VRFast

You can clear now if you immediately apply PP or a MUA

Kmxu

Your.connection flight has J2. That is why the LHR flight has PZ> J. LHR flight has a lot of more J.

Edit: To answer OP�s question, it is 150% for LHR-LAX, PZ/J x 100%.

elmira56925

What are my chances for my 1K upgrade on the 5/22 AM flight from MCO-SFO on the K fare. I�m expecting close to 0% but a lot of Economy Plus seats open with 5 seats in 1st still available. The gf and I have 7D AND 7E which are pretty good seats on that 2 row seat on the 757-3

findark

Only 5 left with 11 days to go? Not good odds at all, unless MCO has weird booking dynamics which for all I know it might.

exerda

As we get closer to the end of our vacation, what are the thoughts on:

HND-IAD UA804
5/16 (Thursday)
Booked in Y, upgraded to PE at booking, waitlisted for J (PZ)
Currently J9 JN9 C9 D8 Z8 ZN8 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O1 Y9 B9 etc. (down to T8 and L7, so economy isn't remotely oversold like it was last Wednesday on our trip out).

Overnight, they went from D/Z/P9 to 8s, but not other appreciable changes. Still looks like the best option, although I could change to NRT-LAX-IAD to get the longhaul to confirm into J (and almost certainly miss the upgrade LAX-IAD).

I'm thinking chances are good--but whether it becomes a 24 or 48 hour out deal is the question. I can refare my wife's award into JN now (and pay an extra 100k RDM) but am also hoping to see IN open up before the day of travel.

Kmxu

I would like to say that the chance is decent, based upon the upgrade standby lists of the two earlier dates. There are very few paying customers on the lists. Hope that Thursday's HND-IAD is similar.
Good luck.

rktj

This forum has been really helpful so thought I would relay our recent experience. Overnight our Polaris upgrade cleared for our party of 3 on ORD-HND leaving in two weeks. We were booked in PP (R) and were on 30K Miles + $450 upgrade waitlist with no status. Polaris has been wide open for a while and O/A/R had been sitting at 6. Yesterday, O/A/R jumped to 9 as well as change to PN4 and PZ0. This morning, seatmap showed 6 additional seats in PP and 6 less in Polaris. Polaris still seems to have alot of availability. Interesting that the upgrade happened while PZ was 0 (as of late last night).

sfo3388

I have one rare Polaris upgrade which was cleared within a few hours after purchase. The departure date was a few weeks away. PZ was 0 at time of purchase.

I have been following LHR-xxx-SFO PZ availability and trying to determine the timing of applying Polaris upgrade. For example, on Monday 5/27, two of the three LHR-ORD flights (8:30 and 15:20) have PZ>0 since Saturday 5/11. LHR-SFO and LHR-LAX also had flights with PZ>0 on and off since last Thursday. Can I say the passengers who applied the Polaris upgrade on these flights would be cleared before PZ>0 was posted? I have seen FT postings that PZ>0 was posted but the upgrade was not cleared. Is the chance of not being upgraded when PZ>0 more likely to happen within T-36?

Not many people have free time to check PZ availability at 5am Central time every day. Although United will not let public know how it processes Polaris upgrade, would you assume United will process current waiting list before PZ>0 is posted?

jsloan

Not if you'd like to be accurate, no.

No, it can happen anytime.

It is clear that they do not.

charmanharman

Hi,
I am flying to Athens in a few days and am in Polaris but my child is in economy plus on a separate ticket. I am 1K. My child is waitlisted for Polairs with plus points. Here is what the fare classes currently say:

• J2
• JN2
• C2
• D1
• Z1
• ZN1
• P0
• PN0
• PZ0
• IN0
• I0
• O0
• ON0
• A0
• R0
• RN0
• Y1
• YN1
• B0
• M0
• E0
• U0
• H0
• HN0
• Q0
• V0
• W0
• S0
• T0
• L0
• K0
• G0
• XN0
• X0

I am wondering what our chances are and if I should instead try to use PP to upgrade to Premium Plus instead. I don't really understand this very well as I am a newbie with expert mode. Thanks!

Kacee

I'm afraid the odds are essentially zero. J2 means there are only two business class seats for sale. O0 means there are no PE seats for sale.

Also, your child will not inherit your status, and will therefore be behind all elites in the upgrade queue.

WineCountryUA

Welcome to FT!, charmanharman
UA has cancelled all EWR-TLV flights for May and ATHs is one of alternatives the TLV folks are being offered. I would suspect upgrades will be rare in May for ATH and for a non status person, less than rare.

exerda

The list just went visible. Ugh; 10th at the moment, booked 39/50. If this is still the case tomorrow at this time, I may switch to a connection ex-NRT (we're staying closer to NRT anyway since we're visiting friends in Chiba Prefecture on Wednesday)... Heck, DEN and IAH also are PZ>0 at the moment, and DEN looked like it had PZ on the connection back to IAD, too.

I'd call to refare to PE to improve chances, but it's sold out. Will just monitor lists and cross my fingers. PE for 13 hours isn't the end of the world, just disappointing if unable to clear a weekday, otherwise low demand flight as a 1K.

​​​​​

jackk763

Based on this experience, I�m questioning whether I should buy up to Premium Plus on HND-ORD, 7/1, to try to improve odds of Polaris. Party of 3, currently booked in economy and waitlisted for Polaris and Premium Plus (mileage upgrade). I�m a plat. The flight shows P9, PN0, PZ0, O9, A9, R9, RN0. The TOD/buy up to Premium Plus is $299 per person. The call center states we are the only people on the waitlist for Premium Plus or Polaris. The call center claims that if I buy up, and then reapply the mileage upgrade, the copay actually goes up some. Currently booked in U class. I don�t really want to throw more money to United if I don�t have to, but the buy up seems cheap.

VRFast

I would say that is a cheap buy-up considering the length of flight. Personally I would take that upgrade in a NY-minute. Heck, I've paid $399 for a Y to PP upgrade EWR-LHR, much shorter flight.
And you're correct, on a U fare your copay to J would be more, but no copay for upgrade to PP. Does 25k miles sound better than $299 per person?
https://www.united.com/en/us/upgrade-awards