ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)

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Sep 20, 2009, 10:10 pm

#211

CO FF

Join Date: Sep 1999

Location: Los Angeles

Programs: UA 1K, AA 2MM, Bonvoy LT Plt, Mets fan

Posts: 5,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by zybysky

I actually was going to ask how EXP's tend to fare on this route. Seeing I'll be a newly minted EXP next month, I'll take this post into consideration on future travel plans.

of 21 flights on this route in the past year where I didn't use eVIPs or paid J, I was in Y twice; both booked 2+ weeks out, but both during big "events" in NYC (one during a media buy week, the other during fashion week).

Oct 2, 2009, 6:04 am

#212

Fornebufox

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: NYC

Programs: AA LT G (1MM);DL G, UA GM

Posts: 2,028

A slight twist to the usual question: according to AA.com View Available Seats map, Monday's flt 239 LGA-DFW shows 4 unassigned seats in Y (all exit row middles) and 9/16 empties in F, same as before the 100 hr mark. A couple of back-of-Y seats disappeared in the last week. In a well-sold case like this, is there a typical time closer to departure when they start upgrading?

Note I don't ask what are my chances, etc.--I just want to improve my Y seat once upgrades do start clearing. It just seems odd that the publicly available seats are in the exit row.

Ideal scenario would be an op-up out of a full Y cabin, but not being young, cute, or on my honeymoon I'm not holding my breath

Oct 2, 2009, 7:07 am

#213

GTITAN

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: CLT

Programs: AA EP, AA AC

Posts: 4,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fornebufox

In a well-sold case like this, is there a typical time closer to departure when they start upgrading?

Note I don't ask what are my chances, etc.--I just want to improve my Y seat

Ideal scenario would be an op-up out of a full Y cabin, but not being young, cute, or on my honeymoon I'm not holding my breath

That is a toughie. On routes like this you could be in a situation where they hold back inventory to the absolute last moment and you get a bunch of battlefield upgrades. If that were the case, then playing the seat switch game is problematic. I think the best that you can do is just monitor the seat map religiously. Also, if you have Expert Flyer, it will show X inventory at approximately 24 hours out and you can evaluate that way as well.

As to the "ideal scenario", your statement is why I love this board like I do!

To paraphrase, its the "AA Board" 'nough said.

Oct 2, 2009, 12:05 pm

#214

Fornebufox

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: NYC

Programs: AA LT G (1MM);DL G, UA GM

Posts: 2,028

At 70 hours out a SINGLE coach pax has been UG. They are squeezing this baby.

Shall I post hourly updates, o breathless readers? (KIDDING!)

Oct 2, 2009, 12:21 pm

#215

dstan

Moderator: New York City and FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Sep 2007

Programs: AA PLT, Natl EC

Posts: 10,855

I'm sure there are others with more data, but as a PLT, I've cleared 4/6 LGA-DFW/rtn segments this year, with 3 on the day of (weekdays and Sun flts), and 1 three days out (Sat flt). All of this is anecodotal, of course - I'd just keep a good eye on the seatmap.

Oct 2, 2009, 7:12 pm

#216

jww947

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maryland

Programs: Hilton Diamond, AA Ex. PLT, Delta Diamond

Posts: 190

Upgrade for GOLD member

I am fly from BWI to DFW, DFW to NRT; NRT to DFW, DFW to BWI. I am traveling on a Y fare. Oct 24 depart and return Oct 31. Does anyone know my chances of upgrading to Business?

Oct 2, 2009, 7:21 pm

#217

videomaker

Join Date: Nov 2006

Programs: AA EXP, 1 MM, AC, HH Diamond, Marriott Silver, Hertz 5*

Posts: 4,010

Quote:

Originally Posted by jww947

I am fly from BWI to DFW, DFW to NRT; NRT to DFW, DFW to BWI. I am traveling on a Y fare. Oct 24 depart and return Oct 31. Does anyone know my chances of upgrading to Business?

Since you're gold, you might be able to upgrade the domestic segments. Is it full Y fare or a discount economy?

On DFW-NRT-DFW, your chances are almost zero unless you luck out and get an op-up or are offered a chance to buy an upgrade at the kiosk. I wouldn't count on that happening.

Or you could upgrade with an eVIP or miles plus copay, depending on the fare class and availability.

And you really should read up on upgrades here. It's from the sticky FAQ at the top of the page, where it says "please check here first."

Last edited by videomaker; Oct 3, 2009 at 4:10 am Reason: Clarifying

Oct 3, 2009, 12:55 am

#218

Short hair Francis

Join Date: Sep 2007

Location: HKG/YVR/NYC

Programs: AC 75K, A3*G, AS MVPG, AA LT Gold 1MM, JL/JGC (OWS) , Marriott Titanium, Hertz 5*, Avis PC

Posts: 3,697

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fornebufox

At 70 hours out a SINGLE coach pax has been UG. They are squeezing this baby.

Shall I post hourly updates, o breathless readers? (KIDDING!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by dstan

Hey dstan, does your flight for day of clear at T-5 or T-24 for LGA-DFW? Because from my experience in 08 and 09, out of 4 LGA-DFW flights, friday AA 739-745, 3 cleared at T-5 and only 1 cleared at T-24. But Fornbufox, I personally won't worried about it too much, if you checked EF, the seat map, and existing tendencies, you could usually make an reasonable educated guess at your chances, unless you fly at peak hours.

Oct 3, 2009, 2:06 am

#219

DocD

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Champaign (CMI)

Programs: AA ExecPlat

Posts: 92

Quote:

Originally Posted by jww947

I am fly from BWI to DFW, DFW to NRT; NRT to DFW, DFW to BWI. I am traveling on a Y fare. Oct 24 depart and return Oct 31. Does anyone know my chances of upgrading to Business?

I am in a similar boat:I put in my miles + co-pay request for DFW-NRT (61) for Oct. 24 just after Labour Day for a ticket booked in August and I am still on the waitlist.

Cheers,
DocD

Oct 3, 2009, 6:54 am

#220

jamflyer

Original Member

Join Date: May 1998

Location: Tampa, FL

Programs: AAMM & PLT; UA Gold, DL Silver, Marriott LT Titanium Elite, Hilton Diamond, Hertz #1 Gold Club

Posts: 1,591

I have a EWR-MIA 2pm departure and currently have seat 9E. Does it make sense to upgrade on this flight? I have done this flight many times but never bothered to request an upgrade as I always get row 9. Is the FC service on this flight worth the 3 stickers (hate when I feel like I am wasting stickers espcially since the 3rd sticker is due to 93 miles).

Also, how do I cancel an upgrade request?

Oct 3, 2009, 11:02 am

#221

dstan

Moderator: New York City and FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Sep 2007

Programs: AA PLT, Natl EC

Posts: 10,855

Quote:

Originally Posted by Short hair Francis

Hey dstan, does your flight for day of clear at T-5 or T-24 for LGA-DFW?

All I have are the confirmation emails (and not on this computer, so I can't check right now), which arrive considerably after the upgrade has cleared online, IME, but they definitely cleared 'day of' and not at T-24.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamflyer

We go for sticker upgrades everytime we fly NYC-MIA, but everyone's threshold for how they burn stickers is different. You'll need to call AA to cancel an upgrade request.

Oct 18, 2009, 12:25 am

#222

Thunderroad

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: Benicia, California, USA

Programs: AA PLT,AS,UA PP,J6,FB,EY,LH,SQ,HH Dmd,Hyatt Glbl,Marriott Plat,IHG Plat,Accor Gold

Posts: 10,820

Best upgrade chances SFO-JFK-SFO?

I'm an EXP and will need to fly SFO-JFK-SFO in about a month. I'll need be in NYC overnight on Thursday and may want to spend a bit of extra time in town. I realize that there are no guarantees, but can anyone who flies this route a lot give me any idea of when I'm most and least likely to score upgrades between SFO and JFK? I could fly out on any time on Tuesday or early Wednesday and return any time on Friday or early Saturday.

I vaguely recall at least on thread addressing this kind of question, but now can't find it.

Thanks for any advice.

Oct 18, 2009, 2:19 am

#223

mvoight

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: May 2004

Location: DFW/DAL

Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, AS MVPG, HH Diamond, NCL Platinum Plus, MSC Diamond

Posts: 21,422

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunderroad

1. Go to Expert Flyer (5 day free trial) and check availability for Tues/Wed of next week. I see no availability for Tueday or Wedneday AM. The other flights have seats available. I would expect this to be a normal pattern. The good news is that it is now less than 96 hours and you there are clearly seats in A class. Obviously, I wouldn't count on this for Thanksgiving week, especially Wednesday afternoon.

2. The return is a bit harder, since Friday/Sat are further out. Less business travel on weekends, so I would guess Saturday would be easier, except maybe around the holidays and perhaps school breaks, as people tend to take weekend to weekend vacations.

Oct 18, 2009, 10:07 am

#224

Thunderroad

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: Benicia, California, USA

Programs: AA PLT,AS,UA PP,J6,FB,EY,LH,SQ,HH Dmd,Hyatt Glbl,Marriott Plat,IHG Plat,Accor Gold

Posts: 10,820

Good advice. Thanks very much!

FWIW, I'll be flying one week prior to Thanksgiving.

Oct 18, 2009, 10:28 am

#225

jeffreyt

Original Member

Join Date: May 1998

Location: Los Angeles, CA - Nearly 4 Million Actual Miles Flown

Posts: 5,522

Quote:

Originally Posted by mvoight

The good news is that it is now less than 96 hours and you there are clearly seats in A class.

Just curious... Why would A class matter since "A" books into first on this route? I'm assuming that the OP is trying to do just a plain sticker upgrade into business.