Despite a 97% reduction in capacity in April passengers counts for April were down 99.6%, averaging less than 500 passengers per day for Cathay Pacific & Cathay Dragon combined. In total, 13,729 passengers on a load factor of just 21.7% flew in April.

As long as the HKG border remains closed to foreign nationals and transit prohibited, it is unlikely any CX flights, revenue or award, well into 2021 will actually fly. Even if transit in HKG becomes available (which could also be restricted by origin) before entry, will the final destination welcome you? If you are from North America, probably not!

If speculatively booking an award on a pre COVID-19 schedule provides escapism with dreamy thoughts of "here we come," remember, reality will likely slap you firmly in the face followed by a scolding, "don't come, you are not welcome here," waving finger! It will be quite some time before CX commits 6 777-300ER aircraft and 1300 pax capacity to 3× daily flights from LAX. Initially, less than 1× daily on a smaller capacity A359 increasing to daily and then an A351 as demand grows is more realistic, IMHO.

Intersting article! Recovery for CX will be years, not months. CX is looking at selling and leasing back assets for short term cash.

Rather than commit miles & a small amount of cash to a lottery flight 8-11 months out, I will hold off until there is more certainty that I can actually get to where I want to go and enjoy the culture & experiences of the location once there. Being barred up in a hotel room for 336 hours isn't at all appealing.

James