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Local lockdowns in the UK

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Old Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

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Old Feb 23, 2021, 4:45 am
  #1606  
 
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Originally Posted by paulaf
Exactly most MOP can't work it out that the longer lockdown goes on the more it will cost them in taxes in the long run.
And a few on this forum can't seem to see that the problem is not the lockdown but the pandemic. Lifting lockdown too quickly risks a resurgence of the virus, a third wave and a fourth national lockdown, which would be utterly disastrous.

Risking losing everything we have worked towards and sacrificed so much for for the sake of a few weeks would be foolish.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 4:51 am
  #1607  
 
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Originally Posted by HB7
Exactly. Maybe when people see their pay packet after the increase in taxes we are going to be hit with, they will change their mind.
I doubt that income tax rises will be anything like enough. Just about the only thing the young and unemployed have to smile about is that they with no jobs will not be paying for it that way. Other taxes may come into play. But there will have to be cuts to public spending. Austerity 2.0 will be a major upgrade on 1.0. Will the NHS be spared cuts? Public opinion may not be so understanding come the next election.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 5:33 am
  #1608  
 
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Originally Posted by HB7
No one said people posting here provide a representative view.
But they did suggest the YouGov poll was somehow flawed or nor representative. It may well be, and people can be fickle, but my point was simply that’s it’s a lot more relevant barometer than Flyertalk.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 5:49 am
  #1609  
 
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Originally Posted by Confus
Very true, but in this case I do think the polls are broadly right - of course as long as the Treasury plays ball next week, but all signs show they will. If I look at my focus group of one... and my list of priorities:
  1. some kind of local openings to allow me not to feel quite so stuck in my home
  2. seeing more than one friend in person
  3. seeing my family (I live in a part of the country far away from them so this necessitates an overnight stay)
  4. [big gap]
  5. business trips and holidays
For some of us with family abroad, 3 comes after 5, so yesterday's announcements weren't much of a relief in that sense. Zoom can only bridge so much (which is why I think some business travel will recover pretty quickly, but the more "convenient" and "team spirit" ones won't).

But I'm also aware that the "greater good" needs to prevail, and whilst I'm happy with the number of deaths plummeting, there are still deaths, and actual people dying - we tend to forget that sometimes when we post here. What was even more disheartening for me yesterday were disappointing vaccination figures. I would literally take days off work to drive people to vaccination centres if it meant that could go faster.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 5:50 am
  #1610  
 
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The Guardian nicely sums up the limitations and usefulness of a snap opinion poll.
Snap polls aren’t a perfect way of measuring public opinion - they involve people being asked about events that have only just happened, many respondents will not have read beyond a headline, and no one will have had time to mull it over properly - but they are better than nothing, and, on Covid at least, certainly a more reliable guide than newspaper front pages. (Many newspapers suggest Britain is clamouring to end the lockdown, when in fact the survey evidence suggests the opposite is the case.)
It is, of course, absolutely true that "no one will have had time to mull it over properly", but that goes for people here on this forum as much as it does the general public.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 6:43 am
  #1611  
 
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Originally Posted by Misco60
And a few on this forum can't seem to see that the problem is not the lockdown but the pandemic. Lifting lockdown too quickly risks a resurgence of the virus, a third wave and a fourth national lockdown, which would be utterly disastrous.

Risking losing everything we have worked towards and sacrificed so much for for the sake of a few weeks would be foolish.
The pandemic keeps on coming back because there are people still susceptible to COVID (e.g the anti Vax crowd). It’s not a case of “if” but “when”. It’s not clear how big this peak will be, but it’s unlikely that lockdowns will change it.

We’ve had some of the most extreme restrictions in the western world and quite frankly we’ve got nothing to show for it.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 6:58 am
  #1612  
 
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Originally Posted by cauchy

We’ve had some of the most extreme restrictions in the western world and quite frankly we’ve got nothing to show for it.
Yes and the best vaccine rollout in Europe and probably the slowest "roadmap" despite stunning vaccine results, go figure. Why can't the dates on the roadmap be moved forward only backward if we're following the data, hypocritical?
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:07 am
  #1613  
 
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Originally Posted by paulaf
Why can't the dates on the roadmap be moved forward only backward if we're following the data, hypocritical?
It's because the government's scientific advisors have said that there must be a gap of at least 5 weeks between phases: 4 weeks to determine whether the virus is still under control and a week to prepare for the next phase.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:13 am
  #1614  
 
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Originally Posted by Misco60
It's because the government's scientific advisors have said that there must be a gap of at least 5 weeks between phases: 4 weeks to determine whether the virus is still under control and a week to prepare for the next phase.
Yes but we can all see the data daily hopefully getting better, we won't need fancy graphs to decide for ourselves.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:17 am
  #1615  
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Originally Posted by southlondonphil
Which is why basing policy decisions upon it is not wise

<OMNI>
viz. Brexit
</OMNI>
Which kept us out of the organization's vaccine fiasco.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:19 am
  #1616  
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Originally Posted by paulaf
Yes but we can all see the data daily hopefully getting better, we won't need fancy graphs to decide for ourselves.
Agree. So does he:

We cannot cancel life to preserve every life
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:21 am
  #1617  
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Originally Posted by Confus
Very true, but in this case I do think the polls are broadly right - of course as long as the Treasury plays ball next week, but all signs show they will. If I look at my focus group of one... and my list of priorities:
  1. some kind of local openings to allow me not to feel quite so stuck in my home
  2. seeing more than one friend in person
  3. seeing my family (I live in a part of the country far away from them so this necessitates an overnight stay)
  4. [big gap]
  5. business trips and holidays
Now while in many ways I consider myself ‘positively abnormal’... but in this I really don’t think I’m alone. If delaying (5) allows (3) to happen unhindered, and speaking as someone who’s been alone for nearly a year, it’s worth it. This time has made me for one appreciate what the most important things are. I suspect if you asked the entire population, a majority would agree.
I think this is probably fair enough for much of the population but, for a very significant minority, 3 can only happen after 5. And this is the crux of the issue - opinion polls can lead to the tyranny of minorities by majorities. Good government is about balancing these competing interests. If you ask people whether people should go on business trips and holiday before they can see their dying mother, you will get one answer. And that's because most people's mothers are not abroad - but a very large proportion of Londoners' mothers are abroad.

This is why the travel ban is so fundamentally wrong - allow people to go if they feel they need to but require them to pay for tests or quarantine or whatever on the return. It amounts to much the same thing for most people but is fundamentally different when it comes to an annual trip to see family.

Also, these questions were framed in the context of the majority believing that they would still be allowed to go on holiday. If you made it clear that this was not the case, and that because their company cannot continue to do business without seeing its overseas customers and therefore they would lose their jobs, they might have a different view.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:33 am
  #1618  
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Originally Posted by 13901
Question for our friends north of the border: has Nicola agreed to the plan to authorise overnight domestic travel from 12/04? Or is it today that they are going to look into it?
end of April at the earliest it seems, possibly later.
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:39 am
  #1619  
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Without wanting to open up the can of worms regarding enforcement risk, etc. again - given this is a place for information - I will note that a family member traversed T5 this afternoon and was not questioned with respect to reason of travel (note she is a non-resident returning to the US on a US passport so there was no issue or concern on our part).
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Old Feb 23, 2021, 7:46 am
  #1620  
 
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A colleague has a family holiday booked in Scotland, early April. Sorry, I meant had! A retiree I vaguely know has a cruise booked for early May. Snap! I'm glad I chickened out of booking Lanzarote, early June. Or should I be? It was dirt cheap at the time, but I guess the laws of supply and demand will be looking to separate this fool from his money right now.
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