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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Jun 22, 2019, 5:18 pm
  #4171  
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Originally Posted by danthflyer
So, I'm in this potentially awesome situation of getting to fly business class on these really long flights but also this potentially miserable situation of being stuck in regular economy. I normally fly premium economy, so I'm hoping to at least not be worse off than normal.
If you are unwilling to sit in economy, one possibly is to call and upfare to premium economy. You will only pay fare difference -- not change fee.

That way, you are guaranteed of sitting in at least the class of service that you're accustomed to, and it also puts you ahead of everyone in economy on the upgrade list (meaning that it's much more likely to clear). Of course it also means that you have to spend a lot more money.

Personally, I'm unwilling to sit in economy on long hauls, so this is what I'd do unless I was really, really sure it was going to clear.
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 6:13 pm
  #4172  
 
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Your status and not that of your GS friend matters

I wanted to note that whether these upgrades clear are dependent on YOUR STATUS on UA and not your friend's so you may be further down on the list.
Perhaps someone can add to this as I have only had a friend use an upgrade for me once.

Last edited by greene; Jun 22, 2019 at 6:15 pm Reason: Spelling
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 6:37 pm
  #4173  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
As a lot of bookings are done in the last 2 weeks, it hard to provide a strong set of odds other than UA 2 > UA 1 -- but for a GS GPU, there is always a decent chance.
Thank you. This makes it sound as though I'm unlikely to find out whether I'm getting an upgrade until pretty close to the last minute. I think I'll need to monitor the available Economy Plus seats and see if those start to dwindle.

Originally Posted by VegasGambler
If you are unwilling to sit in economy, one possibly is to call and upfare to premium economy.
Thanks, and I would definitely consider this. The question is, do I need to pull the trigger right away? At the moment, there are so many Economy Plus seats available (these flights apparently don't have Premium Economy), my assumption is that I could wait until they start to become scarce before upgrading. Please correct me if I'm wrong, though.

Also, can GPUs be used to upgrade to Economy Plus if Business Class is not available?
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 6:40 pm
  #4174  
 
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Originally Posted by greene
I wanted to note that whether these upgrades clear are dependent on YOUR STATUS on UA and not your friend's so you may be further down on the list.
Perhaps someone can add to this as I have only had a friend use an upgrade for me once.
If that's correct, that's not good news
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 6:43 pm
  #4175  
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Originally Posted by danthflyer
.... Also, can GPUs be used to upgrade to Economy Plus if Business Class is not available?
No
E+ is the same fare class as E-, and E+ is considered a "preferred" seat in the same cabin. It can be accessed for a fee and would be a poor use of a GPU.
On FT we don't use the word upgrade for E+ because there is no change in fare class.

Originally Posted by greene
I wanted to note that whether these upgrades clear are dependent on YOUR STATUS on UA and not your friend's so you may be further down on the list. ....
That is only partially correct. GS instruments even when used by a non-status passenger clear into PN, which gives the non-status passenger higher priority than a 1K using their own instruments (which needs PZ). On the PN waitlist, the passenger status then matters, but the PN distinction matters much more.
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 8:33 pm
  #4176  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
No
E+ is the same fare class as E-, and E+ is considered a "preferred" seat in the same cabin. It can be accessed for a fee and would be a poor use of a GPU.
On FT we don't use the word upgrade for E+ because there is no change in fare class.
I see, though if someone has a coupon that were about to expire, I don't think it would be a "bad use".

Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
That is only partially correct. GS instruments even when used by a non-status passenger clear into PN, which gives the non-status passenger higher priority than a 1K using their own instruments (which needs PZ). On the PN waitlist, the passenger status then matters, but the PN distinction matters much more.
Interesting ^
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 8:37 pm
  #4177  
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Originally Posted by danthflyer
I see, though if someone has a coupon that were about to expire, I don't think it would be a "bad use".
Any UA elite with GPUs has free E+ access.
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Old Jun 22, 2019, 10:29 pm
  #4178  
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Originally Posted by greene
I wanted to note that whether these upgrades clear are dependent on YOUR STATUS on UA and not your friend's so you may be further down on the list.
Not really true. As WineCountryUA noted already, GS GPU clear into PN. PN opens before PZ, so a GM on a GS GPU has much better odds than a 1k on any kind of fare.
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 12:52 am
  #4179  
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Not really true. As WineCountryUA noted already, GS GPU clear into PN. PN opens before PZ, so a GM on a GS GPU has much better odds than a 1k on any kind of fare.
Prior to the gate, this is definitely true. If the upgrade goes to the gate, I think it’s still true, but I’m not 100% sure. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that fare class no longer matters at that point, but I’m not sure we have enough data points to be confident either way.

OP: Buy an E+ seat assignment now if you see a price that you’re comfortable with. You will be eligible for a refund after your flight if the GPU clears. Note that there is a major difference in comfort between Economy Plus and Premium Economy — E+ is regular economy with extra legroom, but nothing else. The alternative — waiting until they become scarce — is viable, but you never know when somebody make book the seat you were looking at.
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 4:47 am
  #4180  
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Originally Posted by jsloan
Prior to the gate, this is definitely true. If the upgrade goes to the gate, I think it’s still true, but I’m not 100% sure.
That's a pretty small percentage of GPU upgrades. Regardless what happens when the list goes to the gate, clearing into PN is a huge, orders of magnitude advantage over clearing into PZ.
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 2:20 pm
  #4181  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan
OP: Buy an E+ seat assignment now if you see a price that you’re comfortable with. You will be eligible for a refund after your flight if the GPU clears.
I didn't realize I could get a refund, thank you! The united.com seat selector quoted me $400 combined for the two flights, which seemed reasonable (given I usually pay an extra $1000 or more for premium economy). so I took the deal. Peace of mind.

Originally Posted by jsloan
Note that there is a major difference in comfort between Economy Plus and Premium Economy — E+ is regular economy with extra legroom, but nothing else. The alternative — waiting until they become scarce — is viable, but you never know when somebody make book the seat you were looking at.
I haven't flown E+ in a while now, but the extra legroom and recline are still worth something. Also (I'm stretching here), there tend to be less rowdy kids/crying babies and they're less likely to run out of popular meal selections. I will miss the extra seat width and foot rest of true premium economy. At least I already have my own noise canceling headphones
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 6:07 pm
  #4182  
 
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Can anybody with experience on USA-HKG routes let me know which of these flights you think has the best chance of upgrade, bearing in mind the route and date? All four have P9, PN0, PZ0. I have one GPU to use for a journey originating at EWR on Oct 10th, and returning via SFO on Oct 15th. I don't care about non-stop vs connecting (even if it means connecting from EWR to ORD or SFO in Y), just looking for the best chance of upgrade on the long haul segment.

Here are the current loads
EWR-HKG Thurs Oct 10: 11/60 booked
ORD-HKG Thurs Oct 10: 6/50 booked
SFO-HKG Thurs Oct 10: 15/60 booked
HKG-SFO Tues Oct 15: 17/60 booked

My thoughts right now are to go for the EWR-HKG direct, but would appreciate any advice.
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 6:56 pm
  #4183  
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Originally Posted by david_oz
My thoughts right now are to go for the EWR-HKG direct, but would appreciate any advice.
October too far out to handicap. Anything past about 10 weeks out, you're waitlisting blind. Can you book R from ORD or EWR?
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Old Jun 23, 2019, 7:25 pm
  #4184  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
October too far out to handicap. Anything past about 10 weeks out, you're waitlisting blind. Can you book R from ORD or EWR?
For sure you cannot book R from ORD. I looked for TATL or TPAC flights up to April next year and we don't get Premium Plus.

It looks that EWR-HKG in October 2019 is served by the 773ER that has Premium Plus. So, can book R on that flight.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Jun 23, 2019 at 7:36 pm
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Old Jun 24, 2019, 7:14 pm
  #4185  
 
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I have an upcoming flight July 4th from EWR to ZRH on a W fare class and applied a GPU to upgrade on a 767-400ER. My upgrade of course has not cleared and when I check the loads, it shows J8, C6, D6 and P2. Does this mean that there are only 8 business class seats available for purchase? If so, then what is the likelihood of this GPU clearing. I've never flown to ZRH before and not sure how busy or popular this airport is. Thanks.
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