Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Jul 15, 2019, 2:37 pm
#4261
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,620
I had trouble clearing upgrades on this flight as a 1K all the time, more so out of SFO. But it is a Wed flight (less elites) and 8 open at T40 so that is not bad. JMHO (and I'm a pessimist) I would still give slightly better than 50% chance. Let's see what others say.
Jul 15, 2019, 2:39 pm
#4262
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,406
The 781 is a big plane. There are lots of potential customers for a $249 TOD upgrade.
Jul 15, 2019, 3:16 pm
#4263
Join Date: Aug 2018
Programs: SkyPesos -> MVP Gold 100K
Posts: 680
UA565 YYZ-SFO literally cleared 5 minutes before take off. They were already in the process closing doors and I was sitting in 7C when I refreshed my UA app and it showed upgrade cleared for F. Asked an agent to move seats but she just told me 'I'll get back to you', deplaned and never saw her again. FA's told me to move up front instead.
Jul 15, 2019, 4:39 pm
#4264
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,620
Geezzz are they (TOD's) that low now??? Haven't got a TOD offer in while. Yeah it is tough, I threw instruments at EVERY flight I took last year so sadly you are probably correct.
Jul 15, 2019, 4:50 pm
#4265
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,406
One person's low is another person's unbelievably expensive. I can fly to Asia on an upgraded W fare for not much more than some people pay for SFO-NYC RT J. 
That said, the TODs may be up to $299 now; I feel like they changed the route differential a few months back.
That said, the TODs may be up to $299 now; I feel like they changed the route differential a few months back.
Jul 15, 2019, 6:29 pm
#4266
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,414
It's somewhere between $249 and $349; they're not exactly known for precision
Basically a wash against the 30-day P fares once you factor in the benefits of flying a true premium fare.
Basically a wash against the 30-day P fares once you factor in the benefits of flying a true premium fare.
Jul 16, 2019, 12:23 pm
#4267
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: YVR
Programs: Aeroplan 50K
Posts: 23
I want to do YUL-CDG on Saturday, 31 August, so I have a choice of connection points to try to use my GPU for a TATL upgrade. Which would give me the best chance of a GPU clearing that day: EWR-CDG, IAD-CDG, ORD-CDG, or what?
Jul 17, 2019, 10:17 pm
#4268
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .53 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre, Hertz PC
Posts: 581
Companion and I are flying SFO-SEA roundtrip next month. The question is, what is the likelihood of clearing on each flight? And is it a waste of a four SWU's if I apply them? (Assuming I'd use them on future, harder-to-clear routes.) I'd rather not burn the SWU if my chances of clearing are good.
Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24
Sunday, 8/11/19
UA 2234
4:25 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN5 PZ0
Booked 2/20
Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24
Sunday, 8/11/19
UA 2234
4:25 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN5 PZ0
Booked 2/20
Jul 17, 2019, 10:26 pm
#4269
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,455
I think the most we can say is you would have a chance at the CPU, with fare class definitely weighing into the equation. Odds better if you're Q or higher, probably not great if you're S or lower. Applying instruments would certainly enhance the odds. 2 hour flight on a 739 obviously not the best use of a GPU.
Jul 17, 2019, 10:29 pm
#4270
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .53 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre, Hertz PC
Posts: 581
I think the most we can say is you would have a chance at the CPU, with fare class definitely weighing into the equation. Odds better if you're Q or higher, probably not great if you're S or lower. Applying instruments would certainly enhance the odds. 2 hour flight on a 739 obviously not the best use of a GPU.
Given my future travel plans, it's likely that I'll be trying to burn them on SFO-ORD / ORD-SFO. Given that that route is usually futile, I'm inclined to apply them now.
Jul 17, 2019, 10:37 pm
#4271
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,455
Jul 17, 2019, 11:13 pm
#4272
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,453
Companion and I are flying SFO-SEA roundtrip next month. The question is, what is the likelihood of clearing on each flight? And is it a waste of a four SWU's if I apply them? (Assuming I'd use them on future, harder-to-clear routes.) I'd rather not burn the SWU if my chances of clearing are good.
Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24
Thursday, 8/8/19
UA 800
5:30 PM Departure
B737-900
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN3 PZ0
Booked 4/24
Jul 17, 2019, 11:32 pm
#4274
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,455