ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
Oct 19, 2009, 11:38 pm
#241
Join Date: Jun 2008
Programs: AA ExPt 1MM, SPG Au
Posts: 106
I was on the Sunday 777 ORD-DFW a few weeks ago, and being a lowly Plat, I didn't get the upgrade, but I was second (and also last) on the upgrade list ... but I did reserve a business seat in advance, and I found that the 777 business seats kick the stuffing out of first on the MD80's or 737's. Given the value of the stickers if purchased, I had no problems with staying in a business seat and paying for my snack and drinks. 
Nov 5, 2009, 3:05 pm
#242
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: aa gold, flying blue silver
Posts: 14
upgrade to lax...how likely?
hi,
i am a gold aa and i have a flight coming up to lax on the weds 845pm flight.
how likely is it that my upgrades will clear? right now, more than half of biz is empty.
i am a gold aa and i have a flight coming up to lax on the weds 845pm flight.
how likely is it that my upgrades will clear? right now, more than half of biz is empty.
Nov 5, 2009, 3:06 pm
#243
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: NYC, USA
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, Lifetime Platinum, Marriott Titanium, HH Gold
Posts: 10,968
Paging HNL..... 
Nov 5, 2009, 3:09 pm
#244
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 10,949
I'll guess JFK - LAX is the routing.
As a Gold, The Patented Up-check® has calculated your upgrade chances at 0.8972%
Nov 5, 2009, 3:30 pm
#245
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 104
Sounds like you are going JFK - LAX on flight 185 departing 8:45 PM. Just flew that route last night. While it is less preferred because you get into LAX late there are still a lot of upgrade requests. Chances of happening as a Gold are extremely slim at best. Try for it and let us know how it turns out but prepare for the trip as if you are going coach.
Nov 5, 2009, 4:05 pm
#246
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: aa gold, flying blue silver
Posts: 14
thanks duh yes its jfk-lax. will prepare myself for the worst (coach) and be pleasantly surprised if it clears.
Nov 5, 2009, 4:17 pm
#247
Moderator: New York City and FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2007
Programs: AA PLT, Natl EC
Posts: 10,855
• What are the chances that my upgrade will clear?
Beyond that, JFK-LAX is a tough route to clear as a GLD, but keep your eye on the J inventory if you want to stress about it,
or, as you said, prepare for coach and be pleasantly surprised if you clear. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your thread has now been merged into the consolidated thread on this topic.
/Moderator
Nov 10, 2009, 1:18 am
#248
Join Date: Jan 2008
Programs: AAdvantage ExPlat
Posts: 114
Why no upgrades? (AA54 11/11)
Why is it that we are now 30 hrs. out and there are still 13 seats available in F? There are only 18 seats in Y. (via seat maps)
I've been watching this since the 100 hr. mark and it appears no upgrades have cleared (has stayed 13 F).
It seems pretty reasonable to me that AA is not going to sell 13 F seats and should open at least half or more of these for upgrades. The flight that leaves an hour later seems to have had several upgrades and is only 4 F.
What gives? I'm sure I'm being impatient - but it is always difficult to clear this route and I finally feel I have a shot!
I've been watching this since the 100 hr. mark and it appears no upgrades have cleared (has stayed 13 F).
It seems pretty reasonable to me that AA is not going to sell 13 F seats and should open at least half or more of these for upgrades. The flight that leaves an hour later seems to have had several upgrades and is only 4 F.
What gives? I'm sure I'm being impatient - but it is always difficult to clear this route and I finally feel I have a shot!
Nov 10, 2009, 1:55 am
#249
Join Date: Nov 2006
Programs: AA EXP, 1 MM, AC, HH Diamond, Marriott Silver, Hertz 5*
Posts: 4,010
It may seem pretty reasonable to you, but AA's revenue management decides when upgrade seats are released. It's a complex set of algorithms and some hocus pocus that us mere mortals will never understand that go into that decision.
Nov 10, 2009, 2:29 am
#250
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: OH
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat, Marriot Lifetime Gold
Posts: 9,539
My upgrades have all been clearing this year, but often not until minutes before boarding. Yes, it makes one impaitient, but so long as it ultimately clears, who cares?
Nov 10, 2009, 2:36 am
#251
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Northern UK
Programs: None since COVID - yet!
Posts: 330
Why is it that we are now 30 hrs. out and there are still 13 seats available in F? There are only 18 seats in Y. (via seat maps)
I've been watching this since the 100 hr. mark and it appears no upgrades have cleared (has stayed 13 F).
It seems pretty reasonable to me that AA is not going to sell 13 F seats and should open at least half or more of these for upgrades. The flight that leaves an hour later seems to have had several upgrades and is only 4 F.
What gives? I'm sure I'm being impatient - but it is always difficult to clear this route and I finally feel I have a shot!
I've been watching this since the 100 hr. mark and it appears no upgrades have cleared (has stayed 13 F).
It seems pretty reasonable to me that AA is not going to sell 13 F seats and should open at least half or more of these for upgrades. The flight that leaves an hour later seems to have had several upgrades and is only 4 F.
What gives? I'm sure I'm being impatient - but it is always difficult to clear this route and I finally feel I have a shot!
Nov 10, 2009, 3:47 am
#252
Join Date: Jan 2008
Programs: AAdvantage ExPlat
Posts: 114
Final destination is ORD.
My problem is that I can't get on the airport list because I'm coming into LAX from a partner flight (AA # though) - but there isn't an AA check-in desk where I'm coming from. Therefore, I need it to clear before it opens at the airport - otherwise my 2 hr. connection to get from TBIT gives me no hope to get on the list. I doubt I'll be able to go to the desk as boarding starts and "bump" up the list to get a seat.
My problem is that I can't get on the airport list because I'm coming into LAX from a partner flight (AA # though) - but there isn't an AA check-in desk where I'm coming from. Therefore, I need it to clear before it opens at the airport - otherwise my 2 hr. connection to get from TBIT gives me no hope to get on the list. I doubt I'll be able to go to the desk as boarding starts and "bump" up the list to get a seat.
Nov 10, 2009, 4:13 am
#253
Suspended
Join Date: May 2009
Location: LHR/NYC/DFW/LAX
Programs: AA-EXP 14M, UA-1K, AS-MVP Gold, DL-PL, CO-PL, EK-Gold, BA-Gold, HH-D, SPG-PL
Posts: 403
AA54 is LAX-ORD-MAN, continuing ORD-MAN as an International flight with J instead of F - maybe this has some implication on how they deal with upgrades on the LAX-ORD sector which I assume is the one you are talking about? Or have you tried to upgrade the LAX-ORD but are continuing on to MAN, in which case I don't know how that works....
Nov 10, 2009, 7:49 am
#254
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,535
Nov 10, 2009, 9:22 am
#255
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Dallas
Programs: AA EXP, DL Silver, Priority Club Platinum, Starwood Gold, National Emerald Club
Posts: 218
Anyone have any experience here with clearing the AA #1528 4:25pm Sunday SFO-DFW flights?
Right now seat map shows 16/16 available for Sunday, Dec 13th. Pending the next batch clears end of this month, I will be EXP. I'll also be traveling with my partner who is on a different PNR. However, I did call AA and request a no-split UG for him (meaning that it will clear only if two become available). Since he is traveling on a different PNR but I called to request for him, will he still "inherit" my EXP status for UGing and could potentially both still clear at the 100-hour mark? Is that correct? That is how I understand it.
Right now seat map shows 16/16 available for Sunday, Dec 13th. Pending the next batch clears end of this month, I will be EXP. I'll also be traveling with my partner who is on a different PNR. However, I did call AA and request a no-split UG for him (meaning that it will clear only if two become available). Since he is traveling on a different PNR but I called to request for him, will he still "inherit" my EXP status for UGing and could potentially both still clear at the 100-hour mark? Is that correct? That is how I understand it.