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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Dec 24, 18, 9:02 am
  #616  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA (SFO)
Programs: UA 1K, UA .4 MM, Marriott Gold, Nexus, GE, TSA Pre
Posts: 503
Wednesday, 2-JAN-2019
UA 1742, ORD-SFO, 7:30 PM Departure
B777-200, Version 1, 48 business seats (8 GF / 40 BF)
Booked 25 of 48, with the seat map showing 4 of the 8 GF seats available
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ0
1K + Companion on V fares, waitlisted using RPU's

Chances of upgrade clearing? Chances of this frame being swapped out for one of the retrofitted 772's with Polaris seats?
LRMErnst is offline  
Old Dec 24, 18, 9:19 am
  #617  
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K 1MM; AS MVPG75K; Marriott Titanium; Hilton Diamond (Aspire); Hyatt Refugeeist
Posts: 41,378
Originally Posted by LRMErnst View Post
Wednesday, 2-JAN-2019
UA 1742, ORD-SFO, 7:30 PM Departure
B777-200, Version 1, 48 business seats (8 GF / 40 BF)
Booked 25 of 48, with the seat map showing 4 of the 8 GF seats available
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ0
1K + Companion on V fares, waitlisted using RPU's

Chances of upgrade clearing?
The numbers are encouraging, but ORD-SFO is such a difficult route . . . I would keep my expectations low.
Kacee is offline  
Old Dec 24, 18, 10:10 am
  #618  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: UA 1K, DL PM, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 9,949
With 48F midweek, I'd say you have a fairly decent shot. Polaris swap is something like 50-50; it's whatever the current ratio of 772s is.
findark is offline  
Old Dec 24, 18, 10:39 am
  #619  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
Posts: 3,164
MCO-SFO, TUE in March, Ret. SUN

I've got a 12 day biz trip to SFO and haven't flown through there in 2 years. What are my odds for CPU on the non-stop on a 737-900?
UG being offered for $310-. Any advice on whether I should take it.

Last edited by zombietooth; Dec 25, 18 at 7:49 am
zombietooth is offline  
Old Dec 24, 18, 10:42 am
  #620  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: UA 1K, DL PM, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 9,949
Tuesday CPU odds are always decent, but March is still concerningly close to spring break. I would never expect to CPU a transcon on a Sunday.

$310 is the route fare differential; before accepting you should see if you can simply change the ticket to F for the same price.
findark is offline  
Old Dec 24, 18, 10:46 am
  #621  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton ♦ , Hyatt Carbonado, Wyndham ♦, Marriott PE, "Stinking Bum" elsewhere.
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Originally Posted by findark View Post
Tuesday CPU odds are always decent, but March is still concerningly close to spring break. I would never expect to CPU a transcon on a Sunday.

$310 is the route fare differential; before accepting you should see if you can simply change the ticket to F for the same price.
Thanks so much! I neglected to say I applied an RPU both ways.
zombietooth is offline  
Old Dec 25, 18, 7:20 pm
  #622  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 7
Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
AUS-SFO is a hit-or-miss route. It'll either clear so easily that you would have had a good chance with a CPU, or you'll be sweating it out to the gate (at best). That particular week, I wouldn't expect much business travel due to the holidays, so I'd say your chances are pretty good.

Any updated thoughts on the likelihood of an upgrade as a 1K using an RPU this coming Friday Dec 28 for UA455, AUS-SFO? There seems to be lots of first still available compared to other days this week. If we don't get upgraded at least a few hours before the flight, we may buy an additional economy seat for our toddler and just all stay in coach (would rather not get into a kids flying in first debate here! )

Latest availability is:

J9 JN9 C8 D7 Z7 ZN7 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Thanks!
Tex23 is offline  
Old Dec 25, 18, 8:12 pm
  #623  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: MCO
Programs: UA GS 1MM ★G | DL Silver | Marriott LT Ti | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre &
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Originally Posted by Tex23 View Post
Any updated thoughts on the likelihood of an upgrade as a 1K using an RPU this coming Friday Dec 28 for UA455, AUS-SFO? There seems to be lots of first still available compared to other days this week. If we don't get upgraded at least a few hours before the flight, we may buy an additional economy seat for our toddler and just all stay in coach (would rather not get into a kids flying in first debate here! )

Latest availability is:

J9 JN9 C8 D7 Z7 ZN7 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Thanks!
I think your chances are very good. One thing I could see happening is they oversell Y and block seats in J, making it even more likely you clear as those J seats will be taken out of in entry and awarded to upgrades at the gate .... regardless as 1K with RPUs applied and 9+ seats available, I say chances are good you all clear.
jjmoore is offline  
Old Dec 28, 18, 4:41 pm
  #624  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 57
EWR/AMS chance of GPU clearing?

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to likelihood of this clearing....May 14 outbound- May 19 return. That's a Tuesday/Sunday. w fare. 1k. Could also make this work Wed out/Saturday back. Thanks for any guidance.
jr2009 is offline  
Old Dec 28, 18, 5:18 pm
  #625  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6
United 1k - currently booked on Jan 3rd, SFO to SIN UA29 with W class - GPU currently waitlisted

Currently flight is showing - Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y4 YN4 B4 M4 E4 U4 H3 HN3 Q2 V1 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N4 XN0 X0

showing 25 of 48 Polaris Business booked.

What are the odds of clearing into business as a 1k?

thanks,
dan
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Old Dec 28, 18, 5:58 pm
  #626  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 9,498
Ask again in a couple of months. Too early to predict, although Saturday and Sunday returns will be tougher.
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Old Dec 28, 18, 6:10 pm
  #627  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
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Posts: 1,980
Originally Posted by bannind View Post
United 1k - currently booked on Jan 3rd, SFO to SIN UA29 with W class - GPU currently waitlisted

Currently flight is showing - Available fare classes: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y4 YN4 B4 M4 E4 U4 H3 HN3 Q2 V1 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N4 XN0 X0

showing 25 of 48 Polaris Business booked.

What are the odds of clearing into business as a 1k?

thanks,
dan
I would say good, curious of what others think That's the Thursday flight right. Curious what others think but good luck.
nomad420 is offline  
Old Dec 28, 18, 7:52 pm
  #628  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Programs: UA1k 3mm, HH-LifeDiamond, Mar-LifePlatElite
Posts: 319
So is this normal? been watching for two weeks. Jan8 flight. PN was 2, then 3, then 4, and today it was up to 8, where PZ=0. I'm wondering if something is stuck? Is there a way to call and inquire?


thoughts?



UAgeek71 is offline  
Old Dec 28, 18, 8:28 pm
  #629  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 9,498
Originally Posted by UAgeek71 View Post
...thoughts?...
Pays to be a GS. Or have an upgrade sponsored by one. Those are my thoughts...🙂
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Old Dec 28, 18, 9:25 pm
  #630  
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Originally Posted by UAgeek71 View Post
So is this normal?
It's not abnormal. What would you expect to accomplish by calling? You just have to hope the progression eventually moves to PZ>0.
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