united 1k flyer

sorry i meant 787 ok i will keep my eyes out for pz, do you think any seats will go out for upgrades because if they do we will be top of the upgrade list correct?

Kmxu

Kacee

When jsloan says your upgrade odds are "close to zero" he is being courteously optimistic.

WineCountryUA

Multiple such reports in https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unit...atus-tool.html. Let's continue the discussion there.

The GS crowd (which is large for ORD-SFO) will be at the top of the waitlist, hence the warnings of potential disappointment.

jsloan

If you do not clear prior to boarding, the upgrade priority is Global Services members, then people using upgrade instruments, ordered first by the status of the highest people in the party, and then by the fare class.

You'd be surprised how many people use upgrade instruments on SFO-ORD.

:-) There's always a chance. But, I agree, it's not a good one.

That said: if you were asking about the possibility of upgrade space opening on the 777 the night before, that seems more likely, specifically because they're using the international configuration (50 J seats). The fact that it's already at PN3 means that they're anticipating that they may not sell all of their seats. If sales continue to lag their projections, they may open PZ, but nobody can say with any confidence whether or not that will actually happen. But, yes, upgrade space on the 753 - the first hub-to-hub flight Monday morning, is going to be almost impossible to find.

Kacee

And this is also a heavy "buy F" route. Many of the currently open seats will be sold either as part of a business class TPAC itinerary or as buy-ups, as those hoping for an upgrade watch the F seats disappear.

The DooDah Man

Interested in input on this route.

November 15 IAH-LIM
Two people on MUA with 1K. Booked with G fare on 6/18.

• Available fare classes:
• J9 JN9 C9 D7 Z5 ZN5 P2 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9

Return flight November 20

• Available fare classes:
• J9 JN9 C4 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9

UAFLYER22

Aug 2nd UA 229 IAD-SAN
Premier Gold
Booked in Y. Offering me MUA (waitlisted) at 7,500 miles...
Possible I'll clear that or should I have a GS GPU applied?

• J4
• JN4
• C2
• D0
• Z0
• ZN0
• P0
• PN0
• PZ0
• IN0
• I0
• Y9
• YN9
• B9
• M9
• E8
• U5
• H4
• HN0
• Q2
• V0
• W0
• S0
• T0
• L0
• K0
• G0
• N9
• XN0
• X0

StuckinITH

J4. That looks extremely bad for upgrades. The remaining seats will be sold in the next week or if they are not by the time of check-in some passengers will be tempted by TODs.

jsloan

Too soon to say, and UA just deactivated the tool that made it easy to check future loads. (You can still do it by changing the date on your phone, if you're so inclined). However, oddly enough, the inventory numbers suggest a better chance on the southbound Friday flight than the northbound Wednesday flight. Generally, midweek is easier.


First of all, it's moot, because you won't clear unless there are major iRROPS.

That said, the MUA is a complete waste of miles, because you are already eligible for an instant upgrade if there is space available. If the world goes nuts and PZ space opens, you should see a "Confirm Upgrade" button in your app, or you can call and ask for the upgrade to be pushed through.

The GS GPU would at least clear into PN, which is ahead of PZ -- but, again, it doesn't matter, as they won't be clearing any upgrades. They will sell the remaining seats.

NgatesSEA

How do these flights look for a 1k using GPU or cash+miles on a Sunday departure in mid-August SFO-ICN, returning Friday in mid-Aug ICN-SFO? I will book in M class outbound and A (Premium Plus) for return.

• UA893 SFO-ICN (779 w/o PP) Sunday: J9 C9 D9 Z0 P0 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W3 S3 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (18/48 C booked)
• UA806 ICN-SFO (772 w/ PP) Friday:_J9 C9 D9 Z8 P3 O9 A7 R1 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q1 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (13/24 C booked)

dkc192

I like your chances, decidedly more so on the return than on the outbound, but both seem doable. Last I checked, 806/805 had plenty of confirmable PZ 1-3 months out. Can you confirm the booked load though? 13/24 seems wrong. If it's in fact 13/50, then I'd feel pretty good.

893/892 seem to be more popular with premium pax, and the Z0 P0 inventory suggests UA thinks it can sell the remaining 30 seats at high-ish D fares. But given you're flying less than a month out, I'd still not feel terrible about your odds. Maybe 50/50 or slightly worse.

StuckinITH

The 13/24 you quote for UA806 must be for the PP section. What's the number for Polaris Business? With an A fare for PP you will be high up in the priority for the upgrade to Polaris Business.

NgatesSEA

​​​​​​​Thank you!

Indeed. The Polaris business cabin is currently booked 27/50.

dkc192

Hmm. With 27/50 booked, I'm slightly less bullish and would downgrade my prediction to 50/50 or so.