Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
Local lockdowns in the UK
Jan 20, 2021, 1:31 am
#796
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In England, the December 2020 mortality rate (1,123.6 deaths per 100,000 people) was significantly higher than the mortality rate in every year back to December 2010 (1,151.2 deaths per 100,000 people) but remained significantly lower than December 2003 (the highest mortality rate in this analysis; 1,407.6 deaths per 100,000 people). The mortality rate in December 2020 was 1,339.8 deaths per 100,000 males (compared with 1,674.7 in December 2003) and 950.4 deaths per 100,000 females (compared with 1,217.4 in December 2003).
In Wales, 2003 was also the year with the highest December mortality rate since our data time series began in 2001. Over time, mortality rates in Wales have decreased from 1,470.3 deaths per 100,000 people in December 2003 to a low of 976.3 deaths per 100,000 people in December 2018. Since 2018, the December mortality rate for Wales has increased each year. In December 2020, the mortality rate significantly increased (compared with December 2019) to 1,373.9 deaths per 100,000 people; this increase was seen in both males and females. The December 2020 mortality rate was significantly higher than the mortality rate in every year back to December 2008, and was only significantly lower than December 2003 (the highest December mortality rate in our data time series).
In Wales, 2003 was also the year with the highest December mortality rate since our data time series began in 2001. Over time, mortality rates in Wales have decreased from 1,470.3 deaths per 100,000 people in December 2003 to a low of 976.3 deaths per 100,000 people in December 2018. Since 2018, the December mortality rate for Wales has increased each year. In December 2020, the mortality rate significantly increased (compared with December 2019) to 1,373.9 deaths per 100,000 people; this increase was seen in both males and females. The December 2020 mortality rate was significantly higher than the mortality rate in every year back to December 2008, and was only significantly lower than December 2003 (the highest December mortality rate in our data time series).
Jan 20, 2021, 1:39 am
#797
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Sadly, until the NHS stops being "overwhelmed" we will be locked down. But, our mortality rate for December 2020 is lower than December 2003. Without using Google can anyone remember what happened in 2003? I certainly can't. Nor a lockdown being mentioned at any stage. It's funny how attitudes to mortality seem to have changed. Perhaps we have a generation that believes in immortality? Anyway, what was it in 2003. I am resisting googling it to see if I can remember.
Jan 20, 2021, 2:46 am
#798
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Sadly, until the NHS stops being "overwhelmed" we will be locked down. But, our mortality rate for December 2020 is lower than December 2003. Without using Google can anyone remember what happened in 2003? I certainly can't. Nor a lockdown being mentioned at any stage. It's funny how attitudes to mortality seem to have changed. Perhaps we have a generation that believes in immortality? Anyway, what was it in 2003. I am resisting googling it to see if I can remember.
Extreme high temperatures can also impact on the number of deaths. Notable heatwaves occurred in England in 1976, 1995, and 2003.[39-41] In 1976 there was a significant increase in the annual age-standardised mortality rate for both sexes, and in 1995 and 2003 there was a significant increase for females. These increases were not necessarily related to excess deaths during the heatwaves, however. In 1976, for example, there was also an intense flu season and some very cold spells.[94,95] During the 2003 heatwave, there was a 17% increase in deaths, resulting in 2,091 additional deaths in England.[41] Despite this increase in deaths over the heatwave period, it had little effect on the total number of deaths that year.
Looking at the rest of the report it seems that the annual death rate has been falling year on year from 2003 to 2020, so it might not just be that year but every year from 2003!
Last edited by antichef; Jan 20, 2021 at 2:53 am
Jan 20, 2021, 2:52 am
#799
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A good question. It'll rise undoubtedly. By how much over "normal" or "average", and how it compares we are all going to have to wait and see. I only look at the ONS data. But, ~78,000 a year die of smoking and smoking related illnesses on average per year. Yet cigarettes are still on sale. I see little in the way of any preventative measures as rigorous as what we face now, merely "educayshun". I am very interested in how the figures will look in 5 years time when undiagnosed, misdiagnosed, mental health, education, and economic factors work themselves into the figures. Up until this I had only ever known 3 people (from 1974) that had committed suicide. Since September I have known 3, directly attributable to the current reality.
Jan 20, 2021, 2:56 am
#800
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From an ONS report, a heatwave:
Extreme high temperatures can also impact on the number of deaths. Notable heatwaves occurred in England in 1976, 1995, and 2003.[39-41] In 1976 there was a significant increase in the annual age-standardised mortality rate for both sexes, and in 1995 and 2003 there was a significant increase for females. These increases were not necessarily related to excess deaths during the heatwaves, however. In 1976, for example, there was also an intense flu season and some very cold spells.[94,95] During the 2003 heatwave, there was a 17% increase in deaths, resulting in 2,091 additional deaths in England.[41] Despite this increase in deaths over the heatwave period, it had little effect on the total number of deaths that year.
Looking at the rest of the report it seems that the annual death rate has been falling year on year from 2003 to 2020, so it might not just be that year but every year from 2003! But, I am not sure we had a heatwave in December 2003 which the ONS data I cited specifically referred to. The only thing I recall from winter/autumn 2003 is England winning the Rugby World Cup (perhaps I was still hungover from celebrating). I just cannot recall what happened in December 2003.
Jan 20, 2021, 4:31 am
#801
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Ok, I shall have to mark you down on this test for using Google. But, I am not sure we had a heatwave in December 2003 which the ONS data I cited specifically referred to. The only thing I recall from winter/autumn 2003 is England winning the Rugby World Cup (perhaps I was still hungover from celebrating). I just cannot recall what happened in December 2003.
But, I am not sure we had a heatwave in December 2003 which the ONS data I cited specifically referred to. The only thing I recall from winter/autumn 2003 is England winning the Rugby World Cup (perhaps I was still hungover from celebrating). I just cannot recall what happened in December 2003.
Jan 20, 2021, 4:47 am
#802
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Sadly, until the NHS stops being "overwhelmed" we will be locked down. But, our mortality rate for December 2020 is lower than December 2003. Without using Google can anyone remember what happened in 2003? I certainly can't. Nor a lockdown being mentioned at any stage. It's funny how attitudes to mortality seem to have changed. Perhaps we have a generation that believes in immortality? Anyway, what was it in 2003. I am resisting googling it to see if I can remember.
The impact of lockdown measures on 2020 statistics (cf KARFA, above, on the likely level of unsuppressed death rate)
Hospitals are overwhelmed in 2020 not because of the number of deaths, but because of the volume of work required to prevent death. Using success in this endeavour to undermine the extreme stress apparent in the healthcare system seems carelessly cynical.
To better understand why hospitals are heading towards being overwhelmed, it would be useful to consider
the number of hospital admissions and the lengths of stay
the level of demand for intensively staffed ICU beds
reduced staffing of wards due to sickness and death among healthcare professionals, and their requirement to isolate
Jan 20, 2021, 5:41 am
#803
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The 2003 heatwave is well known and remembered, the excess deaths were talked about in news as headlines. It led in France to action which are still taken to this day. It is a vivid memory for a lot of people and no need to Google it.
Jan 20, 2021, 8:11 am
#804
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Sadly, until the NHS stops being "overwhelmed" we will be locked down. But, our mortality rate for December 2020 is lower than December 2003. Without using Google can anyone remember what happened in 2003? I certainly can't. Nor a lockdown being mentioned at any stage. It's funny how attitudes to mortality seem to have changed. Perhaps we have a generation that believes in immortality? Anyway, what was it in 2003. I am resisting googling it to see if I can remember.
Jan 20, 2021, 8:58 am
#805
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Your "analysis" ignores a number of crucial elements:
The impact of lockdown measures on 2020 statistics (cf KARFA, above, on the likely level of unsuppressed death rate)
Hospitals are overwhelmed in 2020 not because of the number of deaths, but because of the volume of work required to prevent death. Using success in this endeavour to undermine the extreme stress apparent in the healthcare system seems carelessly cynical.
To better understand why hospitals are heading towards being overwhelmed, it would be useful to consider
The impact of lockdown measures on 2020 statistics (cf KARFA, above, on the likely level of unsuppressed death rate)
Hospitals are overwhelmed in 2020 not because of the number of deaths, but because of the volume of work required to prevent death. Using success in this endeavour to undermine the extreme stress apparent in the healthcare system seems carelessly cynical.
To better understand why hospitals are heading towards being overwhelmed, it would be useful to consider
the number of hospital admissions and the lengths of stay
the level of demand for intensively staffed ICU beds
reduced staffing of wards due to sickness and death among healthcare professionals, and their requirement to isolate
Jan 20, 2021, 9:00 am
#806
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Let me get my crayons out and point this out again: December 2003, northern hemisphere, England and Wales. What heatwave did we have in December 2003? I most definitely do not remember one, I remember the heatwaves. 1976, Hayling Island, sunstroke, I certainly remember that one!
Jan 20, 2021, 9:05 am
#807
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I feel for you with the UK lockdown. It is useless and is doing nothing to knock down numbers. Too little, too late while your merchants' shops are closing left and right.
The new new infection case rate (per 100,000 people) in Florida (open) is the same, if not LOWER than California (closed).
All experts agree lockdown early in the game would have made a difference (which explains why SFO is way lower infection rates than LA county) but now the virus is everywhere.
The UK lockdown is utterly useless and meaningless.
The new new infection case rate (per 100,000 people) in Florida (open) is the same, if not LOWER than California (closed).
All experts agree lockdown early in the game would have made a difference (which explains why SFO is way lower infection rates than LA county) but now the virus is everywhere.
The UK lockdown is utterly useless and meaningless.
Jan 20, 2021, 10:43 am
#808
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Ok, I shall have to mark you down on this test for using Google. But, I am not sure we had a heatwave in December 2003 which the ONS data I cited specifically referred to. The only thing I recall from winter/autumn 2003 is England winning the Rugby World Cup (perhaps I was still hungover from celebrating). I just cannot recall what happened in December 2003.
But, I am not sure we had a heatwave in December 2003 which the ONS data I cited specifically referred to. The only thing I recall from winter/autumn 2003 is England winning the Rugby World Cup (perhaps I was still hungover from celebrating). I just cannot recall what happened in December 2003.Perhaps you went on holiday somewhere cooler than the UK, like the Caribbean or a Safari in Africa that year and missed it?
The Met Office have it as a case study:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...stands%20today.
Jan 20, 2021, 10:48 am
#809
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Let me get my crayons out and point this out again: December 2003, northern hemisphere, England and Wales. What heatwave did we have in December 2003? I most definitely do not remember one, I remember the heatwaves. 1976, Hayling Island, sunstroke, I certainly remember that one!
The annual statistics are as at 30th December. It is not that there was a heatwave in December but the annual figures are from 1 January to 30 December.
Jan 20, 2021, 1:52 pm
#810
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The 7 day average has dropped from 59k to 43k in just over a week. Maybe check your facts before posting.