EmailKid

Haven't flown anything but TG C, and it was medium haul, not TPAC, but I for one was underwhelmed by the experience. Perhaps my expectations were too high after posts like chitownflyer and others, but the hard product with lie flat on UA is quite a bit better.

The one and only segment in C on Asiana was a step up, but still hard product not as good as UA lie flat seats.

EmailKid

halls120

LOL, I wish you had been with me in June 2011 when I was on my first pmCO flight, an IAD-EWR-CPH run. Up to this point I had never experienced so many agents pass the buck on a single flight. At check in at IAD when I had a question about the EWR-CPH flight, I was told you'll have to ask in Newark. When I got to Newark, the PC staff couldn't have been more unhelpful. When I got to the gate, the CSR was too busy to help. Then when I got on the plane, the lead attendant got on the PA system to tell us that they had just had a FA removed from the flight to staff another flight, and he apologized in advance for minimal in-flight service.

Yes, many pmUA agents don't yet have the same proficiency with Shares as do their pmCO counterparts, but that's the fault of the airline's leadership.

Since 3/3, I have encountered many fine agents from both pmCO and pmUA, but I've also encountered many lazy pmCO and pmUA who love to say "I'm sorry, the system won't let me do that" instead of actually trying to help.

[Personal attack against another member deleted by Moderator per FT Rules.]

UA-NYC

It will be the single most revealing statistic from the earnings release. Others will flesh out the story, but a PRASM gap vs DL and AA will be telling

dgcpaphd

[Unduly personalized references deleted by Moderator.]

I explained in my earlier post why you are getting your upgrades easier now; You are competing with fewer elites.

If you choose to believe otherwise, good for you.
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sxf24

Actually, the most telling statistic would be domestic yields. US carriers don't release that, so you could look at the quarter-over-quarter change in domestic yields, which would indicate if UA is selling tickets at higher or lower prices. UA had a 3.3% increase in domestic yields during 1Q12. A flat or negative in 2Q12 does not conclusively indicate elites are leaving, but it will certainly raise difficult questions from analysts and investors.

Consolidated PRASM is relevant to overall network health, but is disproportionately impacted by international flights, which in turn are being impacted by economic events. No one in the industry draws far reaching conclusions from one quarter of PRASM numbers, though you're certainly welcome to.

This is what I love about FlyerTalk too.

spin88

I recognize that we are all off in the land of speculation Fastair, but I respectfully think that the opposite of what you suggest is true. Both PM airlines had smaller footprints, and as a result lost certain corporate business, and especially high value business traffic where they did not serve. The merger was sold as being able to capture this traffic (CO passengers doing to asia and the western US would now stay on the carrier, ditto UA passengers to the Europe and South/Central America) PLUS being able to get new corporate accounts. The merger was also sold as being able to "optimize" revenues by putting planes were they were needed and to funnel more traffic into overseas flights.

Cross-fleeting is occurring (putting the seats where they are more effectively sold) and the networks are combined. At this point UA ought to be getting an INCREASE in PRASM as a result of these things.

And as far as IM, as I've noted before there will be around the edges some issues, but given the networks size, I seriously doubt that they are loosing much. Their network is so big that they have been able to adjust as tickets are sold (for example I find connecting on routes I fly via IAH is often cheaper) and this stuff is dynamic. Certainly any IM learning curve is far less of an effect than things I discussed above that were EXPRESSLY SOLD TO THE MARKET AS INCREASING YIELD and ought to be increasing PRASM.

I think that what is happening is that these merger benefits are being swamped by other factors which are costing UA high value traffic. I think the view that "oh we just need to optimize our IM system and much of this will be fixed" is - unfortunately for United employees - simply whistling past the graveyard.

FlyWorld

I was told by AA agent that for a period of several weeks, 100% of her calls, from start to end of day, were status matches to UA flyers.

UA-NYC

So for this airline that's touting its extensive global reach, and relies on paid int'l C/F to make the lion's share of profits - you're saying that domestic yields will be the most telling statistic of all? Wow.

I guess if the analysts know the monthly PRASM numbers, expectations should be baked into the share price already, and we'll only have nominal stock price movement after the earnings release, right? Guess we'll see.

sxf24

If you're trying to determine whether elites are leaving, yes, you would look at the change in domestic yields since the majority of elite passengers are traveling domestically.

Even though I don't agree with the premise of the question, I am trying to be helpful and provide some legitimate insight into what metric you should look at. [Unduly personalized remarks deleted by Moderator.]

dgcpaphd

It is not AA's management that has the severe credibility gap. If the person in charge of AA's elite department says something, I have no reason to doubt it.

On the other hand, with respect to believing something said by UA management, I can only say that UA would not be in litigation with million-mile fliers if they didn't have an issue with telling the truth.

It is true that many who took the AA status match said they had not yet flown AA. However, something is causing the sudden availability of upgrades. A likely reason is fewer elites at UA.
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UA-NYC

There's plenty of analysis to be found on FT - it's how believable you find that analysis based on what's been said on other topics. YMMV.

mmack

Do you have confirmed extension of 2013 GPUs to the end of the year ie Dec2013? Nothing i have seen has suggested this will happen.

spin88

I don't know where you made this up from, if you have a cite, I would like to see it...

I have heard it said that most GS members are international passengers (I'm one of the few, or so I have been told, who is mostly domestic) But I know of nothing UA has ever said on the point. Ditto total elite members, you are probably correct that there are more domestically (just total numbers) but I've never seen anything that says this.

Clearly changes in the MP program will have different effects on both sets of passengers, but then I think for the top elites flying internationally, many also fly domestically. Regardless, I see no reason why one would not look at both domestic and international Loads/profitability metrics to know if the current approach is working. The ability to attract premium traffic is the broader issue, and the complaints/issues don't just effects folks with MP status. The loss of a $10K C fare is a loss, wither its to a MP member or someone who is not.

And since you main point is that international is (so you allege) effected more by international conditions, that is why UA's PRASM is compared to other global airlines (DL and AA). Its the relative spread that one looks at to see how UA is stacking up, not the absolute numbers. I've posted these absolute numbers elsewhere, as you know. No surprise UA is doing poorly compared to other airlines.

obviously if you wanted to see how UA was stacking up to SW or JetBlue or US with its lighter international footprint) then you might look at the domestic PRASM numbers, but I don't think that is your point.

BlackMountain

FWIW, the RASM numbers are posted by the major carriers every month. For June, Delta and AA posted year on year June RASM growth around 8%, United posted growth in the 4-6% range.

I saw a WSJ piece that suggested about 25% of total revenue is from loyalty program fliers; so if you lost very roughly 10% of those customers due to angst, rage, frustration, or whatever and couldn't replace them with an equivalent volume (and by definition, you need a pretty good number of one off, price only, once a year customers to replace one frequent customer that ignores small differences in price or tosses all the "ties" to a single preferred carrier), that volume of lost business very, very roughly accounts for the spread. But, it is a complex problem and I do think it will take some time for this to play out in the numbers.

I will say, that if United doesn't stop booting my over-entitled self out of the exit row on E-145 flights 24-48 hours before departure, they are going to have to incrementally find another 50-70 round trip customers/year to replace me come January.

sxf24

You make some interesting insights. Why should I bother to respond when no one is really interested in reading what I have to say because of something I may have posted in the past.