escapefromphl

Well do you know for a fact that the PZ space is opening up before any of those on the waitlist have been processed, it might be after. IME the waitlist is visible about ~70 hours before a flight. But looking at a snapshot then won't necessarily let you know if anyone has been upgraded. You typically just disappear off the upgrade list once upgraded. So the seats sold will increment and available space decrement.

Flyingsquirrel1

Hello! Love the forum, long time lurker.

I'm hoping to get your guidance on chances of clearing our Pluspoints upgrade for the following flight. Specifics:
+ UA 58 (SFO - FRA) on May 30. Fare class S (Economy)
+ United 1K member
+ Pluspoints upgrade to Polaris waitlisted for myself and my wife

Expert mode currently reveals the following for this flight:
J8 JN8 C7 D4 Z2 ZN2 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O8 ON8 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L0 K0 G0 XN9 X0

Thanks in advance!

jsloan

If you're connecting on this itinerary, you need to search just SFO-FRA by itself.

If those are the nonstop numbers, your chances are zero, but I suspect they're not.

Flyingsquirrel1

Thanks for the quick response! Yes, these are the nonstop SFO-FRA numbers.

If you don't mind, could you explain why the chances are zero? I still see 12 open Polaris seats when I search.

zombietooth

There are only 8 seats left in Polaris (J8) and 8 seats in P+ (O8). P1/PN0 is a bad sign, PN0 meaning that there are no GS UGs available, and the algorithm is predicting that they'll sell more seats, either through cash upsells or last-minute purchases. I don't know that your chances are actually zero, but they're very low. Have you waitlisted for P+?

IAH-OIL-TRASH

Almost a month away. Only 8 seats left for sale (seat map means nothing and J8 tells the story). UA will potentially oversell PremiumPlus, and clear oversell into Polaris. They will also upgrade anyone in PremiumPlus wanting upgrades before you. Any GS in coach (or anyone they are sponsoring) looking for upgrades will clear ahead of you. Any 1K on a higher fare basis than your lowly S fare will clear ahead of you. And they can easily sell 8 more Polaris tickets outright in 3 1/2 weeks. Your chances are virtually zero - seriously. And if you're counting on UA releasing upgrade seats in advance - that's not going to happen. Correspondingly, that means virtually 100% chance of sitting in coach, unless you're waitlisted for PremPlus, and even that could be dicey.

Flyingsquirrel1

Thank you for the explanation. This is very helpful.

jsloan

Agreed with all of this -- and I'd just add to it that even if there were 12 seats available in Polaris instead of 8, it wouldn't change my calculation much. Even if they didn't sell another ticket, and didn't sell any discounted buy-ups at check-in, on an S fare, OP might not be in the top 12 of the waitlist on that flight. But the truth is that most long-haul business class travel is purchased within a month of travel; I'd be a bit nervous if there were 24 seats available. 8-12 -- no chance.

caseminole

the flight is now 11 days out, and there are a full 19 seats in Polaris (been a while I've seen that much inventory in Polaris so close to date)

I am booked in Premium Plus, and paid around $350 to get myself on a waitlist.

Any guesses as to whether or not i will get the upgrade?

gfunkdave

June 7, ORD-FRA
Booked in V and using GS Pluspoints to waitlist for P+ and Polaris

• J9
• JN9
• C6
• D2
• Z2
• ZN2
• P2
• PN0
• PZ0
• IN0
• I0
• O8
• ON8
• A0
• R0
• RN0

Warriorconcept

How do you know there are 19 seats available in Polaris? If going by seating chart, it is unreliable to make that assumption. You'll need to enable expert mode and search that route and post what comes up, the most you'll see confirmed as available will be J9.

What route is it, what fare are you in now (A, O, R), and what status are you? All of these will help FT better give you your chances.

caseminole

Yes, I was going by the seating chart itself. I am not sure what expert mode is, I havent used it before!
IAH-EZE
I am in R class (Premium Plus), I paid around $340, and I am Premier Gold

tstauck

Assuming yesterday you said the flight was 11 days out, so as of today, the May 17th flight, here's the inventory for flight 819 (expert mode is a setting you can enable to see the fare inventory):

The P=0, PN=0 isn't great. I'll let the experts chime in on their thoughts for it clearing.

sfo3388

Both LHR-LAX flights leaving Sunday, May 12 have PZ>J. What is the chance to be cleared?

jsloan

Search the flight by itself, without a connection, to see the actual J and PZ values.