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Cathay Pacific (CX) Award Redemption, Booking and Availability (2019-2022)

Cathay Pacific (CX) Award Redemption, Booking and Availability (2019-2022)

Old May 9, 2020, 12:58 pm
  #1396  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,810
Originally Posted by freed0m
My thought is slightly different regarding speculative award booking.

I suspect that there will be significantly lower award availability in the next 12-24 months. 1. Airlines cut flights. 2. Airlines prefer cash upgrade when booking or during check-in, to premium award redemption. In that sense, partner redemption is better than redemption from own program because the airlines receive cash. Partner may restrict award redemption to conserve cash. Correct me if I am wrong, SAS has stopped accepting *A award redemption. More may follow.

The risk that I will not be able to book award flights when I can travel is higher. So, if I want to travel and have the miles, I will book the flights now.

If airlines cut flights, hopefully, the airline will move me to the same class on flights later. At worst, I will get my miles back.

I agree. Also, booking wonderful award trips is a bit of escapism right now. Australia, Europe, India, South Africa, here we come...
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Old May 12, 2020, 9:40 pm
  #1397  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 17
Just booked 1F/1F on CX 883/881 from LAX for next February. The departures are an hour apart, but would really like to be on the same plane as my wife, any thoughts on the probability of that happening or tricks/timing for another spot to open up for AS agents to find?
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Old May 12, 2020, 10:41 pm
  #1398  
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: SEA/ORD/ADB
Programs: TK ELPL (*G), AS 100K (OWE), BA Gold (OWE), Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Plat, IHG Plat
Posts: 7,762
Originally Posted by aaronts
Just booked 1F/1F on CX 883/881 from LAX for next February. The departures are an hour apart, but would really like to be on the same plane as my wife, any thoughts on the probability of that happening or tricks/timing for another spot to open up for AS agents to find?
If CX is still flying F class on LAX-HKG in February, I think your chances are pretty good that both reservations will get consolidated onto a single flight.
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Old May 13, 2020, 12:12 am
  #1399  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: British Columbia
Programs: AS MVPG100K, Marriott Marriott Titanium Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 7,263
Originally Posted by PVDtoDEL
If CX is still flying F class on LAX-HKG in February, I think your chances are pretty good that both reservations will get consolidated onto a single flight.
Or the once daily flight will be operated by a A359 or A351 without F.

James
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Old May 15, 2020, 11:45 am
  #1400  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 30
Looking for LAX-HKG-SIN in J for late this year. AA, JL, and QF all show availability (JL shows 4 seats), but Iíve called AS twice and the agents have been unable to find anything (I asked them to search origin to destination, not by leg). One agent mentioned that what AS sees matches most closely with BA, so I went to check BA after the call, and there are no seats available.

Any idea as to whatís going on here? Could AA, JL, and QF all be showing phantom space? Thanks.
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Old May 15, 2020, 12:38 pm
  #1401  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 4,509
Originally Posted by aabbcc
Looking for LAX-HKG-SIN in J for late this year. AA, JL, and QF all show availability (JL shows 4 seats), but Iíve called AS twice and the agents have been unable to find anything (I asked them to search origin to destination, not by leg). One agent mentioned that what AS sees matches most closely with BA, so I went to check BA after the call, and there are no seats available.

Any idea as to whatís going on here? Could AA, JL, and QF all be showing phantom space? Thanks.
Alaska inventory is not harmonized with that of OneWorld partners.

As for BA, sometimes their site glitches, Iíve had BA agents find awards that the site doesnít display. So you need to call.

Good luck.
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Old May 15, 2020, 1:16 pm
  #1402  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 30
Originally Posted by jamienbaker
Alaska inventory is not harmonized with that of OneWorld partners.

As for BA, sometimes their site glitches, Iíve had BA agents find awards that the site doesnít display. So you need to call.

Good luck.
Thanks. Recent posts seemed to suggest JL/QF most accurately reflect what's available to AS, so I was surprised that the agents weren't able to find anything (especially with 4 seats showing).
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Old May 15, 2020, 3:04 pm
  #1403  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Programs: UA, AS
Posts: 2,378
Originally Posted by aabbcc
Looking for LAX-HKG-SIN in J for late this year. AA, JL, and QF all show availability (JL shows 4 seats), but Iíve called AS twice and the agents have been unable to find anything (I asked them to search origin to destination, not by leg). One agent mentioned that what AS sees matches most closely with BA, so I went to check BA after the call, and there are no seats available.

Any idea as to whatís going on here? Could AA, JL, and QF all be showing phantom space? Thanks.
Did you check CX partner specific award availability on JL or just OneWorld availability? It can make a difference. Using JL's CX partner specific search provides the results most in line with AS IME. JL/OneWorld award search has more false positives.

Is the LAX flight departing shortly after midnight? Could be the shortly after midnight "feature". Ask the agent to search for a flight time of 1AM. Do not mention HKG, just ask for LAX-SIN on CX to make sure they pick up married segment availability (may not be necessary if the two flight segments are both available individually).
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Old May 15, 2020, 5:27 pm
  #1404  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 30
Originally Posted by skimthetrees
Did you check CX partner specific award availability on JL or just OneWorld availability? It can make a difference. Using JL's CX partner specific search provides the results most in line with AS IME. JL/OneWorld award search has more false positives.

Is the LAX flight departing shortly after midnight? Could be the shortly after midnight "feature". Ask the agent to search for a flight time of 1AM. Do not mention HKG, just ask for LAX-SIN on CX to make sure they pick up married segment availability (may not be necessary if the two flight segments are both available individually).
Thanks for the suggestions. I used the CX partner specific search on JL, which shows 4 seats available, and confirmed with both AA and QF. The LAX flight departs at 22:25, so I don't think that's the issue. I also asked the agent to search for LAX to SIN since it appears to be married segment availability (LAX to HKG alone not available on JL search), but no luck. I'll try HUCA a couple more times and see...
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Old May 15, 2020, 7:14 pm
  #1405  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Programs: UA, AS
Posts: 2,378
Originally Posted by aabbcc
Thanks for the suggestions. I used the CX partner specific search on JL, which shows 4 seats available, and confirmed with both AA and QF. The LAX flight departs at 22:25, so I don't think that's the issue. I also asked the agent to search for LAX to SIN since it appears to be married segment availability (LAX to HKG alone not available on JL search), but no luck. I'll try HUCA a couple more times and see...
Hopefully it is not a new era of blocking. Try HUCA a couple of times. Have you been calling in at the same time of day when you call? try calling in a different time of day to see if you get a different bank of agents. I doubt the time is the problem but try asking for the agent to set the search time field for the flight to 11PM and see if that makes a difference. Are you searching for all the 4J seats or less. There used to be reports that AS would see one less availability than other partners but I have not heard that rumor recently so I doubt that too.

If it's for 1 traveler how about go earlier in the day and grab an F seat? Maybe search SFO-SIN and then add an LAX-SFO on the front of it?
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Old May 17, 2020, 1:09 pm
  #1406  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: British Columbia
Programs: AS MVPG100K, Marriott Marriott Titanium Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 7,263
Cathay Pacific recovery years away.

Despite a 97% reduction in capacity in April passengers counts for April were down 99.6%, averaging less than 500 passengers per day for Cathay Pacific & Cathay Dragon combined. In total, 13,729 passengers on a load factor of just 21.7% flew in April.

As long as the HKG border remains closed to foreign nationals and transit prohibited, it is unlikely any CX flights, revenue or award, well into 2021 will actually fly. Even if transit in HKG becomes available (which could also be restricted by origin) before entry, will the final destination welcome you? If you are from North America, probably not!

If speculatively booking an award on a pre COVID-19 schedule provides escapism with dreamy thoughts of "here we come," remember, reality will likely slap you firmly in the face followed by a scolding, "don't come, you are not welcome here," waving finger! It will be quite some time before CX commits 6 777-300ER aircraft and 1300 pax capacity to 3◊ daily flights from LAX. Initially, less than 1◊ daily on a smaller capacity A359 increasing to daily and then an A351 as demand grows is more realistic, IMHO.

Intersting article! Recovery for CX will be years, not months. CX is looking at selling and leasing back assets for short term cash.

Rather than commit miles & a small amount of cash to a lottery flight 8-11 months out, I will hold off until there is more certainty that I can actually get to where I want to go and enjoy the culture & experiences of the location once there. Being barred up in a hotel room for 336 hours isn't at all appealing.

James
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Old May 17, 2020, 6:46 pm
  #1407  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,810
Originally Posted by Flying for Fun
Despite a 97% reduction in capacity in April passengers counts for April were down 99.6%, averaging less than 500 passengers per day for Cathay Pacific & Cathay Dragon combined. In total, 13,729 passengers on a load factor of just 21.7% flew in April.

As long as the HKG border remains closed to foreign nationals and transit prohibited, it is unlikely any CX flights, revenue or award, well into 2021 will actually fly. Even if transit in HKG becomes available (which could also be restricted by origin) before entry, will the final destination welcome you? If you are from North America, probably not!

If speculatively booking an award on a pre COVID-19 schedule provides escapism with dreamy thoughts of "here we come," remember, reality will likely slap you firmly in the face followed by a scolding, "don't come, you are not welcome here," waving finger! It will be quite some time before CX commits 6 777-300ER aircraft and 1300 pax capacity to 3◊ daily flights from LAX. Initially, less than 1◊ daily on a smaller capacity A359 increasing to daily and then an A351 as demand grows is more realistic, IMHO.

Intersting article! Recovery for CX will be years, not months. CX is looking at selling and leasing back assets for short term cash.

Rather than commit miles & a small amount of cash to a lottery flight 8-11 months out, I will hold off until there is more certainty that I can actually get to where I want to go and enjoy the culture & experiences of the location once there. Being barred up in a hotel room for 336 hours isn't at all appealing.

James
YMMV, as may one's mileage balance, hedging strategy, and yes, need for escapism.
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Old May 17, 2020, 11:22 pm
  #1408  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: British Columbia
Programs: AS MVPG100K, Marriott Marriott Titanium Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 7,263
Originally Posted by flytoeat
YMMV, as may one's mileage balance, hedging strategy, and yes, need for escapism.
Definitely, YMMV but not sure what there is to hedge. We are very long on MP miles, CX won't be an option this year. I still have one award on the books I made January 1st for mid October. EK J DXB-LAX with a stopover and an AS Saver A LAX-JFK in November. I had planned to add on an additional EK flight to DXB when I figured out if I was going to be in Australia, Asia or South Africa. I am pretty sure I will be cancelling that flight too. It isn't that I want to, it is because governments will require me to if I want to keep the miles.

In February & March as things were starting to unravel, I was able to book QF J LAX-JFK-LAX-SYD//SYD-AKL, 55K outbound and SYD-BNE-LAX//LAX-FLL 55K inbound last minute. I changed the LAX-FLL to a later date, then changed it to OGG. I am not worried at all about availability when it is possible to travel again. After a month long, daily battle of keeping ahead of my itineraries and a slew of cancellations, ultimately I headed home on April 3rd/4th on a 10K award with less than 800 EQM short of 90K AS+Partners. Escapism for me, is booking something that will stick.

Enjoy your escapism! In all seriousnees, if it makes you feel better, all the power to you.


James
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Old May 18, 2020, 12:34 am
  #1409  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Programs: Alaska
Posts: 2,171
Originally Posted by Flying for Fun

In February & March as things were starting to unravel, I was able to book QF J LAX-JFK-LAX-SYD//SYD-AKL, 55K outbound and SYD-BNE-LAX//LAX-FLL 55K inbound last minute. I changed the LAX-FLL to a later date, then changed it to OGG. I am not worried at all about availability when it is possible to travel again. After a month long, daily battle of keeping ahead of my itineraries and a slew of cancellations, ultimately I headed home on April 3rd/4th on a 10K award with less than 800 EQM short of 90K AS+Partners. Escapism for me, is booking something that will stick.

Enjoy your escapism! In all seriousnees, if it makes you feel better, all the power to you.


James
you should worry about availability when it is possible to travel again. That’s what is the hedge, especially with cancellation fee waiver with MVPG. The risk is only $12.5 partner award fee.

even when it is possible to travel, the number of flights will be reduced. The availability could be less, too as airline prioritise cash over awards.

as a case study, right after SARS, there was more cheap cash upgrade availability, less award availability.

Last edited by freed0m; May 18, 2020 at 3:01 am
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Old May 18, 2020, 2:24 am
  #1410  
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,280
I currently have a trip to India (CX F/J to MAA, SQ paid nonrefundable J, ouch, BOM-SIN-SEA. Stopovers in HKG/SIN) in December 2020/January 2021

I’m not particularly optimistic this will happen, but in the VERY worst case if I can afford to pay $1500 to fly SQ I can pay $1500 and not fly them (I’d like a generous way to use the money for future flights, but that might not be SQ’s MO). I will say if the itinerary is possible (visas, etc.) I’ll try to travel.

But I have no intent of doing much planning, fixing broken itineraries, etc. until MUCH closer in. It’s a fool’s errand to do otherwise.
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Last edited by eponymous_coward; May 18, 2020 at 2:32 am
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