ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
Jul 27, 2008, 2:45 pm
#16
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Duluth, GA
Programs: AAdvantage PLT, AA 2MM, Marriott Gold
Posts: 2,268
I'd think there's more EXP's using SJC than SNA ... but have no evidence either way. Glad to even get Y seat on AUS-SJC "nerd bird" on Mon am or Fri pm, let alone upgrade to F.
Jul 27, 2008, 3:23 pm
#17
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: USA
Programs: AA
Posts: 400
I use miles when going to SNA, and it works well. As a PLT, I have only been upgraded there once. Too many EXP, any way you slice it. However, I find mileage upgrades have some success.
Jul 27, 2008, 9:06 pm
#18
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Laguna Niguel, CA
Programs: AA PLT, 1.8mm
Posts: 6,988
SNA is my home airport, and I've done 2274 many times, generally successful in getting the upgrade (4 hours prior to flight time) and I buy tix 3-4 weeks out. I've been told by AAngels in lots of places that SNA has the highest percentage of elite staus flyers of any airport, which seems likely. After they board the EXP/PLT and Group 1, more than half the plane is boarded.
Your best bet as a PLT is to check online 4-5 hours before the flight to get an exit row seat vacated by an EXP getting the last minute upgrade. Or burn miles for the upgrade.
Your best bet as a PLT is to check online 4-5 hours before the flight to get an exit row seat vacated by an EXP getting the last minute upgrade. Or burn miles for the upgrade.
Jul 28, 2008, 2:10 pm
#19
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: LAX/SNA
Programs: AA Plat, HHonors Diamond, Delta Gold, Hertz #1 FSG
Posts: 66
in ORD
Well, I didn't make it, but found my seat in 18F perfectly ok since I slept the whole flight. At the gate prior to takeoff it looked like I may have had at least 20 people ahead of me, so, to a future traveller, it really doesnt seem like SNA-ORD on a Monday AM flight gives you any chance to upgrade as a PLT. Lots and LOTS of EXPs, PLATs and AAIrpass boarded with me.
On a side note, walking through F de-boarding, it looked really crappy/old, so I dont feel like I missed out on much of anything. Guess thats F in 752.
On a side note, walking through F de-boarding, it looked really crappy/old, so I dont feel like I missed out on much of anything. Guess thats F in 752.
Sep 25, 2008, 2:44 am
#21
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: HKG/YVR/NYC
Programs: AC 75K, A3*G, AS MVPG, AA LT Gold 1MM, JL/JGC (OWS) , Marriott Titanium, Hertz 5*, Avis PC
Posts: 3,697
Upgrades Chances as a PLT
Being a PLT, my upgrades chances varies depending on routes. I'm would like to know chances on upgrading a specific routes for 1 person. Please put into consideration that I would normally fly on sundays, fridays, and mondays, Please scale between 0 to 10 with 0 being you hit the jackpot of being upgraded to 10 being it's not your day today. For me, YVR-DFW 7, YYZ-LGA 10, LGA-BNA 9, ORD-YYZ 10 Can someone possibly tell me LGA-DFW since I'll be doing that in 2 weeks? Feel free to post any additional city pairings.
Sep 25, 2008, 4:30 am
#22
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Dallas
Programs: AA LTPLT UA1P Hilton Dia Marriott Plat
Posts: 1,183
LGA DFW tons on full Y and full F not to mention everyone else seems to be EXP. The AAngels also tend to move people around a lot so one minute you are #1 to upgrade the next #5. So it's a 15
Sep 25, 2008, 6:08 am
#23
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: SJC/VCE
Programs: AA PLT (2.9+ MM), HH GLD, Hyatt Diamond, SPG PLT
Posts: 10,161
Given the route and the dates you fly - your chances are not at all good, but I'm not a professional.
Paging HNL.....
Paging HNL.....
Sep 25, 2008, 7:57 am
#24
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: YYZ/MGA
Programs: AA 1MM Lifetime Gold, AA Platinum, WS Gold, Marriott Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 7,607
An odd scale that 0 is the best score and 10 the worst.
Sep 25, 2008, 8:13 am
#25
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EP 3MM, UA Silver, Bonvoy LT TIT, Hyatt Explorist, HH Silver, Caesars PLT
Posts: 7,259
No one moves names around on the upgrade list. When someone is added, they are inserted into the list based on status, check-in time, travel disruptions, etc. Just because one is in position #1 when added to the list does not mean that they will stay there.
Sep 25, 2008, 8:24 am
#26
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: MSY (finally); previously NYC, BOS, AUH
Programs: AA EXP, 6MM; BA GLD
Posts: 17,249
I'd rate your chances of scoring a LGA-DFW upgrade a 10, meaning a 0.
Sep 25, 2008, 9:01 am
#29
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,535
I would say that the best, and most accurate way to predict your upgrade success on these routes is to fly them a lot, keep track of upgrade success and failure when you fly. Take the number of successes and divide by the total number of attempts. Subtract this fraction from 1. Multiply this result by 10. This will give you the result you seek on the 0-high scale you have chosen. This will, of course, have little bearing on future flights, but it will provide data.
Cheers.
Cheers.
Sep 25, 2008, 10:18 am
#30
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: NYC, USA
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, Lifetime Platinum, Marriott Titanium, HH Gold
Posts: 10,968