why not sign up for a trial on ExpertFlyer, it is free and well worth paying for once the trial is over.

Some observations:

#1- the site that will give you the best idea of fare buckets, availability, etc... for AA is expertflyer.com. It is a subscription service, if you are going to be flying a lot, it is well worth the minimal investment. W/time and a bit of study, you can learn about the patterns, etc. of upgrades and book flights on which you may have better odds (FYI: Monday am is not one of them).

#2 - The F seating chart is not a reliable indicator of availability; however a very full Y cabin means that the F seats will be held until very close to flight time. On a 757, if row 9, 10, 17 & 18 are occupied, that means 22 elites - many of whom have likely requested a sticker upgrade.

#3 - Numerous FT threads indicate that SNA is EXP heavy location.

SNA_ORD on a Monday morning? Unfortunately I'd say your chances are slim to none. As others have said, with a full coach cabin (especially exit rows) you are probably battling many other elites for those F class seats. Last Monday morning I flew DFW-PHL and was amazed at how many jumped up when they called for EXPLAT/PLAT/AIRPASS boarding, at least 35-40 people. No wonder I didn't score an upgrade!

Only HNL knows for sure. :)

And as long as people will start a new thread to ask about the upgrade chances on any route on any given day, he'll continue to have good business.

Cheers.

ok brp. let me know how to delete the thread.

No sign of a downturn.

Ask HNL to consult his patent-pending Up-Check™ system.

I guess EXP has 60% chance. PLT has 0%

The Official Patent Pending Up-Check™ calculation for that flight as a Plat is 0.23%.

You can't acces any sites that can help, like seatcounter.com?
FWIW, it is showing 0 avail in all fare categories. I put the odds of ugrade at about 0 for PLT, and nowhere near 60 percent for EXP

I flew DFW-LGA on a friday afternoon back in june and I got a nice little reality check when I saw probably 30 people on the upgrade list at the gate

If you're Platinum, flying on a traditional business-travel day (Monday), into or out of SNA... I think your chances are pretty slim. A lot of empty first-class seats is a good sign, but may not represent the actual number of open seats. I've seen empty seats on the web site, when at the same time the folks in the SNA Admiral's Club tell my husband that first class is booked full.

My husband flies to/from SNA 2-3 weeks a month, and has been doing so for a couple of years. He is EXP, and books his tickets several months in advance... which puts him right at the front of the upgrade list almost every time. Despite that, he only gets the upgrade on the leg to/from SNA about half of the time. It's a really tough destination for upgrades. Lots of people with too much money fly to/from SNA (first class is often sold out and NO upgrades are given, period), and lots of high-status fliers use the airport as well (so even when a few upgrades are available, there is a lot of competition for very few spots).

The agents in SNA tell him that they have more EXPs flying from there than any other airport. (That seems off to me; maybe they mean more than any other non-hub, or a larger percentage of travelers.) On one of his flights, they told him they had 30 EXPs on the plane, but that was probably an unusual number, for them to mention it. He's seen flights which have a waiting list of more than 20 names for upgrades.

I would say: don't expect a PLT upgrade to/from SNA, even with a lot of empty first-class seats. If you do get it, you'll be pleasantly surprised, but I don't think the odds are good at all.