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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Oct 15, 2020, 7:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

Old Jan 14, 2021, 10:08 am
  #781  
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Originally Posted by NWIFlyer
If you truly want to contain the ability of the virus to spread and mutate as quickly as possible, personally I'd have thought the answer was clear. That's equally why processing people 24/7 is important - with the current rate of spread, every day gained is important.
Exactly - every minute counts. Vaccinate people around the clock. If you finish all frontline medical workers, move on to essential workers. When they are done, move down the priority groups. We need mass vaccinations quickly. If supply is an issue, fix it! According to Matt Hancock - who said this on GMB yesterday, there is no issue with supply for the 14 million by mid-Feb. But we are no where near the rate we need to be - so what is the issue? And why are journalists not asking this?
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Old Jan 14, 2021, 11:25 am
  #782  
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Originally Posted by stut
I've seen a number of virologists express their discomfort with the delayed second dose, though. Having a significant population with partial vaccine-based immunity to a mutating virus could be considered a risk for a drug-resistant mutation.
I'm sure there's also a measure of discomfort among members of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, the organisation that authorised the wide shift away from the recommendations of the manufacturer.

Pfizer's trial looked at the effectiveness of administrating the vaccine in two doses separated by between 19 and 41 days. Their final recommendation was for 21 days, suggesting the analysis of the data generated in the trials indicated that interval as the optimum. Stretching the time between doses to nine weeks beyond that interval, to fully six weeks beyond even the maximum value of interval contemplated for testing by the manufacturer, seems heroic.

Clearly, empirical data that might give robust statistical support to the decision of the JCVI does not exist: if it did, Pfizer would have conducted the analysis.

It's unlikely the effect of the significant shift away from the recommended interval between doses will be null. Common sense isn't always a good guide in matters scientific, but if 21-days gave the best result in a range of intervals between 19-days and 41-days, it's not unreasonable to expect the efficacy of the treatment based on an 84-day interval will be somehow degraded.

The analysis of the JCVI has focussed on the community benefit of extending the dose interval from three weeks to twelve weeks. This has been set against potential disbenefit to the individual. Officialdom has been largely silent on the "setting against" aspect of the decision. There will be nervousness as follow-up data flow in on outcomes of the treatments administered.
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 2:31 am
  #783  
 
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The Telegraph, on its front page article today (you can sort-of-read it on the BBC front page summary here) is saying that PHE's data is now showing that most outbreaks are happening in care homes and that vaccinations are running very slowly in that environment (the article claims 10x slower than in the wider community).

If all this is true I can't help but feeling that the lockwdown is a bit like the Maginot line and care homes are the Low Countries.
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 4:48 am
  #784  
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Originally Posted by 13901
The Telegraph, on its front page article today (you can sort-of-read it on the BBC front page summary here) is saying that PHE's data is now showing that most outbreaks are happening in care homes and that vaccinations are running very slowly in that environment (the article claims 10x slower than in the wider community).

If all this is true I can't help but feeling that the lockwdown is a bit like the Maginot line and care homes are the Low Countries.
There were serious logistical challenges in administering the Pfizer vaccine in care homes, but these challenges faded with the Glaxo vaccine.

The obfuscation surrounding whatever is limiting clinical delivery of the vaccine is troubling. Bruiser Zahawi is not quite so nimble on his feet as Hancock, and there have been inconsistencies in the explanations they offer.

They have been slow to involve pharmacists, and to adopt 24/7 regimes: so it's not surprising that peripatetic administration of treatment has been slow getting off the ground. It's not clear if this reluctance to pull out the stops is down to general incompetence of central control or limits to the rate of vaccine supply.
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 6:00 am
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What troubles me the most is the fact, as the article quoting PHE seem to suggest, that the bulk of outbreaks are still happening in care homes. If I'm reading that well it sort of cuts the legs of the lockdown...
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 7:05 am
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Originally Posted by 13901
The Telegraph, on its front page article today (you can sort-of-read it on the BBC front page summary here) is saying that PHE's data is now showing that most outbreaks are happening in care homes
This is not true unless you disbelieve the UK government published data https://assets.publishing.service.go...port_w2_V2.pdf

Pg 27 COVID-19 cases by type of residence, latest week 01 and prior week 53 in backets
91.2% (93.2%) in residential dwellings
3.3% (2.2%) in care/nursing homes

So not only is there only a modest increase in nursing and care home based reported cases but the vast majority of reported cases remain in residential settings at outset.

Pg 22 Number of acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents by institution England does show the majority of ARI outbreak reports are from care homes but the ratio has not significantly changed since Week 27 whilst the incident rate has risen nearly 10 fold which is likely down to the move to more (weekly) testing of staff as the report relates to the institution not the status of the reported case(s).
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 7:12 am
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Originally Posted by UKTony
This is not true unless you disbelieve the UK government published data https://assets.publishing.service.go...port_w2_V2.pdf

Pg 27 COVID-19 cases by type of residence, latest week 01 and prior week 53 in backets
91.2% (93.2%) in residential dwellings
3.3% (2.2%) in care/nursing homes

So not only is there only a modest increase in nursing and care home based reported cases but the vast majority of reported cases remain in residential settings at outset.

Pg 22 Number of acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents by institution England does show the majority of ARI outbreak reports are from care homes but the ratio has not significantly changed since Week 27 whilst the incident rate has risen nearly 10 fold which is likely down to the move to more (weekly) testing of staff as the report relates to the institution not the status of the reported case(s).
Glad that's not the case, here is what the Telegraph was reporting on the front page:



Glad to read it's not the case...
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Old Jan 15, 2021, 7:17 am
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Originally Posted by UKTony
Pg 27 COVID-19 cases by type of residence, latest week 01 and prior week 53 in backets
91.2% (93.2%) in residential dwellings
3.3% (2.2%) in care/nursing homes
This is one of the cases where you need to be very careful with your understanding of percentages and what they represent. What is the proportion of the UK population living in care homes? If it's 0.5% then we're looking at significantly higher incidence in care homes than in other dwellings.

ETA: the MHA makes an assumption of about 418,000 people in care homes. That means that 0.63% of the population make up 3.3% of the cases, so incidence is just over 5 times higher than in the general population. Granted, they probably get tested more, but it's still significant.

MHA source: https://www.mha.org.uk/news/policy-influencing/facts-stats/

Last edited by alex67500; Jan 15, 2021 at 7:28 am
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Old Jan 17, 2021, 11:06 am
  #789  
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Originally Posted by HB7
Exactly - every minute counts. Vaccinate people around the clock. If you finish all frontline medical workers, move on to essential workers. When they are done, move down the priority groups. We need mass vaccinations quickly. If supply is an issue, fix it! According to Matt Hancock - who said this on GMB yesterday, there is no issue with supply for the 14 million by mid-Feb. But we are no where near the rate we need to be - so what is the issue? And why are journalists not asking this?
I read an article in the Wasington Post a couple of days ago.

Pfizer have found an alternative way to manufacture the vaccine that will increase production but implementing it will cause a short term drop in the number they can make using the current method.
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Old Jan 17, 2021, 12:10 pm
  #790  
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Originally Posted by UKtravelbear
I read an article in the Wasington Post a couple of days ago.

Pfizer have found an alternative way to manufacture the vaccine that will increase production but implementing it will cause a short term drop in the number they can make using the current method.
This I think will affect European nations more than the UK in terms of vaccinations being done. It will unfortunately delay us here in the UK wanting to travel to Europe because I imagine European nations will now want their vulnerable populations vaccinated prior to allowing UK visitors or visitors from countries with high numbers.
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Old Jan 19, 2021, 11:08 am
  #791  
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Scotland - minor change in Levels for one area
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2.../contents/made
In effect from 20 January

All of Na h-Eileanan Siar was Level 3. Change is that Isle of Barra and the Isle of Vatersay are being raised to Level 4, with the remainder of Na h-Eileanan Siar staying at Level 3.

Wonder if there is anyone from Barra or Vatersay reading this? I guess it gives my an excuse to post this at least:

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Last edited by KARFA; Jan 19, 2021 at 11:16 am
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Old Jan 19, 2021, 6:31 pm
  #792  
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Originally Posted by KARFA
Scotland - minor change in Levels for one area
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2.../contents/made
In effect from 20 January

All of Na h-Eileanan Siar was Level 3.
Perhaps slightly better known in the wider world as the Outer Hebrides
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Old Jan 19, 2021, 8:41 pm
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Daily Mail saying lockdown to continue until Easter! What happened to the mid February review promised? It's never ending.
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Old Jan 19, 2021, 11:10 pm
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Originally Posted by paulaf
Daily Mail saying lockdown to continue until Easter! What happened to the mid February review promised? It's never ending.
Governments do not give up power easily.
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Old Jan 20, 2021, 1:00 am
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Originally Posted by paulaf
Daily Mail saying lockdown to continue until Easter! What happened to the mid February review promised? It's never ending.
1,600 people were confirmed dead and 33,000 were positives yesterday (and the legislation is valid until end of March), almost 40,000 hospitalisations. I'm not exactly sure how you can expect this to end by February...
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