Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
Local lockdowns in the UK
Jan 22, 2021, 8:33 am
#857
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I'm happy to say my mom got her 1st jab yesterday in Ashford (Oxford vaccine). The second one was scheduled....12 weeks out!? Is this what you are referring to? They are trying to get as many 1st jabs in as possible?
Jan 22, 2021, 8:35 am
#858
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I'm sorry you feel Priti Patel should not still be employed. (Sorry, running joke...)
She's Home Secretary, and has little to do with setting the restrictions - rather with how they are enforced. The government's MO at the moment seems to be to have a single cabinet spokesperson doing the rounds on one day, usually picked due to relevance to a particular issue. They will appear on multiple news outlets, answer questions on subjects outwith their portfolio, and either toe the line or give a non-answer.
Absolutely no fan of Patel, but I sincerely doubt she is out to crumble companies with Covid restrictions. You keep repeating an assertion that restrictions at this point in the game are useless, but the stats showing falling cases (over 10000 down over last week) would appear to indicate otherwise. Lockdown isn't going to eradicate the virus, but preventing the health service from reaching total saturation will stop an even more significant rise in the death rate (which will be expected to lag the case rate by a couple of weeks).
With the vaccination programme going on in parallel, the idea is delay as many cases as possible so that some form of immunity can become more widespread.
IMO, they're betting an awful lot on the vaccine. And the delay of the second jag is pretty reckless. However, I don't think you can assert that restrictions are pointless, even if their effectivess isn't as strong or quick as you may hope.
She's Home Secretary, and has little to do with setting the restrictions - rather with how they are enforced. The government's MO at the moment seems to be to have a single cabinet spokesperson doing the rounds on one day, usually picked due to relevance to a particular issue. They will appear on multiple news outlets, answer questions on subjects outwith their portfolio, and either toe the line or give a non-answer.
Absolutely no fan of Patel, but I sincerely doubt she is out to crumble companies with Covid restrictions. You keep repeating an assertion that restrictions at this point in the game are useless, but the stats showing falling cases (over 10000 down over last week) would appear to indicate otherwise. Lockdown isn't going to eradicate the virus, but preventing the health service from reaching total saturation will stop an even more significant rise in the death rate (which will be expected to lag the case rate by a couple of weeks).
With the vaccination programme going on in parallel, the idea is delay as many cases as possible so that some form of immunity can become more widespread.
IMO, they're betting an awful lot on the vaccine. And the delay of the second jag is pretty reckless. However, I don't think you can assert that restrictions are pointless, even if their effectivess isn't as strong or quick as you may hope.
Jan 22, 2021, 9:39 am
#859
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The government very clearly said they will only review whats going on 15 February, and it won't be all at once. So beginning of March is when they will start to be lightened according to their plan. Everything else than that (lockdown forever, autumn, summer hotels, mutant strains killing us all, it's all speculation so it's a waste of time and just coffeeshop gossip).
I am listening to the govt right now; "priority to vaccinate as many people as fast as possible". Nothing else is under consideration at this stage.
I am listening to the govt right now; "priority to vaccinate as many people as fast as possible". Nothing else is under consideration at this stage.
Jan 22, 2021, 10:24 am
#860
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That is a bit of an oversimplification but is about as simple as I can put it in a few sentences!
Jan 22, 2021, 10:55 am
#861
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Reading between the lines with an answer to a journalist this afternoon on the number 10 briefing by BoJo expressly probed on whether "tougher border measures are being considered", he responded that "he could not rule it out". The main concern driving the decision about borders is whether the vaccine program could be defeated by variants of the virus such as those first detected in South Africa and Brazil.
Last edited by plunet; Jan 22, 2021 at 11:39 am
Jan 22, 2021, 12:20 pm
#862
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Reading between the lines with an answer to a journalist this afternoon on the number 10 briefing by BoJo expressly probed on whether "tougher border measures are being considered", he responded that "he could not rule it out". The main concern driving the decision about borders is whether the vaccine program could be defeated by variants of the virus such as those first detected in South Africa and Brazil.
Jan 22, 2021, 4:02 pm
#863
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There are far too many arrivals into the UK for hotel quarantines. The only way it would work is if they limit it to the 'banned' countries. Also I dont think the UK can afford to keep its border closed for 2 years like Australia and NZ does, as strains will always be around. It's not a sustainable policy by any means. The GPS tracker thing is a joke, it's against the law completely (many lawsuits) and would be a total mess as well.
What they said about 'banning foreigners' is easier to do. But even that would be a mess.
I'm sure they'll figure out something to make the border 'stricter', but as you can see they aren't managing it well with all those queues.
If the hotel thing was so easy they would have already done it. Clearly they realise that implementing it will be close to impossible. Are they going to close the channel as well? What about the truckers entering the country? Eurostar? Airports? All that hotel?
Australia, Singapore and NZ have FAR less arrivals than the UK with or without covid, and they are much much more isolated, so much easier to do. The UK is far too international for hotel quarantines, their best shot is stricter checks or tests upon arrival into the UK in addition to PCR before departure. If you test positive, then you go to hotel.
Last edited by ahmetdouas; Jan 22, 2021 at 4:08 pm
Jan 22, 2021, 4:08 pm
#864
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There are far too many arrivals into the UK for hotel quarantines. The only way it would work is if they limit it to the 'banned' countries. Also I dont think the UK can afford to keep its border closed for 2 years like Australia and NZ does, as strains will always be around. It's not a sustainable policy by any means.
I hope it doesn't happen. If quarantine rules get any stricter than they are now, BA and the travel industry here in the UK are done. The current restrictions are likely to continue till possibly late summer at best - and this has crippled the travel industry. Hotel quarantine will finish it off I fear.
Last edited by HB7; Jan 22, 2021 at 4:09 pm Reason: Spelling error
Jan 22, 2021, 4:10 pm
#865
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What you're saying logically makes sense. But this government has been a shambles. I hope it doesn't happen. If quarantine rules get any stricter than they are now, BA and the travel industry here in the UK is done. The current restrictions are likely to continue till possibly late summer at best - and this has crippled the travel industry. Hotel quarantine will finish it off I fear.
Banning foreigners is the easiest option (no infastructure needed) , but also an economic disaster.
Also if you close borders, for how long for? Coronavirus isn't going anywhere, neither is 'mutant strains'.
I will never forget watching Prof Johan Gieske of Sweden when he laughed at the Australian border controls. He literally said, sure you limit transmission and protect your population. Then what? Stay closed for 30 years?
The media seem completely lost about it, and the government is not saying anything. Clearly they can't figure it out or realise what a mess it all is.
Jan 22, 2021, 4:22 pm
#866
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They can make hotel quarantines possible by saying things like test positive on arrival you go to hotel quarantine.
Banning foreigners is the easiest option (no infastructure needed) , but also an economic disaster.
Also if you close borders, for how long for? Coronavirus isn't going anywhere, neither is 'mutant strains'.
I will never forget watching Prof Johan Gieske of Sweden when he laughed at the Australian border controls. He literally said, sure you limit transmission and protect your population. Then what? Stay closed for 30 years?
The media seem completely lost about it, and the government is not saying anything. Clearly they can't figure it out or realise what a mess it all is.
Banning foreigners is the easiest option (no infastructure needed) , but also an economic disaster.
Also if you close borders, for how long for? Coronavirus isn't going anywhere, neither is 'mutant strains'.
I will never forget watching Prof Johan Gieske of Sweden when he laughed at the Australian border controls. He literally said, sure you limit transmission and protect your population. Then what? Stay closed for 30 years?
The media seem completely lost about it, and the government is not saying anything. Clearly they can't figure it out or realise what a mess it all is.
Last edited by HB7; Jan 22, 2021 at 4:23 pm Reason: Addition
Jan 22, 2021, 5:01 pm
#867
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It seems like we will know next week about hotel quarantine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55774380
Jan 22, 2021, 5:06 pm
#868
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Yes, the thinking is that 90% of the deaths are occurring in the first few vulnerable groups to be vaccinated - which includes your mum. They reckon that with the first jab you mainly avoid catching the bug but also have a reduced severity even if you do catch the bug because it is only about 80% effective (or so), so they are trying to give as many people as possible in the very vulnerable groups a first jab as that will reduce the overall death rate as well as reducing the need for intensive care for very sick people and thus additionally reduce the pressure on all hospitals.
Israel's raced ahead in partnership with the manufacturer to immunise around 75% of their target older group . This "real-life", Israeli population study, has yielded initial results of 33% protection from the first dose rather than the (up to) 90% suggested by PHE. Indeed the UK view was significantly more bullish than that that suggested by Pfizer's, based on its clinical trials.
Israel is following Pfizers recommendation of a three-week interval between doses, so their programme isn't going to give any insight into protection offered beyond the 21st day of the three month interval the UK went out on a limb to select. Pfizer can't help with data on the efficacy of a single dose beyond 21 days, so it looks like we're batting blind.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217
"Concerns have been raised over how much protection a single dose of the Pfizer BioNTech covid-19 vaccine provides, following reports from Israel that it is much lower than expected".
Jan 22, 2021, 6:34 pm
#869
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80% would be great...but news about Israel's experience with the Pfizer vaccine doesn't make comfortable reading for our government and its advisors, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and Public Health England (PHE)..
Israel's raced ahead in partnership with the manufacturer to immunise around 75% of their target older group . This "real-life", Israeli population study, has yielded initial results of 33% protection from the first dose rather than the (up to) 90% suggested by PHE. Indeed the UK view was significantly more bullish than that that suggested by Pfizer's, based on its clinical trials.
Israel is following Pfizers recommendation of a three-week interval between doses, so their programme isn't going to give any insight into protection offered beyond the 21st day of the three month interval the UK went out on a limb to select. Pfizer can't help with data on the efficacy of a single dose beyond 21 days, so it looks like we're batting blind.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217
"Concerns have been raised over how much protection a single dose of the Pfizer BioNTech covid-19 vaccine provides, following reports from Israel that it is much lower than expected".
Israel's raced ahead in partnership with the manufacturer to immunise around 75% of their target older group . This "real-life", Israeli population study, has yielded initial results of 33% protection from the first dose rather than the (up to) 90% suggested by PHE. Indeed the UK view was significantly more bullish than that that suggested by Pfizer's, based on its clinical trials.
Israel is following Pfizers recommendation of a three-week interval between doses, so their programme isn't going to give any insight into protection offered beyond the 21st day of the three month interval the UK went out on a limb to select. Pfizer can't help with data on the efficacy of a single dose beyond 21 days, so it looks like we're batting blind.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217
"Concerns have been raised over how much protection a single dose of the Pfizer BioNTech covid-19 vaccine provides, following reports from Israel that it is much lower than expected".
Jan 22, 2021, 6:48 pm
#870
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It was quite interesting to discuss this with the old man (age 74). He has flipped from wanting the cutting edge vaccine tech to wanting Oxford/Astra Zeneca instead. Why? Well as far as he can tell, while cutting edge seems to give better protection once bedded into the body, the more traditional approach seems to stop you getting sick sooner. I have the same bias. It probably started with a patriotic bias but now seems to be resolving to something more rational. What Pfizer came up with is probably the future though.