Feb 8, 2018, 1:50 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Archive thread
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Related thread -
Ways to search for upgrade space at booking?
Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
Decoding the alphabet soup - fare buckets for UA
Expert Mode Update: better upgrade visibility and opt-in to see fare bucket data.
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Dec 7, 2023, 12:39 pm
#211
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,419
You have to search just for the flight you're interested in, by itself. If this flight were really J8, your odds would be zero, but the J8 is coming from the domestic leg.
You're more optimistic than I am. I'd call it virtually zero if you're at #5/6 with 7 seats left and two days to go.
You're more optimistic than I am. I'd call it virtually zero if you're at #5/6 with 7 seats left and two days to go.
Dec 7, 2023, 12:44 pm
#212
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,029
Dec 7, 2023, 12:58 pm
#213
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DFW
Posts: 112
Just to clarify -- the upgrade is to Polaris, I was just mentioning PremPlus status for additional context -- fewer people in the mix to be ahead for Polaris.
Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?
Dec 7, 2023, 1:21 pm
#214
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
Posts: 6,958
Just to clarify -- the upgrade is to Polaris, I was just mentioning PremPlus status for additional context -- fewer people in the mix to be ahead for Polaris.
Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?
Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?
Good luck.
Dec 7, 2023, 1:40 pm
#215
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,029
Just to clarify -- the upgrade is to Polaris, I was just mentioning PremPlus status for additional context -- fewer people in the mix to be ahead for Polaris.
Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?
Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?
How do you know "fewer people are in the mix" for Polaris"?
Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; Dec 7, 2023 at 1:46 pm
Dec 7, 2023, 1:48 pm
#216
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DFW
Posts: 112
My question is a little different. I want to know if when you waitlist from Economy to BOTH Premium Plus and Polaris when there is in fact Premium Plus upgrade inventory (ON7) -- will you clear into that prior to T-24 and remain on the waitlist for Polaris -- or will you remain on the waitlist for both until it becomes clear that you will or will not get into Polaris and only then go into Premium Plus (if still available). I can see all the loads and agree 836 has the best chance in a vacuum, but 101 is the only one with ON availability now. And this is a discounted UADiscount fare, so the buyup to PremPlus is not cost-effective when I check it.
Dec 7, 2023, 1:54 pm
#217
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DFW
Posts: 112
You have almost zero chance at Polaris seats SFO-SYD. Trying to get there w/ no status from coach is a tough climb. Everyone with status in coach and PremPlus is ahead of you for requested upgrades. It is what it is. Upgrades are not being processed much more than a day in advance for mo9st "waitees". If they are, GS and 1Ks are getting them. I'll say it again - any upgrades you get w/ no status is likely to be the day before departure at the earliest.
How do you know "fewer people are in the mix" for Polaris"?
How do you know "fewer people are in the mix" for Polaris"?
Dec 7, 2023, 1:54 pm
#218
Join Date: Mar 2023
Location: SRQ
Programs: UA 1K, Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 232
I’m leaning on hope. I had a very similar event on last month SFO-MCO redeye. I was like #5 with like 7 seats left. It cleared like t-24. No promises but economy plus is almost empty which is a little bit of a positive sign. Not much I do agree.
Dec 7, 2023, 2:06 pm
#220
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,419
If you waitlist for Premium Plus, you will clear into Premium Plus when / if Premium Plus upgrade inventory opens -- but that's RN, not ON. ON is award inventory, but not upgrade inventory.
Dec 7, 2023, 2:25 pm
#221
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,029
The fewer people in PremPlus the fewer people that are automatically ahead on the upgrade list. In any case, I've flown NRSA (as a son of a former pilot) to Sydney a half dozen times. I've never not gotten a business seat (though twice I called an audible and went through MEL). I think these flights very regularly accommodate all revenue passengers and then some.
Dec 8, 2023, 7:54 am
#222
Join Date: Dec 2023
Posts: 2
Hi! I'm hoping to fly SFO-SIN on January 29, 30, or 31. I am 1K with PP. I've been checking PZ avails and it seems there are a lot for this route in the end of Dec. Does anyone know if they've been opening up PZ space in the month of travel? For example, if I book SFO-SIN in early Jan, will I see a lot more PZ avails when it's within the month? Does anyone have any other tips? Also, if there's PZ confirmable space and I use PP and then have to change my travel, do I get the PP back or do they function like Skip Waitlist PP and are not refundable? Thanks so much for any advice.
Dec 8, 2023, 8:28 am
#223
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,470
Hi! I'm hoping to fly SFO-SIN on January 29, 30, or 31. I am 1K with PP. I've been checking PZ avails and it seems there are a lot for this route in the end of Dec. Does anyone know if they've been opening up PZ space in the month of travel? For example, if I book SFO-SIN in early Jan, will I see a lot more PZ avails when it's within the month? Does anyone have any other tips? Also, if there's PZ confirmable space and I use PP and then have to change my travel, do I get the PP back or do they function like Skip Waitlist PP and are not refundable? Thanks so much for any advice.
SFO-SIN is one of the most difficult routes to clear. If they are far behind on sales, they may open PZ, but don't count on it happening. If you do manage to confirm PZ and then change the flight, you will get the pluspoints back.
Dec 8, 2023, 9:46 am
#224
Join Date: Dec 2023
Posts: 2
Thank you for the response! I'm seeing tons of PZ avails on the SFO-SIN routes in December, though. Is that just bc it's not a popular December destination? Or do you think it's difficult to clear always and December is a fluke? Thanks again.
Dec 8, 2023, 10:11 am
#225
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,419
SIN-SFO and vv almost never have advance PZ. UA tries to sell the seats all the way to departure, and it's a challenging route to clear because absolutely everyone with status will use their PlusPoints on that flight -- it's not like there's a longer route to save them for.