Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > United Airlines | MileagePlus
Reload this Page >

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

Community
Wiki Posts
Search
Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Print Wikipost

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Jun 13, 2019, 8:37 am
  #4126  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,424
Aren't they still selling them to only 30J? If that's the case, an upgrade as a GS should be guaranteed.

ed. guess no, if J9 and sold 23. Interesting. Mildly surprised they're willing to be over by 16 in J, but not sell PE.
findark is online now  
Old Jun 13, 2019, 8:44 am
  #4127  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Houston
Programs: DL DM/2MM, UA Gold/1MM, AS MVP 100K, BA Gold, TK Elite
Posts: 1,425
I'd like some advice on different options for GPU. I'm trying to go IAH-Asia in August and I'm flexible on whether to go to Singapore or Hong Kong. Is there one route that is easier than the other to get cleared GPUs? I believe LA-Singapore was pretty easy when it was still running, but I know SFO is notoriously difficult since so many GS. It looks like the ORD-HKG route is pretty empty on most days. Thanks for any feedback you could provide.
TechMarauder is offline  
Old Jun 13, 2019, 9:05 am
  #4128  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,417
Originally Posted by findark
Aren't they still selling them to only 30J? If that's the case, an upgrade as a GS should be guaranteed.

ed. guess no, if J9 and sold 23. Interesting. Mildly surprised they're willing to be over by 16 in J, but not sell PE.
Sorry, I should have included J9; it didn’t even occur to me. Of course, J9 is only an indication that they’re willing to sell to 32 (so far). Maybe they figure it’s easier to re-accommodate somebody in J than P+, since every plane has J but most don’t have P+...

That’s an excellent point, though. @doc34, for context: the 46J configuration is new and they have a limited number of planes set up that way. The standard configuration for that plane type is 30J. Up to this point, they’ve been limiting the J cabin to 30 confirmed seats until they’re confident that they won’t have to swap out the equipment. That would have pretty much guaranteed your upgrade, but likely not until the gate. If they’re now selling all 46 seats, that may change things.

Originally Posted by TechMarauder
I'd like some advice on different options for GPU. I'm trying to go IAH-Asia in August and I'm flexible on whether to go to Singapore or Hong Kong. Is there one route that is easier than the other to get cleared GPUs? I believe LA-Singapore was pretty easy when it was still running, but I know SFO is notoriously difficult since so many GS. It looks like the ORD-HKG route is pretty empty on most days. Thanks for any feedback you could provide.
The answer is “whichever has PZ space.” (Search SFO-SIN, SFO-HKG, ORD-HKG, EWR-HKG). If none do, find the HKG flight with the lightest load. The SFO-SIN flights have gotten easier since they went to 2x daily, but it’s still one of the tougher upgrades in the system.

Also, if you’re going to HKG, make sure to compare the price for W and R; it’s possible that R (a Premium Plus fare) may be cheaper than W, but it has higher upgrade priority. (P+ is not available on all routes; it’s on SFO-HKG but not SFO-SIN, for example).
jsloan is offline  
Old Jun 13, 2019, 10:29 am
  #4129  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Programs: UA 1k, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 363
Originally Posted by Aussienarelle
TODs.
What is TODs ? thx

Originally Posted by jjmoore
YYZ-DEN ... probably a coin-toss. Lots of SDC action on these flights.
DEN-BUR... probably 90% certain of clearing based on the load and perceived premier load (based on taken seats in Y+)

At least you won't be on the awful CRJ-700 flight from YYZ-DEN that sometimes gets diverted for a fuel stop.


I would go with UA16 ... showing PN4... meaning all GS with instruments have cleared. Your chances are good. Probably 70%+ if I had to guess, and I, personally, would be willing to purchase W for that one right now.
As an update in case it i helpful to anyone else, this cleared 3 days ago. Put into 2K/L moved to 1K/L .... still undecided if the extra footwell space outweighs the really bad bright light from the galley all night.....

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jun 13, 2019 at 1:29 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
simonoaks is offline  
Old Jun 13, 2019, 12:04 pm
  #4130  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NY
Programs: UA, Marriott, SPG, Hyatt, Hilton, Omni
Posts: 108
Originally Posted by Kacee
Good luck, there may be last minute cancels or misconnects.
Thanks - at T-24 and J4, my GPU upgrade cleared.
hudsonlaluna is offline  
Old Jun 13, 2019, 1:34 pm
  #4131  
Moderator: United Airlines
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,859
Originally Posted by simonoaks
What is TODs ?.....
Cash upgrades -- at check-in, via the app, at the gate, .....
The original "tens of dollars" referred to certain discounted cash upgrades but the meaning has broadened

some resources for terms / acronyms
FT Glossary (link on the bottom of most FT pages
United Airlines Forum Glossary
WineCountryUA is offline  
Old Jun 14, 2019, 11:01 am
  #4132  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 18
Originally Posted by Kacee
Bottom line is that guessing Plat CPU odds on a business route past the window is a total crapshoot. As 1K, if I don't CPU at T-96, it's almost impossible to predict what's going to happen. But the odds are usually not good (unless it's one of those flights with a wide-open F cabin, where they don't run a sweep until T-24 . . . in those cases, I usually have a chance).
Just to inform that I was upgraded at T-24.
mittch is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 2:05 pm
  #4133  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Programs: United currently plat
Posts: 203
Mileage upgrade award

Aloha, I requested a Mileage Upgrade Award for the following:

7/4 UA 1575 HNL-SFO 11:07 pm

7/5 UA 295 SFO-EWR 8:15 am

both are waitlisted, i am a *S...

I’ve had the recent luck of getting a complimentary upgrade on my last two LAX-HNL, incredibly surprising and completely unrelated to this question.

I’d be really bummed if my upgrade into SFO cleared, wasting my miles on a red eye on a 739..
evol is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 3:12 pm
  #4134  
Moderator: United Airlines
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,859
Originally Posted by evol
Aloha, I requested a Mileage Upgrade Award for the following:

7/4 UA 1575 HNL-SFO 11:07 pm ...
HNL to SFO is tougher that to LAX and it is too early to tell -- but flying mid-week on the 4th that might be a chance

Originally Posted by evol
7/5 UA 295 SFO-EWR 8:15 am ...
While the holiday week travel will be down, this will be less likely to clear. Non-holiday week, this is an impossible upgrade for a UA Silver.

Check after the 1st
WineCountryUA is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 4:52 pm
  #4135  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,470
Originally Posted by Kacee
Bottom line is that guessing Plat CPU odds on a business route past the window is a total crapshoot. As 1K, if I don't CPU at T-96, it's almost impossible to predict what's going to happen. But the odds are usually not good (unless it's one of those flights with a wide-open F cabin, where they don't run a sweep until T-24 . . . in those cases, I usually have a chance).
I'm late to this discussion, but this is exactly the correct insight, except that in my recent experience most flights are the no-sweep-till-T24 type. If you don't make it to the front with the first of the 1K upgrades, it's a coin toss or worse.
fumje is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:13 pm
  #4136  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
UA505, SFO-IAH, 11:55pm Mon Nov 25: CPU chances?

Currently booked on SFO-IAH at 11:55pm Mon Nov 25, connecting to IAH-CUN at 8am.

I'm booked in S class. I can upfare to P for $239 (paid $662 RT; $901 for RT with outbound in P and same return -- my understanding is there there is no additional change fee for an upfare, so long as flights are not changed?) It's worth noting that SFO-IAH is on a 772.

Or, I could hold out for a CPU (I have Gold status). J on the IAH-CUN segment is a nice bonus but I'm really gunning for that lie-flat for 4 hr.

It should be noted that that's the week of thanksgiving. Currently there are only 2 booked into F, but it's extremely early. I'm not sure if that date would be more or less busy than usual -- more leisure travel, due to some people leaving early for thanksgiving, but also less business travel due to the short week?)

If I have good CPU chances I'll probably wait... if not, $239 is not a bad deal.

Thoughts?
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:17 pm
  #4137  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,470
Originally Posted by VegasGambler
Currently booked on SFO-IAH at 11:55pm Mon Nov 25, connecting to IAH-CUN at 8am.

I'm booked in S class. I can upfare to P for $239 (paid $662 RT; $901 for RT with outbound in P and same return -- my understanding is there there is no additional change fee for an upfare, so long as flights are not changed?) It's worth noting that SFO-IAH is on a 772.

Or, I could hold out for a CPU (I have Gold status). J on the IAH-CUN segment is a nice bonus but I'm really gunning for that lie-flat for 4 hr.

It should be noted that that's the week of thanksgiving. Currently there are only 2 booked into F, but it's extremely early. I'm not sure if that date would be more or less busy than usual -- more leisure travel, due to some people leaving early for thanksgiving, but also less business travel due to the short week?)

If I have good CPU chances I'll probably wait... if not, $239 is not a bad deal.

Thoughts?
I think you're asking about CPU chances for SFO-IAH. With the possible exception of GS, the answer to that question is 0%, even on Thanksgiving week Monday.
fumje is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 5:19 pm
  #4138  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
Originally Posted by fumje
I think you're asking about CPU chances for SFO-IAH. With the possible exception of GS, the answer to that question is 0%, even on Thanksgiving week Monday.
Ok! Thanks, I'll spend the cash.

EDIT: And, it's done! I called in; totally painless process. It turned out to be ~$11 cheaper since they did not reprice my return (the RT price I was seeing online included a slightly more expensive return).

Last edited by VegasGambler; Jun 17, 2019 at 5:40 pm
VegasGambler is offline  
Old Jun 17, 2019, 8:58 pm
  #4139  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AA
Posts: 22
6/18 UA 1565 IAH-SJO
Capacity 16
Booked 15
We are 1 and 2 on the upgrade list. Send some prayers my way.
fullflaps is offline  
Old Jun 18, 2019, 12:47 pm
  #4140  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Programs: United currently plat
Posts: 203
Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
HNL to SFO is tougher that to LAX and it is too early to tell -- but flying mid-week on the 4th that might be a chance

While the holiday week travel will be down, this will be less likely to clear. Non-holiday week, this is an impossible upgrade for a UA Silver.

Check after the 1st
Thank you, the HNL-SFO cleared last night.

Can i ask to be downgraded if the other leg doesn’t clear? I’m aware that if one leg clears the upgrade is considered used, but just wondering if one can cancel with penalty?
evol is offline  


Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.